SUPER BOWL - Giants vs Patriots

[dragon1952]

Yeah, I don't see this being the shootout they had in Week 17. I think the total is a little high at 54. Most first meeting shootouts this year were followed by lower scoring second matchups.

[hart attack]

I disagree about the total. I can easily see a couple of big plays, a couple of INTs from eli ( I see him overwhelmed) creating short fields, and the pedal to the metal mentality to keep trying to pour it on regardless of the score.

I am pulling for the Giants but have to play NE w/over.

I'll dissect props at three shops and find a couple of juicy ones as my main plays.

[widestrides]

Eli is no longer a deer in the headlights. He's reading the D, calling audibles, seeing the field, seeing the defenders, feeling the pass rush and moving and throwing much more accurately.

Brady and that O are going to be tough. They will move the ball and score. Giants need to make those FGs, not TDs.

Pats D is not that good. They are old and slow. No one can cover Plax. If they double him, Toomer and Smith will do fine. Giants will be able to score between 27 and 31.

Now, you have to ask yourself one question. Will that be enough?

I like the over.

I don't know which Giants D shows up. They could get rolled. Or they may play nickel the whole game and bend but not break.

Brady looked very bored in the Charger game. Maybe he was in some pain because of the ankle.

Pressure is on the Pats.

GL

[woodee12]

The way i look at the super bowl is as the largest public event of the year. I read a couple articles on this and the lines are adjusted to accomodate the public where as in the regular season, they are set for the sharps.

What is the largest public play? Favorite and the Over. So the oddsmakers shade the line that way.

Sharp bettors know there is not much value in the super bowl and it is just another game amongst the 1000's of a betting year.

But the Fav and the Over has alos won at a good clip in the past 10-15 years too so its not saying the public is not right sometimes.

So knowing this, I have to take a look at the Giants and the Under, but knowing I think the pats will blow them out, I may have to pass or just play the Under.

Most likely I will key on a couple props that have some value, such as the longest punt...It opened at 42.5 and I got an e-mail from Kevin O'Neil b/c I am a Max sunscriber saying to bang the OVER hard. Within minutes, it was off the board, Not even on the board at my books, and now it is up to 49.5 (-210). The under is +170 and I think worth a shot.

Personally I think you can find better betting value on the props and paly a few of those rather than playing the game itself. And certianly I will not put more than 1/2 unit on any play involving the super bowl--There is probably a hoops game that day that may be worth a shot over than the de-valued SB.

(I got some of this info from Robert Ferringo over at Docs sports from his article posted the other day on super bowl betting-check it out for more great info-I gave you the cliff notes version.)

[Dinger]

I still think Las Vegas is way off on the spread.

Neutral Field laying -14

If this game was in New England would you lay -17 ????

If this game was in New York would you lay 11 on the road???

I think the odds maker was going off the past like mentioned above....public historically loves favorite and the over and there is a huge value
going Dog and the under.

I give this game NYG plus the points 3***'s.

If you got it early NYG +14 then 4****'s.

I went 3-0 on 4**** picks this year....didn't have any 5* picks.

I'm also 7-3 (70%) this post season....and about 48% regular season (sub-par)...

Good luck all!!!

[dragon1952]

Well the SB has been known for high scores but looking back on the past year.
Out of all the games where teams faced each other twice:
1) There were 15 times where the total of game 1 was over 50. Only twice was the total in the second game higher than the first game. (and one of those was Jax/Hou...a meaning less game for Jax at the end of the year where Hou blew them out)
2) only 5 times were both totals over 50 (one of those was that Jax/Hou game)
3) only twice was the second total over the current SB line of 54 (with one of those again being that same Jax/Hou)
4) The average score in those 15 first meetings where the total was over 50 was a whopping 64.9. The average in the second meetings was only 47.6
5) Of the 4 pathetic teams NE faced twice, never was the total over 50 in both games.

What does this tell us? Probably absolutely nothing. This is the Super Bowl and you can throw out what happened in the regular season. Right?

I guess. But I think it does go to show that,
1) if you give up a lot of points in game 1 you might be more focused not to do it again.
2) You make adjustments to correct the previous games problem areas.
3) You are more familiar with what the other team threw at you last time.

So maybe all of this helps to keep the scores significantly lower in the second meetings. Maybe it doesn't apply here because it's the Super Bowl, I don't know but I still get the feeling this one stays under 54.

[dragon1952]

BTW, the line in Week 17 was,
New England Patriots -14.5
New York Giants 44

[Boone Moone]

Don't really have much time for a big write-up today but the more I look at it, the more I see the UNDER on this game as well.............The Patriots will pressure Manning like he didn't see from Dallas or Green Bay and his game will be turned upside down...........You'll see alot of Brandon Jacobs early, and some desperate passes late.........I got the feeling this will be a boring game by half time and you better stack alot of beer and eats to keep the party interesting.........This has the makings of a 38-10 victory for the Patriots, and I don't think the game will ever be in doubt.........Brady will pick apart the inept Giants secondary, something that I can't for the life of me --figure why the Packers and Romo didn't exploit.........These guys can't cover a spread offense, but nobody but Bellichick will figure that out.........I'll be very surprised if Brady doesn't throw for at least 350 yards in this game, but he may not have to the way Maroney's been trucking up and down the field.........A blowout boys, trust me on this one.

[widestrides]

I have to agree Boone. Even as a Giants fan, I felt we had a good chance to sneak past Tampa, but I thought it would end in Dallas and certainly in Green Bay. It has been a fun ride as a result of the surprise nature of the victories, since I was prepareds for the worst.

Despite having the lesser of the talent, the NY coaches have out-coached their counterparts in Dallas and Green Bay. I don't expect we can out-coach Belichick,

I've been surprised that we have been able to somehow cover the weakness in our secondary. But Webster and Ross are getting better every week and Madison is back. That makes a decent nickel. Wilson is good but Butler is awful.

Can we double Moss and take him out of the game like Jax and SD have done and contain NE to Welker, Faulk and Maroney and FGs instead of TDs? That's the key.

And on O, Eli we will have to have a mixed attack and have better redzone efficiency than the Pats. With Plax, Toomer, Smith, Boss, Jacobs and Bradshaw, it's possible.

The NE O is championship caliber for sure. But not the D. They are old and slow in places and it may tell. They will have to find a way to take Plax out of the game or he will scorch Hobbs or Samuel worse than he did Al Harris.

I think the Giants can score 27-31 points. Problem is, I could see the Pats scoring 41 or more, unless the Giants play bend but not break and hold them to a few FGs instead of TDs and only 23-27 points.

Again, I am fearing the worst, but now I have this glimmer of hope that something special is brewing. This Giants team has a certain something now. Is it enough to overcome what is a great Pats team that is always well prepared and seldom, if ever, lets down in a big game?

[Boone Moone]

Nice write up 'Strides and Good Luck to you and your boys..........You know, deep down I think the majority of us are pulling for the upset and the underdog Giants along with Eli, I mean, who doesn't want to see Brady get his cocky ass knocked around and see Bellichick lose a big one for a change, and see the Patriots perfect season get ruined, but I lost of bets as a kid by letting my heart get in the way of my wallet -- and I think if they were gonna get beat this year, they would have already...........time will tell.

[RAW]

Good luck to you guys in the Super Bowl, nomatter which way you go....I probally won't even watch her after the Packers bowed out...I still haven't gotten over that hangover yet! As for a play in the Super Bowl, I've always loved taking the over in the second quarter...any jitters are gone by then and it usually has a good chance of going over. Oh well, winter is great time to study and make a game plan for the nest football season...I saw some very interesting trends in the past season that I hope are gold next fall.

[woodee12]

Where is the money going so far?

I saw 60-40 on the Pats at one book, but then I heard someone on ESPN say it is 5-1 money on the Giants.

What have you guys heard?

I am still liking the Pats myself and hoping the line drops more...Think the Public is loving the doig this year? But wanted to see you guys' opinion too.

[Bettorsworld]

There's a difference between where the "money" is going and where the "bets" are going. Remember, all of those sites and books that show betting percentages are showing number of bets. Not how much money has been bet.

I wouldn't use the public angle on a game like the Super Bowl. The public has a winning record in Super Bowls.......

Also keep in mind that the number didn't move from 14 to where it is now because the public all lined up and hammered the Giants......the betting was fast and furious when this game opened and it was ALL Giants action and mostly sharps.

I was sitting there when the game opened trying to grab +14.........it reminded me of that game they have at carnivals where there's a bunch of holes and a weasel pops his head out of a different hole each time and you're suppossed to hit the weasel on the head when he pops out.......only you keep missing......that's what it was like trying to get +14.

At any rate, while i like the Giants at +14, only one result would shock me Sunday....a Giant win by 20 or more. No other result would suprise me at all. Giants straight up, Pats by 3, Pats by 30.........I could see any of those results.

I have a feeling the game will have some drama though......

[khandor]

Contrary to some of you, the 'side number' looks pretty accurate to me ...

e.g. if it's -14.5 or more, I'm all over the G-men, going for their 11th consecutive cover on the road; if it's -12 or lower, anytime prior to kick-off, I'm gonna have to hit the Pats, hard; and, if it stays between -12.5 and -14, that's a very dicey call, either way, from where I'm perched, right now ... i.e. in the catbird's seat, +27.7 units on the NFL season to-date.

How have the Giants been able to mask their apparent weaknesses in the Defensive Secondary, against each of the Bays, in their playoff victories?

IMO, the 'uncomplicated' answer is ... their Front 7, right now, is as good (read, as ... super athletic, physical and fierce) as any group in the league, today, anchored by Strahan and propelled by young'ns Umenyiora, Tuck & Torbor (etc.) ... as is their Running Game with the tandem backs combo, Bradshaw (speed) & Jacobs (power).

Like Jeff says, I can see several different scenarios unfolding in this game ... but, the one which gives me the most pause to tread lightly in assessing this match-up, right now, is the still uncertainty involved with that protective boot Tom Brady was wearing (unexpectedly?) last week, and the effect his injury has had on the amount of reps he's taken, since then, with his usual 'Gang of Marauders on Offense' (i.e. re: the cohesiveness of their 'spread' & 'hurry-up' passing attack vs the Giants pass rush and their situational subs).

IMO, if Tom Brady is completely healthy, and in his customary rhythm with Moss, Welker, Faulk & Co., I don't see New England scoring less than 35 pts in this game ... which should be enough to win and get the cover, if the number stays where it's at today (-12.5) and the Giants' Special Teams don't return any kicks for TDs ...

but, if his timing is thrown off, by his inactivity since the Chargers' game, even just a little bit, then there's every possibility for the G-Men's Front 7 to hold down the fort again, like they did against the respective Bays ...

in which case ...

it will then fall, once more, at the feet of the Pats' veteran Defensive Unit, led by Bruschi, Wilfork, Seymour, Harrison and (my 2nd favourite defensive player in NFL history, Mr. Junior) 'Old Man' Seau ... to play the type of "tough, physical, smash-mouth" football, they are capable of, in the Red Zone, as though this was, in fact, the FINAL GAME of their pro careers! .... hmmmmmm???

... and, thereby, avoid the (cruel?) hand-of-fate which befell the St. Louis Rams, Feb 3, 2002 (6 years ago, to the day) when, as very healthy 14-pt favorites, they succumbed to an upstart team, led by an inexperienced QB, who completed 16 of 27 passes that day - for 145 yards with 1 TD - and marched his team down the field for the game winning score, while being named Super Bowl MVP.

Which way will things play out this Sunday?

IMO, this group of Patriots will only go as far as Tom Brady's health & Junior Seau's heart can take them.

In the end, will it be enough?

Boone is right ... only (Father) time can truly tell ... but, right now, it seems to me as though Destiny is calling out their names, Here & Now.

19-0.

[widestrides]

Yep, we can see this playing out many ways. I guess that means lay off of it and play some props!

One thing I wouldn't put any stock in is the Giants consecutive road victories. This is the Super Bowl. Both teams are on the road. The Giants aren't gettng any extra points because they are on the road.

Because the Giants have won 9 or 10 in a row on the road is not something I would give any wieght to in this game and I don't understand why so many people take such great comfort in it.

Remember, one of those road wins was in Giants Stadium against the Jets. And another was in London where the home team Dolphins really didn't have much of a home field advantage and had to travel long distance to host that game. So there are two asterisks on that record for the Giants.