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Tuesday Morning QB – Week 10, 2007
Divisional Matchups Highlight Week 10
For everyone from the purist to pooler, from Fantasy fans to the hardcore sports bettor, “Super Bowl 41 and-a-half” this week lived up to most every one’s expectations.
The Patriots juggernaut continues to roll, the Colts get their first loss and anyone who thought the speculative talk of the perfect season was getting a little out of hand before Week 9, get ready for an all-blitz that will rival even Dick LeBeau’s best package.
The highlight of Week 10’s card has got to be the 10 divisional games and in some of these instances it will mean rematches from earlier in the season. Basing bets on how teams played each other in the past five or six years, or essentially using trends, has a certain value to it but with all the free agency and coaching changes it is a nice advantage to use the previous meeting of the season as a tool to handicap this week’s card.
Let’s look a little closer at a couple of those divisional matchups:
The Jacksonville Jaguars game against the Tennessee Titans is at the top of this week’s lineup and the Jags need to be looking for a better offensive performance than in their first meeting. The only problem for the Jags is that their QB right now is Quinn Gray and unless they can either talk Byron Leftwich back onto their roster or persuade one of the retired CBS analysts out of retirement, it is going to be tough.
Week 1 was a hard-fought divisional win for Tennessee in its season-opener and the defenses will need to be stout in this rematch, but look for Vince Young and the Titans ground game to cause headaches for the Jags front seven that will likely be playing without Marcus Stroud. Stroud is facing a possible suspension.
The Jaguars led at the break in their season-opener vs. Tennessee but came up empty-handed in the second-half, falling 13-10 and ending a three-year win streak on opening day, but believe it or not, betting the "Over" this week may actually offer some value rather than choosing a side.
- The Jags have produced 8 overs and 4 unders in their 12 most-recent games.
- After a 13-3 O/U season in 2006, Tennessee’s early record this year is 1 over, 6 unders and 1 push.
- Tennessee has played 17 overs, 5 unders and 1 push in their last 23 games where the pointspread was three points or less.
Buffalo gets its first shot of the season at Miami and while the Bills have been a solid play in recent weeks as a few of their injured defenders return from injury, the team still must be a little nervous about becoming the first potential victim to a team that almost everyone in the NFL has proven this year that they can beat.
Miami’s offense in London last week was starting to resemble an English Premiere League team until the final bit when they scored a TD and gave bettors a backdoor cover, and one of the biggest speculations now is on the Dolphins possibly having a perfect losing season.
Here are some trends on this week’s matchup:
- The Bills are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
- The Bills have a 13-2 ATS record against the AFC East, excluding games vs. New England.
- Buffalo has a 6-0 ATS record in its past six meetings with the Dolphins.
- The Fish have recorded a 3-17-1 ATS mark in their past 21 outings vs. teams from the AFC East.
The Bills are listed as a 2.5-point road favorite at SPORTSBETTING.COM
Enjoy this week’s action and good luck.
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