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Handicapping a Wet Derby Track
Mudders Day ?
5/4/13
***Note that the below article was written for a previous year’s Kentucky Derby that also featured a Wet Track. The track is predicted to be wet for this years Kentucky Derby as well and while we do not have a write up detailing the mudders, rest assured Our handicapper is all over it. You can get his Derby Picks for just $20 or you can get the entire card from Churchill Downs Saturday for $35.
Also note that we have coverage for this years Kentucky Derby on the home page
They say that April showers bring May flowers, but not on May 1. It could still be raining heavily in Louisville, KY and that will have a huge impact on the Kentucky Derby. The vast majority of the field is untested on off going. There is really no way to know for sure who will like it. Horses that prefer muddy, sloppy, or good tracks are called “mudders”. Could we see a mud lark like Mine That Bird shock the world again this year? I can’t wait to find out. In the meantime, let’s look at some of the horses best suited to handle an off track.
Lookin at LUcky – The favorite looks geared to handle anything. He is a son of Smart Strike who has sired horses like Breeders Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now, Preakness winner Curlin, and Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. LUcky has a Wet Tomlinson Rating of 392. Anything over 300 is acceptable, so his number is superb. He worked well in the mud firing off five furlongs in 1:00 4/5. He won’t have a problem with any type of track.
Endorsement – With a Wet Tomlinson Rating of 454 you would think this son of Distorted Humor will relish a little give in the ground. Combine that with his Distance Tomlinson Rating of 381, and he looks like a huge threat to upset the apple cart in this year’s Run for the Roses. He has a short resume, but registered a powerful victory in the Sunland Derby over the previously undefeated Conveyance. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101 for that effort. The $450k auction purchase is improving. If it rains on Saturday his chances will be lifted.
Super Saver – This colt broke his maiden second time out by seven lengths over a sloppy track. Before that he was second to fellow Derby contender Discreetly Mine over a good track. His Wet Tomlinson Rating of 412 means he will have no problems whatsoever with a wet track; not that we needed the number to know that. This colt would run on glass if he had to, but we think his chances would be elevated if it rains on Saturday. The son of Maria’s Mon will have the services of last year’s winning jockey Calvin Borel. You can bet Borel will be doing a rain dance the night before.
Noble’s Promise – It would be very interesting to see this son of Cuvee on a wet surface. He has a massive Wet Tomlinson Rating of 468. That is the highest of any horse in the race. It appears that Kenny McPeek’s colt is sitting on a big effort after regressing in his second race of the year. Typically, the third effort after a long spell away from the track is a peak effort. He has displayed plenty of ability throughout his career. He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at two, and was second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at the age of three. He clearly has what it takes, and rain may be the wildcard he needs to get in the winner’s circle on the First Saturday in May.
Dean’s Kitten – Michael Maker’s son of Kitten’s Joy will be one of the longest shots in the race, but he is not without hope. Last out he took the Grade 2 LAnes End Stakes in his first effort over a synthetic surface and he will now tackle dirt. His daddy could run all day, and his Wet Tomlinson Rating of 337 is more than good enough. While not the same, he won a race over a soft turf course which would be the equivalent of sloppy or muddy on dirt. He is an X factor and he would really shake things up with a big run.
2010 Kentucky Derby Coverage
Kentucky Derby Handicapping Systems
Bob Baffert – Derby Trainer Profile
Mudders Day – Handicapping a Wet Derby Track
Kentucky Oaks Preview and Best Bets
Top Jockeys for 2010 Kentucky Derby
Top Derby Contender Sidney�s Candy Profile
Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby Trainer Profile
Kentucky Derby Favorite Lookin at LUcky – Profile
Kentucky Derby Head to Head Matchup Picks