The Chargers are a 3.5-point home favorite in this non-conference game with the total sitting at 55.5. The public has backed the Chargers, as they opened as a 3-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 3.5-point favorite.

After Week 1 the Cowboys are 0-1 and 1-0 ATS and the Chargers are 1-0 and 1-0 ATS.

The Cowboys were in the Sunshine State in Week 1 losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-29 where they were on the losing end of some Tom Brady magic at the end of the game. Dak Prescott showed he is back from injury with a huge game but the run game was not there to help him out.

The Chargers were in the Nation’s Capital in Week one beating the Washington Football Team 20-16. Justin Herbert had a good game and the bolts withstood the solid Washington defense.

The Chargers have covered the spread in four of their last five games facing America’s Team but they have not faced them since the 2017 season.

Plusses and Minuses

Many called the Dallas loss a win for the team since they were on the road, Prescott was huge, and the team covered as a 10-point road favorite. However, on the minus side the team only rushed for 52 yards and their pass D was not good, and they lost despite forcing four turnovers and only committing one.

Prescott was 42/58 in the Tampa game with 403 yards with three TD and one INT and was only sacked once. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb each had over 100 receiving yards and combined for three TD.

Ezekiel Elliot only rushed for 33 yards on 11 carries and 13 of his yards were on one run.

Dallas will be facing Joey Bosa and a Chargers’ defense that held Washington to only 259 total yards and 133 passing yards. The Dallas offensive line has some injury concerns but played well against the Bucs and need to do the same facing the Chargers.

Herbert Picks Up Where He Left Off

In the win over Washington reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert played well passing for 337 yards with a TD and an INT. Where he really was solid was leading L.A. to convert 14 of their 19 third downs.

Keenan Allen had 100 receiving yards and Mike Evans had 82 and a TD and they have to be a concern for a Dallas pass defense that gave up 379 passing yards and four passing TD last week.

While the Cowboys’ defense did not defend the pass well, they were solid against the run. L.A. only rushed for 90 yards in the win over Washington and while Austin Ekler led the team, he only had 57 yards and only averaged 3.8 yards per carry.

The Prediction 

While the Cowboys are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games the Chargers have covered in their last five games overall.

Dallas may have been close in the loss to the Bucs they lost despite Prescott passing for over 400 yards and they forced four turnovers. Herbert was legit in the opener and I look for him to have a big game.

Prescott will also play well again but the Chargers’ D will keep Elliot in check and the Dallas defense will give up some big plays. I see a pretty close one here but the Bolts are for real and they will win and cover sending America’s Team into an 0-2 hole to start the season.

PICK:  Chargers -3.5

They were supposed to play earlier in the season, but because of COVID-19, it was called off. As the No. 1 team, the Bulldogs opened as -4.5 point favorites with an over/under of 159.5.

This game will be fun, there’s no doubting that. It may not reach the level of Gonzaga’s win against UCLA, but there should be points and it should be competitive, as they are the two most-efficient offenses in the country.

While Gonzaga rates better defensively, Baylor has turned it up in the tournament and if it wasn’t for its COVID pause, it would probably be on the same level for the season in terms of metrics.

The big thing for Baylor is that UCLA kind of laid out a blueprint to beating Gonzaga. Sure, it involves hitting an overwhelming amount of shots, but that’s something Baylor can do, ranking first in the country in three-point percentage.

Despite facing some of the best defenses in the country on their way to the Championship, the Bears haven’t had many problems. They shot 11-of-24 from deep and 18-of-31 from inside the arc against Houston, numbers that could be replicated mainly because that’s something they’ve done throughout the season.

To win, Baylor will need to continue making shots, it’s as simple as that. It’s a given Gonzaga will score, it only depends on if Baylor can keep up. The Bears have a dominant trio of guards who can fill it up between Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler and MaCio Teague.

Mitchell has kind of taken over this tournament with his playmaking and defense, but the other two can be just as lethal at shooting, as well as driving to the hoop. 

However, Baylor is in this spot because it also has a variety of guys who can score and defend. Off the bench, Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer both shoot better than 40% from distance, and both have had some key performances in the tourney.

The Bears don’t really have a dominant offensive presence in the paint, but when all of their guys can drive and dish, that doesn’t really matter. Mark Vital will have a key defensive role because he can guard all positions, while Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Flo Thamba will likely deal with Drew Timme the most.

Baylor is playing good defense, but Gonzaga has scored at least 80 points in all but three games this season. Even though UCLA tried slowing the pace, Gonzaga’s efficiency shined through, as it has all season.

The interesting part will be how Baylor can deal with Gonzaga’s size because it will likely be bigger at four or five spots on the floor at all times. It didn’t bother UCLA because UCLA had a bunch of lengthy forwards. Baylor is built around a bunch of guards with four of their regulars listed at 6-5 or shorter.

That means it could be the game for Corey Kispert, who has struggled to get going in the tournament. He averages 18.8 points per game and close to 45% from distance, but he hasn’t really stood out the last few games.

If he can win his matchup against Vital or whoever guards him, that’d be a big separator. Either way, Timme remains a dominant presence and Baylor has an average defense against two-point shots.

No matter who Timme has faced, he can either back down the opponent and come up with a bevy of moves to get easy layups, or face the hoop and dish to his cutting teammates or ones sitting open behind the three-point line.

In addition to Kispert, almost everyone on Gonzaga will shoot it, albeit at a worse rate than Baylor. Jalen Suggs, a likely top-three pick in the NBA Draft, isn’t the most-efficient player, but he’ll launch it from anywhere on the court and he can get to the hoop whenever he wants.

While Baylor has an ideal backcourt to limit Suggs, it probably won’t be enough. Otherwise, Joel Ayayi, Gonzaga’s player of the game against UCLA, and Andrew Nembhard, will both shoot it and back down smaller guards inside the arc.

These teams match up fairly well in the backcourt, but the presence of guys like Kispert and Timme could be the offensive edge Gonzaga needs to win.

UCLA stayed competitive because it made shots, but it also got scoring from unexpected spots, especially from its big. If Mayer comes off the bench and hits shots and Tchamwa Tchatchoua can hold things down against Timme, Baylor will be in this game.

At one point, many thought the Zags would run through the Final Four, but after Saturday’s games, this one looks even more intriguing. The Zags have better overall numbers because of how they’ve dominated everyone on their schedule, but after the Bears cruised through Houston, there’s a clear path to victory for both teams. 

Gonzaga has a bit more size, but that probably won’t decide this game. If Timme can control the paint and Baylor can’t find an answer for him, Gonzaga will win. If Baylor can hold its ground down low and hit open looks on the other end, they will win. No matter what happens, there will be points between the best two offenses in the country.

Here are the score predictions from our model.

  
Baylor                   159.5          81   NEUTRAL 
Gonzaga                   -4.5          80 using full season data
  
Baylor                   159.5          77   NEUTRAL 
Gonzaga                   -4.5          72 data from last 4 games
  
Baylor                   159.5          71   NEUTRAL 
Gonzaga                   -4.5          79 data from last 7 games

Baylor had an arguably more difficult schedule en route to getting here, beating Wisconsin fairly easily, getting through a fight with Villanova and then doing the same to Arkansas.

According to seeding, Houston has had the easiest route ever to the Final Four. They snuck past Rutgers, handled Syracuse and then won after a late rally from Oregon State, none of them being better than a 10-seed.

No matter the case, these teams have been touted as top teams all season, as Houston has just three losses. The difference of course is that the Cougars also had a favorable regular season playing in the AAC, as they only had three games against NCAA tournament teams, Texas Tech and Wichita State twice.

The Texas Tech win was nice, but they didn’t make it past the Round of 32 for a reason and the stat remains, Houston hasn’t beaten anyone better than a 6-seed all season.

While the metrics like Houston, that’s still a troubling number, especially for a team who has been in a similar situation before. In the last tournament, two years ago, the Cougars were a 3-seed and lost to 2-seeded Kentucky in the Sweet 16. 

The big thing in this game is that Baylor has a top-10 offense going against a top-10 defense in Houston. The Cougars maybe haven’t scored more than 67 points in their last three games, but they haven’t allowed more than 61 in their last five. Of course, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State aren’t on the same level as Baylor. 

The difference for the Bears is that they have a trio of guards who can often get any shot they want and they also have the best three-point percentage in the country. Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell all average at least 14 points per game, while one or two others usually seem to knock down a bunch of shots.

Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer both hit at least 40% of their threes off the bench in addition to being solid role players. Mark Vital brings experience in the paint, while Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Flo Thamba split duties at center. 

Houston has the bodies to defend the post and they’ll need to help often when Baylor’s guards consistently drive to the hoop. The Cougars are top 10 in the country in a lot of defensive stats, including block percentage, which could be huge in detracting guys like Mitchell and Butler from driving every other possession.

The other end of the court shouldn’t be ignored, though, because scoring isn’t guaranteed for Houston. In addition to iffy offensive performances in the tournament for Houston, Baylor’s defense has also picked up the last few games. While Baylor will have a test against Houston’s defense, it’s not like Houston will score at will on the other end.

For the Cougars to win, leading scorer Quentin Grimes (18 ppg) will need one of his bigger games after making just 33.3% of his shots the last two games. That said, DeJon Jarreau has probably been their most important player, as he’s guarding the team’s best player and he runs the show offensively, averaging 10.8 points, 5.5 boards and 4.4 assists per game.

In addition to those guys doing their thing, Marcus Sasser has to have another good game after dropping 20 points against Oregon State. Otherwise, Houston’s scoring is sporadic from everyone else and not as reliable. Compared with Baylor, they don’t have multiple guys coming off the bench who can score 20 points on any given night.

Big men Justin Gorham and Fabian White have moments of controlling the paint, but they probably won’t be the reason Houston wins this matchup, and Tramon Mark is simply there to give rest to the three guards.

Houston is playing great defense and will be a test for a Baylor team that plays a lot of one-man basketball, but winning this game is another story.

Combining the lack of challenges the Cougars have had this season with how limited their offense is at times outside of their top guys, and it’s hard to see them winning.

They’ll want to keep this as low scoring as possible and if Grimes or Sasser has an off night, it’ll likely be too much to overcome given Baylor’s high-end guards and depth behind them.

Score Predictions Below

Houston                  135.0          66   NEUTRAL 
Baylor                    -5.0          69 using full season data
  
Houston                  135.0          51   NEUTRAL 
Baylor                    -5.0          61 using last 4 games data
  
Houston                  135.0          66   NEUTRAL 
Baylor                    -5.0          64 using last 7 games data

The Bulldogs are putting in one of the best college basketball seasons of all time and are dominating opposition, while the Bruins have used a combination of luck and hot shooting to make the Final Four. Gonzaga opened as a huge -14 point favorite with an over/under 144.5.

If this game was played before the tournament, Gonzaga would probably be closer to a -20 point favorite. However, after a five-game winning streak, UCLA has jumped in the metrics and is now a top-20 team in the country, partly because of the Pac-12’s dominance in the NCAA tournament. 

Even with that success, it’s been a fortunate route for UCLA. They overcame an 11-point halftime deficit against Michigan State in the play-in game, got a couple favorable matchups, used a historically bad free-throw shooting performance by Alabama to advance and then gave up just 49 points to one of the most efficient offenses in the country while getting more than 50% of their points from one player in the win against Michigan.

Both teams have covered every game up to now, but Gonzaga’s run has been a little more ho-hum. The Bulldogs have had the highest spread in every round of the tournament and have covered every one.

In a game many thought could be their undoing, they throttled what was a good USC defense, not only scoring at will, but also by controlling the other end of the court.

The Zags continue to have the No. 1 offense in the country and their defense is now ranked no. 5 in terms of adjusted efficiency.

Because of that, UCLA doesn’t really have any advantages in this matchup going by the numbers. They used length on the perimeter to beat up Michigan, but that’s not going to work against Gonzaga, or at least, it shouldn’t.

The problem for UCLA is that while it likes to play slow, that hasn’t worked against Gonzaga all season.

The Bruins mucked it up against Michigan and it worked. But for the Zags, they’ve already had teams try to do that against them, as they’ve had at least 70 possessions in all but four games this season.

One of them was the win against Oklahoma in the Round of 32 and another was a 98-75 demolishing of Virginia earlier in the season.

The Bruins will try and make this game as ugly as possible, but that could backfire, similar to what happened with USC. The problem is that the Zags are almost a guarantee to score at least 80 points, having done so in all but three games this season.

Against the bigs of USC, they had no problem cutting to the hoop and getting easy buckets on almost every possession. In addition to Drew Timme having an edge against Cody Riley and company, the flow of Gonzaga’s offense will continue to get open looks.

And if Timme could get his shots against the Mobley brothers, there’s no question he’ll do the same against UCLA’s bigs, who battled foul trouble all game against Michigan. 

Timme has been the unquestionable winner of this tournament, scoring 75 points over the last three games to go with 12 assists. He’s seen every kind of defense and it doesn’t matter what teams do against him.

That’s because you can’t really double team him with the players around him. Jalen Suggs is the best NBA prospect on this team and almost had a triple-double last game, totaling 18 points, 10 boards and eight assists.

Corey Kispert hasn’t been talked about as much in the tournament, but he’s still shooting better than 45% from deep with Andrew Nembhard and Joel Ayayi two guards who do everything else.

UCLA has size on the perimeter in everyone but Tyger Campbell, who is listed under 6-foot. Given that all of Gonzaga’s starters are at least 6-4, that could be a problem.

Otherwise, UCLA should be able to match up at the other positions. The problem is that Campbell will probably be posted up frequently and then Timme will have an advantage down low against anyone he faces. 

On the other end, Gonzaga’s length and activity will be a similar problem for UCLA as it was to USC, who couldn’t hold onto the ball in the first half. They eventually figured things out, but given how UCLA’s offense looked against Michigan, it’ll be hard to back them in this matchup.

Riley may have a weight advantage down low, but he’s still not a guy who will take over a game, while Campbell isn’t a regular scorer from the point. Everything for the Bruins will depend on their three 6-6 forwards who are the reason they’re in this spot.

Johnny Juzang is the biggest threat after scoring 28 of the team’s 51 points, but Jules Bernard and Jaime Jaquez have each had big games over the past couple weeks.

In order to have a chance to win or even cover, all three of those guys will need good games and to hit close to 20 points. Kispert will likely get the job of taking Juzang first, but Gonzaga is good enough that they can switch everyone on the perimeter and it probably won’t matter who defends who. 

UCLA will want to slow things down, but unless Gonzaga has its worst offensive performance of the season, similar to Michigan, that probably won’t work. Mainly because if the Zags get out to a double-digit lead early, UCLA can’t keep playing slow and hope to catch up.

They’ll then have to pick up the pace and when that happens, their defense could become an even bigger problem.

The Bruins have played well up until now and while everything has worked to their favor, this may be the first time that things don’t work out for them, against a Gonzaga team who doesn’t know how to play bad.

Score Predictions below.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
    
UCLA                     145.0          72   NEUTRAL 
Gonzaga                  -13.0          75 using full season data
  
UCLA                     145.0          64   NEUTRAL 
Gonzaga                  -13.0          69 using last 4 games data
  
UCLA                     145.0          71   NEUTRAL 
Gonzaga                  -13.0          74 using last 7 games data

UCLA started this tournament by taking down another Michigan school, coming back from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat Michigan State in overtime. Since that halftime, the Bruins are playing at a level not many thought existed.

They entered the tourney with four-straight losses, but they’ve had the right combination and a bit of luck to make the Elite 8 with this being their hardest test yet.

Michigan has won games through versatility, taking down offensive-heavy LSU and then disposing of a defensive-focused Florida State team. This matchup is a little bit of both. The Bruins have suddenly jumped to be the 11th-best offense in the country based on adjusted efficiency, while their defense has done just enough the last few games.

That lack of defense could be the main problem in this matchup because while they beat Alabama, they also gave up a 56.1% shooting percentage inside the arc and numerous easy baskets, something Michigan just did against FSU. To have a chance at the upset, UCLA will need to hope Michigan falls back to earth and then maybe misses a couple key free throws.

Almost every matchup favors Michigan in this game. Hunter Dickinson has the size and overall edge over UCLA’s lone big, Cody Riley. Dickinson hasn’t been putting in huge numbers, but he’s still a key in the paint and leads the team with 14.2 points and 7.6 boards per game.

The bigger thing for Michigan the last few games has been the play of everyone but their stars. Despite barely averaging 10 minutes per game for the season, Brandon Johns has been as useful as anyone in the tournament, averaging more than 10 points per contest.

Chaundee Brown is another guy who failed to score double digits in back-to-back games all season but has 33 points over the last two. Combine that with usual production from Franz Wagner, Eli Brooks and Mike Smith, and they still have enough to win games without Isaiah Livers. 

In addition to having an efficient offense, Michigan also ranks top 10 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wolverines clog the paint with Dickinson, while Wagner and Johns limit anything else that’s nearby with Brooks and Smith pestering on the perimeter.

At some point, UCLA’s luck will run out and there’s a decent chance it comes against this defense. The Bruins are simply getting timely buckets and their best players score in every key situation, something that could change in this matchup.

Riley has done enough the last two games, but he’ll likely have trouble against Dickinson and he’s unfortunately the only true big UCLA has. It’ll be up to Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, Jules Bernard and Tyger Campbell to do everything offensively with a sprinkle of David Singleton.

Campbell runs point and will need to win his matchup against Mike Smith. Jaquez is probably their best all-around player, Juzang is usually the first scoring option and Bernard seems to hit every big basket. 

The couple advantages that the Bruins may have is that two of their guys should have a matchup advantage on the offensive end. Brooks, at 6-1, will have to guard a 6-6 forward, while Johns, at 6-8 and less athletic, will have to guard one of them, as well.

It’s likely Wagner will take out whoever is scoring the most, but in that case, one or two of Juzang, Jaquez and Bernard will have an advantage. That’s not a lot but UCLA needs any kind of advantage it can get.

The Wolverines are in a great spot to head to the Final Four unless something weird happens in this game, something that wouldn’t be surprising given the Pac-12’s dominance in this tournament.

UCLA will need an almost perfect game offensively to have a chance unless its defense steps up and does more than any of Michigan’s prior opponents have been able to do.

Check back for score predictions

This is the rare matchup that features two extremes going against each other. Gonzaga has a historically high two-point percentage (63.5%) and faces a historically good two-point defense of USC (41.5%). Of course, that won’t be the major talking point, as the Bulldogs are still undefeated and the favorite to cut down the nets in the Championship.

On paper, this is one of their more difficult games of the season, unsurprisingly, but they’ve already shown they can destroy good competition, beating Kansas by 12, Iowa by 11 and Virginia by 23 earlier in the season, in addition to the last few tournament games.

They seem to either blow out their opponent and even when it’s close, their offense is ultimately too much to overcome.

The fun part about this game is that USC is playing its best basketball of the season, dismantling both Kansas and Oregon in games that seemed to be over by halftime. The Trojans already played a WCC team this season, beating BYU by 26 points in December. While BYU put up some fights against Gonzaga, it still lost all three games by double digits.

If USC continues to score like it has been, this game should be close. Gonzaga’s weakness is defense even though it ranks seventh in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency. It allows points because of its preferred pace of play, though it’s likely the Trojans will try and slow things down to get the Zags off their usual game.

The biggest matchup will be the one inside the arc, as USC boasts two high-level bigs in brothers Evan Mobley and Isaiah Mobley, the former is in the running to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Both provide height and length in the paint, hence USC’s dominant two-point defense, as they combine for four blocks per game.

They also can score in a variety of ways, including from the three-point line. Evan leads the team with 16.3 points per game and Isaiah is averaging 15 in the tournament. Throw in what has been a good variety of guard production and help off the bench and it’s easy to see why the Trojans are here.

Tahj Eaddy runs the show and averages 13.7 points per game, but Isaiah White has gone up another level in recent games, scoring 22 against Oregon. Drew Peterson and Ethan Anderson do the little things, including hit threes, while Chevez Goodwin is another big who can spell the Mobleys.

The Zags aren’t as big as USC, but they still have enough size for that not to be a major issue. Drew Timme has probably his toughest task of the season against the Mobleys, while Corey Kispert will likely have to take one of them unless they play bigger with Anton Watson off the bench getting more minutes.

The big thing for those guys is to not get into foul trouble because while their starting five is dominant, they don’t have much of a bench. Their positive compared to USC’s prior opponents is that Gonzaga has size at the other positions, so bigger guards like White and Peterson won’t have the same advantages.

While both ends of the floor could decide how things play out, more will be talking about Gonzaga’s offense against USC’s defense. The Zags have been unstoppable this season because they have a big in Timme, who can seemingly get any bucket he wants because of the team’s drive and dish attack.

Everything around him is a well-oiled machine, as Kispert averages 46.2% from distance and all the other starters are willing to shoot. Jalen Suggs is a future lottery pick, but he hasn’t had the best tournament, while Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard are big guards who will drop 20 points if the matchup is right.

Gonzaga has been the more consistent offensive team this season, but it hasn’t really faced a defense like this with two towers roaming in the paint. There’s always the chance USC’s offense goes cold, like it has at times this season, but if not and it shows up on the biggest stage, this one should come down to the wire.

Check back for score predictions

If you threw out the regular season and the seeds, this matchup would probably be closer to a pick ‘em. Oregon State had some solid wins throughout the year, but it also lost at home to a bad Portland team.

Now, the Beavers are playing like one of the best teams in the country, throttling every offense in their path while making a good percentage of their free throws. One of their reasons for success, especially against Loyola Chicago, was a revamped defense that played mostly in a 2-3 zone.

Unfortunately, a 2-3 zone probably won’t work in this matchup given that Houston just faced Syracuse and won despite shooting 7-for-26 from deep. According to the overall numbers, Houston has a massive edge across the board, but there’s no reason to use full season numbers for Oregon State given recent results.

The Beavers weren’t overly efficient, but they did enough against one of the better defenses in the country in Loyola Chicago. Even though point guard Jarod Lucas, the team’s second-leading scorer, got into early foul trouble, they still found a way to get buckets and stay in contention in the first half. 

Ethan Thompson did most of the damage and was their only player above 10 points, something that could happen in what’s expected to be another defensive game. Outside of those two it’s a little unpredictable, but Warith Alatishe has had some big games and he managed a double-double in the Sweet 16.

Roman Silva is mostly there to provide a big body in the paint, while anything from guys like Zach Reichle or Maurice Calloo is usually a bonus.

Given OSU’s lack of true firepower, they’ll probably struggle to score again because Houston’s defense remains elite and hasn’t given up more than 60 points in any of its tournament games.

The Cougars play tight on the perimeter and have numerous big bodies in the paint to limit easy looks. For the season, they’re second in the country in effective field goal percentage on the defensive end.

What pushes them over the top is a variety of scoring led by Quentin Grimes, who averages 18 points per game. Despite that, no one scored more than 14 points in their win against Syracuse. That’s because everyone else did what was needed.

DeJon Jarreau runs the show and may be the most vital player on the team, Marcus Sasser is there to launch threes and almost everyone else is there to dominate the paint. Justin Gorham had the best game against Syracuse, but Fabian White and Brison Gresham are also available if Gorham gets into foul trouble. 

OSU will likely continue what they’ve been doing, using Silva and Alatishe to work the paint, while everyone else pesters the perimeter, similar to how Houston plays.

While the Cougars have been a better team all season, this matchup should be extremely tight and low scoring. The Beavers have played all kinds of defenses over the last couple weeks and so far, nothing has slowed them down enough to knock them off.

Here are the predicted scores from our model.

Oregon State             130.5          61   NEUTRAL 
Houston                   -8.0          65 data from full season
  
Oregon State             130.5          61   NEUTRAL 
Houston                   -8.0          53 data from last 4 games
  
Oregon State             130.5          66   NEUTRAL 
Houston                   -8.0          62 data from last 7 games
  
  

Baylor is in this spot because it can win no matter how its opponent plays. Wisconsin and Villanova have tried slowing things down against them, but clearly, that hasn’t worked as their defense and ability to score from every spot is too much for most opposition.

The difference in this game is that Arkansas wants to run, rating as one of the fastest-paced teams in the country. That’s worked so far, but they’ve won their last two games by a combined four points. 

Maybe the most telling matchup for this game was the 68-66 win over Texas Tech, who tried to muck that game up. Instead, it worked against Tech as the Red Raiders shot 29.3% from inside the arc, compared to 48.9% for the Razorbacks. The difference for Baylor is that it’s a better overall team, offensively and defensively.

Arkansas has a good defense, but Baylor’s offense is the third-most efficient in the country, mainly because it shoots better than 40% from three. But even when the threes don’t fall, like against Villanova when it went 3-for-19, that doesn’t matter because of their balance and that a lot of their best players can get a good look whenever they want.

The Bears are led by a trio of guards in Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell. Any of them can go for 20-plus points or finish with less than 10 and Baylor will win both situations.

That’s because one or two other players always seem to step up when needed. Adam Flagler dropped 16 points against Villanova after scoring six in the prior game, while Matthew Meyer was the opposite, going for 17 points and then six last game. With five guys shooting close to 40% from deep, that’s kind of what happens.

The last time Arkansas saw an offense this efficient, it lost to LSU 78-71 in the SEC tournament. LSU and Baylor are fairly similar offensively in that they get a lot of guard scoring and don’t have a big man to turn to in the post. The Razorbacks are built similarly, but they’re not as efficient and don’t grab a ton of offensive rebounds, ranking 12th in the SEC in that stat.

The question is who will step up for the Hogs if Baylor gets back in transition defense and they go on a cold streak.

They’ve gone 5-for-26 from deep in the last two games and probably won’t get the same easy looks inside the arc as they had against Oral Roberts. Justin Smith always seems to get his numbers, working around the paint, but it’ll be up to Moses Moody, JD Notae, Jalen Tate and Davonte Davis to win this game, or at least to stay competitive.

All of them are extremely inconsistent, even if Arkansas has won 12 of its last 13 games. Moody was a miserable 4-for-17 on two pointers against Oral Roberts, while Tate and Davis combined for nine points in the loss to LSU.

The bigger thing may be for Arkansas to not turn it over against a Baylor defense that forces more turnovers than most in the country. If the threes aren’t falling, Arkansas will only have one way to win this game, and that’s by cutting to the hoop and making two pointers.

The Razorbacks have the talent and tools to pull off the upset, but they’ll need to stay composed on both ends of the court and they can’t get out to a slow start like they have in recent games.

If that happens again, it’ll be extremely difficult to come back against Baylor, who is filled with veterans who don’t shoot themselves in the foot.

Here are the predicted scores from our model.

Arkansas                 149.5          74   NEUTRAL 
Baylor                    -7.0          79 using full season data
  
Arkansas                 149.5          58   NEUTRAL 
Baylor                    -7.0          69 using data from last 4 games
  
Arkansas                 149.5          71   NEUTRAL 
Baylor                    -7.0          77 last 7 games
  

Prior to winning three NCAA tournament games, UCLA had lost four straight in the Pac-12, all of them to teams who made at least the Round of 32. The problem is that Alabama is on the same level as those teams and much better than UCLA’s prior three opponents. 

The Crimson Tide have won eight-straight games and completely disposed of what was a solid Maryland defense last game, dropping 96 points with 16 made threes. Even though the Bruins are winning games, they aren’t playing much better than they have all season, as they’re simply winning because of matchups.

Looking at the numbers, this matchup will be similar to recent games against Colorado and USC in which UCLA failed to surpass 63 points in both games.

That’s not a great sign because Alabama ranks third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing less than 29% from three. That’s not good news for the Bruins, who have made at least seven threes in their last three games.

The main issue for UCLA in this matchup is that it won’t be able to use its overall size to its advantage because Alabama is also a big team.

Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez and Jules Bernard have all found success in the tournament as 6-6 forwards who can do a little bit of everything. Alabama can match up with all of those guys, which could be troublesome because the Bruins don’t have much scoring outside of those three. 

Big man Cody Riley had his best game of the tournament against Abilene Christian, but things aren’t going to be as easy in this game even though the Tide don’t have a true center. Riley isn’t at a level where he can take over a game and that limits his upside.

It’s similar for Tyger Campbell, who is more of a facilitator, as he has 20 points and 13 assists the last three games. UCLA is winning because its top three guys have been enough and then everyone else has helped where needed.

If Juzang or Jaquez struggles against a lengthy, athletic team who plays defense, it’s hard to see them scoring enough. The best chance for UCLA is if Alabama goes cold from distance and doesn’t make shots.

The Crimson Tide are kind of boom or bust offensively because they shoot a ton of threes, but the Bruins only do one good thing defensively, which is grab defensive boards. The worrying stat is that they finished 10th in the Pac-12 in three-point defense, a recipe for disaster in this game.

The Tide’s balance was on full display last game, as Jahvon Quinerly racked up a season-high 11 assists in 29 minutes off the bench. Jaden Shackleford and John Petty were the leading scorers, as has been the case most of the season, but the Tide also got seven made threes from their bench.

More so, Herbert Jones was barely needed in the win against Maryland. Jones is often the guy who puts Alabama over the top, as he averages 11.3 points, 6.5 boards and 3.3 assists per game along with the best defensive numbers on the team. At 6-8, he’ll likely be glued onto Juzang or Jaquez.

Not many expected UCLA to be in this spot and it’s going to take maybe its best game of the season to beat Alabama. In addition to playing better defense, the Bruins will need to continue their recent offensive success against one of the best defenses they’ve faced.

Since UCLA doesn’t really have a great post-up game, there’s not much to worry about for Alabama. There’s always a chance Alabama goes cold and doesn’t make shots, but even then, its defense could shine through and be enough to get them the win.

Our Pick – UCLA +6.5

Michigan would probably be a bigger favorite, but the absence of Isaiah Livers is still relevant. The Wolverines have played well without him, but the competition is only getting better. They still have one of the most-efficient offenses in the country, but Florida State has the best defense they’ll have seen without Livers. 

Both teams rank well on each end of the court, so there isn’t one noticeable edge for either team. FSU turns it over a ton, but Michigan doesn’t care about forcing turnovers, as its goal is to limit good looks.

On the other end, FSU fouls a ton, but the only player who draws a lot of fouls is Hunter Dickinson on the block. Maybe the biggest stat is that the Seminoles best defensive trait is limiting two-point opportunities, as they ranked first in the ACC in that area.

Otherwise, FSU finished first offensively in the ACC and Michigan finished first in the Big Ten defensively in terms of efficiency, so that will be a fun matchup.

As with any Michigan game, the starting point is Dickinson in the post because if you can’t stop him, you can’t stop Michigan. Dickinson isn’t putting up monster numbers like earlier in the season, but he’s still a massive presence and something the Michigan offense usually plays through.

Balsa Koprivica is FSU’s only regular player who is taller than 6-9, but Tanor Ngom could get more minutes than usual. If not, the Seminoles will likely lean on their overall size and double team Dickinson when needed.

The big thing for Koprivica is to not get into foul trouble because that’s why he played 11 minutes against Colorado. If he can hold his ground, Dickinson and Koprivica should provide a good back-and-forth battle in the paint.

Elsewhere, the overall edge goes to Florida State unless Michigan’s backups can again put in season-best performances in place of Livers. Brandon Johns and Chaundee Brown had two of their best games of the season against LSU, combining for 28 points and eight rebounds.

If they can do that the rest of the way, the Wolverines could be headed to the Final Four. Of course, it’s easier said than done, as those two rarely put in good back-to-back games. For example, Brown had zero points against Texas Southern prior to dropping 21 points on LSU.

The other issue for Michigan is that FSU has length all over the court, something that caused Mike Smith problems against LSU.

If Smith struggles again, Michigan will not only need production from Johns and Brown, but also similar numbers from Franz Wagner and Eli Brooks after they combined for 36 points against LSU. Michigan’s offense is a well-oiled machine, but the length of Florida State could be an issue. 

For FSU, RaiQuan Gray will likely be able to post up anyone who defends him, possibly Wagner and Johns. At 6-8, Gray’s listed weight is five more pounds than the 7-1 Dickinson if that says anything.

Elsewhere, Scottie Barnes has yet to have a breakout in the tournament, totaling 10 points through two games. He’s a 6-9 guard who Michigan doesn’t have a great matchup for unless they put Wagner on him.

No matter the situation, Mike Smith will have to guard someone almost half a foot taller than him because MJ Walker, Anthony Polite, Malik Osborne and RayQuan Evans are all at least 6-4.

These teams are both balanced, but Michigan has been the better, more consistent group this season. The absence of Livers could show up in this game, but the Seminoles will still need to score consistently, something LSU couldn’t do in the second half.

And if Michigan can’t get the same balanced production it had against LSU, it’ll likely be in a hole. Between two balanced groups with solid defenses, betting against the team without one of their best players makes sense, but then you have to hope Michigan’s bench players fall back to earth. If they don’t, the Wolverines could be headed to the next round.

Our Pick – Florida State +2.5