The Final Four matchup on Saturday, April 5th, between the Florida Gators against the Auburn Tigers, will tip-off at 6:09 pm est. Florida enters as a -2.5 favorite, and the total is set at a lofty 160.5, promising a high-octane affair. Let’s dive into the predictive models, break down the stats, and deliver our best bets against the spread and on the total.
Predictive Models: Full Season vs. Recent Form
We’ve run the numbers through three lenses: full-season data, the last four games, and the last seven games. Here’s what the predictions show:
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Full Season Prediction: Florida 77, Auburn 85 (Total: 162)
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Last 4 Games Prediction: Florida 78, Auburn 81 (Total: 159)
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Last 7 Games Prediction: Florida 88, Auburn 80 (Total: 168)
The full-season model favors Auburn pulling off the upset, while the last-four-game prediction keeps it tight with Auburn still covering. The last-seven-game outlook swings back to Florida dominating. For this analysis, we’ll focus on the full-season and last-seven-game predictions to capture both the long-term trends and recent momentum heading into the Final Four.
Let’s unpack the key stats and simulate how this game might play out:
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Offensive Efficiency: Auburn (1.171) vs. Florida (1.184)
Florida holds a slight edge in points per possession, but both teams are offensive juggernauts capable of lighting up the scoreboard. -
Defensive Efficiency: Auburn (0.973) vs. Florida (0.965)
Florida’s defense is marginally better, though neither team is elite on this end. Expect points to come in bunches. -
Shooting Percentage: Auburn (47.7%) vs. Florida (47.3%)
A near tie here—both teams shoot efficiently, setting the stage for a back-and-forth shootout. -
Opponent Shooting Percentage: Auburn (40.6%) vs. Florida (40.0%)
Florida’s defense forces slightly tougher shots, but both allow opponents to hit at a decent clip, reinforcing the high-total vibe. -
Possessions Per Game: Auburn (71.1) vs. Florida (72.2)
These are two of the faster-paced teams in the tournament, which aligns with the 160.5 total and suggests a track meet. -
Schedule Strength: Auburn (12.8) vs. Florida (9.9)
Auburn’s faced a tougher schedule, potentially giving them an edge in handling Florida’s pressure.
For the simulation, apply Florida’s offensive efficiency (1.184) to Auburn’s defensive efficiency (0.973) across 72.2 possessions, and the Gators project around 83-85 points. Flip it, and Auburn’s offense (1.171) against Florida’s defense (0.965) at 71.1 possessions lands them in the 80-82 range. Adjust for shooting and pace, and we’re looking at a final score like Florida 84, Auburn 81—right around the full-season and last-seven-game predictions. (and the spread)
Our Picks
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Against the Spread (Florida -2.5): The full-season model has Auburn winning outright (85-77), covering easily as +2.5 underdogs. The last-seven-game prediction flips it, with Florida winning 88-80, covering the spread. Given Auburn’s tougher schedule and offensive punch, they’re live to keep this close—or even steal it. Our simulation (84-81) leans toward Florida but not enough to cover confidently. Take Auburn +2.5
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Over/Under (160.5): The full-season prediction (162) and last-seven-game outlook (168) both clear the total, while the last-four-game mark (159) dips just under. With both teams pushing the pace and defenses that bend more than they break, this game screams points. Our simulation hit 165, and the stats back an offensive explosion. Play the Over 160.5.
AUBURN +2.5
OVER 160.5
OVER 160.5