Packers Favored Over Bears in Week One Sunday Night Football

9/13/09

The NFL season is finally upon us and the rivalries will already be heating up in week one, especially in the NFC where we will see the Super Bowl contending Green Bay Packers taking on their rivals in the new and improved Chicago Bears with Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler behind center. The Packers are a 4 point home favorite with a total of 46.5. Keep in mind these week one NFL lines have been on the board for a month or so now. This Game opened -3 and 43.5 at most sportsbooks.

Last season was disappointing to say the least for both of these NFC teams. The Bears failed to get back to their title contending form with a struggling offense and less than impressive defense which has been where they have excelled in seasons past.

The Green Bay Packers on the other hand went through a serious transition phase with up and coming quarterback Aaron Rodgers taking over for future hall of fame quarterback Brett Favre who was traded to the New York Jets after basically being pushed out of Green Bay before the season beGAn.

The season started off pretty well for the cheese heads as they looked sharp on both offense and defense, but oNCe Rodgers went down for the rest of the season, so did the Packers as they failed to get in the playoffs after reaching the NFC Championship Game the season before.

Even though last season was a big disappointment for the Packers after having a great season the previous year with Brett Favre, this season looks like it could end with a Super Bowl title as the Packers have looked near flawless with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, a solid running Game and a defense looking to prove they are still force to be reckoned with.

It is a bold prediction to say that the Green Bay Packers will be Super Bowl champs with a quarterback that still has yet to play a full NFL season, but this could quite possibly be the Packers year if they can stay healthy and fend off other NFC powerhouses like the Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears.

This season will be a feeling out process for the Chicago Bears. The Bears have been known for their stingy defense and terrible offense for a long time now. They haven’t had a decent quarterback or core of wide receivers since they won the Super Bowl with Jim McMahon way back in 1985 when Chicago legend Mike Ditka was still coaching the Bears.

Those days of a dismal offense and not having a solid quarterback behind center in Chicago might be over after the addition of Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler.

The breakup of the Denver Broncos this off season has been well documented from the firing of legendary head coach Mike Shanahan to trading Jay Cutler and now problems with diva wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Well that drama is over now, at least for Cutler, as the former Pro Bowler tries to revamp the Chicago offense with almost no proven targets.

No strong opinion here, but we’ll lay the small number with the Packers and Mr Rodgers. Packers -4.

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Boise State vs TCU

Fiesta Bowl

1/4/10

3* Key Release

It’s not surprising that both TCU and Boise State find themselves in a BCS bowl Game after the season both teams had. The surprising part is that they are facing each other in this year’s Fiesta Bowl. I know both mid major teams would have preferred to of faced a team like Alabama or Ohio State, but they still have a lot to prove by winning a BCS Bowl Game. Both teams have been trying to earn respect for their programs, and a BCS bowl win would do just that. Many people think that TCU is the best team in the state of Texas, and that they should be the one to face the Alabama Crimson Tide and it’s not hard to see why some people feel that way.

TCU has dominated most of their opponents all season long, and the Horned Frogs finished the season 12-0. TCU had some close calls early in the year, but in their last 7 Games they have dominated whoever was in their path. In those final 7 Games TCU outscored their opponents 329-73, and unlike the TCU’s of the last few years they were more then just a strong defense they had the offense to go with it. There is not a hotter team in college football then the Horned Frogs, and if Boise State is going to have a chance in this Game they will have to play strong on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos know exactly what it takes to pull the upset in a BCS Bowl Game. In 2006 Boise State pulled a shocking 43-42 win over the Oklahoma Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl in a Game that no one GAve them a shot in, so the Broncos are looking for the same result this Monday night in Tempe, AZ.

PRIMETIME MATCHUP

These TCU Horned Frogs have been known for their stout defense and the Boise State Broncos have been known for their powerful offense. The differeNCe in both of these teams is they are no longer strong on just one side of the ball they are a well rounded team on both offense and defense. The Horned Frogs offense is ranked 1st in the Mountain West in scoring offense and total offense averaging 41 points and 469 yards per Game, and the Broncos are currently ranked 1st in scoring and total defense in the WAC allowing 18 points and 299 yards per Game. This makes this Game extremely difficult to figure out, because neither team is weak in any way. This Game very well could come down to who is able to win the battle between Boise State’s offense led by QB Kellen Moore and TCU’s defense. Moore has thrown for over 3300 yards and 39 TD’s while TCU’s defense is currently ranked 1st in total and scoring defense allowing 12 points and 233 yards per Game. It is tough to figure out who has the edge in this matchup, but whoever wins this battle most likely wins this Game.

THE FINAL VERDICT

TCU is the better team here. Boise has the better offensive numbers with a blazing yards per point number of 10 offensively. TCU isn’t far behind with an 11.5. But where TCU really shines is with the defense. They have played some pretty good teams as well, in Utah and BYU and shut them both down, along with everyone else they have faced.

But these teams played in a bowl Game a year ago. TCU came from behind and won a 17-16 Game. That shows us that these two are on the same level. Yeah, it’s a year later, and yeah, both teams lost some players from a year ago, but the talent level is still on par. Both teams are very good, both teams are undefeated and both have a chip on their shoulder with plenty to prove. Under those circumstaNCes, we’ll side with the revenge angle here and gladly take a touchdown with an underdog that can certainly win this Game straight up. 3* Boise State +7 (released at +7.5)

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Betting Line Favors LSU Over Miss State

9/26/09

LSU travels to take on Mississippi State this week. The Betting Line at Bet 5dimes.com on this Game opened with LSU favored by 14 but the early money has come in on the home underdog Bulldogs forcing the line down to -12. Bettors are likely keying in on the fact that LSU has struggled a bit offensively and that Miss State closed the GAp last year only losing by 10 after having been blown out by LSU every other time they played this decade and beyond.

Many people thought coming into the season that LSU was the team to beat in the SEC WEST. If they are going to win the SEC WEST they have got to get things going on the offensive side of the ball. They come into this Game 3-0, but this offense has been less then impressive so far. They are currently LAST in the SEC in total offense putting up just 325 yards per Game, and find themselves in the bottom half in the SEC in every offensive statistic. That is not going to get the job done in the SEC.

The problems don’t just end there though. LSU finds themselves 9th in the SEC in total defense giving up 320 yards per Game. What makes that stat so surprising is they have faced Washington, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana-LAfayette. Washington and Vanderbilt are solid teams, but let’s face it they aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. If they have dreams of playing in Atlanta in the SEC Championship this year they need to figure things out on both sides of the ball and fast.

LUckily Mississippi State gives them a good chance to get things straight. Mississippi State comes into the LSU Game 2-1 with wins over Jackson State and Vanderbilt and their loss came at the hands of Auburn. Much like LSU Mississippi State has had problems with their passing Game. They are last in the SEC for pass offense averaging just 128 yards per Game. One bright spot for this Mississippi State football team is their running Game. They are 4th in the SEC in rush offense averaging 222 yards per Game. With first year coach Dan Mullen putting in a new spread offense it is going to take him a few years to bring in the players he needs to run his system, so Mississippi State finds themselves in a rebuilding stage for the 2009 season.

LSU’S KEY TO VICTORY

LSU has been known for always having a big strong defense. With new defensive coordinator John Chavis I don’t expect that to change. This Tiger defense is going to get better as the season goes on which is exactly what LSU needs, because their defense will be asked to come through with some big stops in Games since their offense is having trouble. Every LSU fan came into the season expecting QB Jordan Jefferson to pick up where he left off last year, but he has had problems getting things going this year. LSU’s offense is only putting up 174 yards a Game through the air and Jefferson has yet to go over 200 yards passing in a single Game. That is not going to get the job done in the SEC. You need to have balaNCe in your offense to succeed. Not only does LSU need to get their passing Game going to win this ball Game, but they need to get in a rhythm for the rest of the season.

MISSISSIPPI STATE’S KEY TO VICTORY

With this being a rebuilding year for Coach Dan Mullen not a whole lot is expected of this Mississippi State team. Mullen needs a few years to get his players for his system. You can tell just by the lack of a passing Game that he is struggling to find the right players to run his offense. They have proven that they can run the ball, but you’re not going to be able to win against LSU without a passing Game. LSU’s defensive coordinator John Chavis is one of the best defensive minds in college football and you better believe he is going to be committed to stopping the run and making QB Tyson Lee beat them with his arm. Tyson Lee has yet to even go over 100 yards passing in a single Game this year and he is going to face the best defense he has gone up against all year. If he is able to use the play action pass to make some plays in the passing Game they can stay in the Game.

THE FINAL VERDICT

LSU has had problems on both sides of the ball, but luckily for them so has Mississippi State. LSU is always going to have a solid defense, and I believe that defense is starting to put things together which is bad news for this Mississippi State team. DC John Chavis is going to stack the box to stop the run, and put QB Tyson Lee in bad situations. I expect this LSU defense to come up with a few turnovers and make up for LSU’s lack off production on the offensive side of the ball and get the victory. You really don’t want to get involved with laying too many points with a team that has yet to gel offensively, and Miss State did close the GAp last year, losing by just 10 to LSU, but we’re going to lay the number here with LSU in hopes that they won’t need to Scoremuch more than 17 to cover this -12. We also have some added value going against the line move here as the Game opened up -14. LSU -12

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Skip Holtz and the East Carolina Pirates

Invade West Virginia and Look to Send a Message

9/12/09

In a wide open Big East Conference the oNCe dominant West Virginia Mountaineers are among many schools that have chance to take the cake and the BCS Bowl bid that comes with it. Expectations are very high in MorGAntown. They will play their second Game of the year against the East Carolina Pirates, a team that also has big hopes for this year. The Pirates whipped the Mountaineers by a score of 24-3 in 2008 after downing Virginia Tech in their first Game. West Virginia will be thirsty for revenge in this Game.

It took a bundle of FGs to get it done, but West Virginia beat Liberty in their opener 33-20. New starting QB Jarrett Brown looked solid completing 19 of 26 passes for 243 yards and no touchdowns. Brown is replacing superstar Pat White, who broke 25 records at West Virginia. Brown has started a couple of Games in his career, and he led the Mountaineers to a win over Rutgers in 2007 that denied the SCarlet Knights the BCS bid from the Big East. Noel Devine was superb at RB picking up 112 yards and 1 TD on 17 carries. His longest run was for 24 yards.

While MorGAntown has always been proud of the offensive lines at West Virginia, there is cause for coNCern this year. They have to deal with the loss of two-time All American Ryan StaNChek along with a few others up front. Protection will be even more important with Brown taking over the offense.

Brown isn’t nearly as mobile as White was, but he is a better passer. Brown can throw the ball deep all day long, but that won’t matter if the line can’t protect him. They will also be counted on to make holes for RB Noel Devine. The junior back picked up 1,289 yards for an average of 6.3 yards per carry last year. He should improve on that mark this year.

The Pirates registered a narrow victory over Appalachian State in their first Game by a score of 29-24. Appalachian State was able to put up 17 points in the Fourth quarter. If the defense has that kind of collapse against Noel Devine and the Mountaineers it will be lights out. 8 starters are returning on each side of the ball for a team that finished 9-5 last year.

Patrick Pinkney returns to man the helm at QB. He was a bit rusty against Appalachian State, giving up 2 INTs while throwing just a single TD pass. Senior RB Dominique Lindsay had 105 yards on 15 carries and 1 TD. He has been relatively unheralded and would be a pleasant surprise if he is able to keep his production up. He is just one of several reliable runners for the Pirates.

Cutting down on penalties will be key for the Pirates. They were penalized 9 times for 109 yards against Appalachian State. They can’t afford to give that kind of advantage to West Virginia. Patrick Pinkney will have to shake off the rust and play better. He can’t afford to throw 2 INTs against this team. Defense will be integral for the East Carolina Pirates. They need to shut down Noel Devine and blitz the weak West Virginia offensive line. Playing on the road shouldn’t be a problem for the Pirates. They were 4-3 when traveling last year, and won the C-USA Championship Game while on the road.

We love the job Skip Holtz has done at East Carolina. Each year he has been at the helm, the team has won more Games than the year before. That is a direct reflection on him. We though last year would be the break out year as they started out with wins over WVA, Va Tech and Tulane but then they dropped the next 3. They rebounded nicely though, going 9-4 on the year but losing to Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl.

East Carolina is a well coached team that returns almost everyone from a year ago. The team is further along than West Virginia with Skip Holtz entering his 5th year while West Virginia enters year number two of the Bill Stewart era. East Carolina had been a puNChing bag for West Virginia up until last year, when they were dominated by the Pirates, failing to Scorean offensive TD. If East Carolina is here to stay, they need to prove it by sending a message to the West Virginia’s of the world. They are the same team as a year ago, and have the talent to go in and won this one straight up or keep it close at the very least. We’ll take +6.5 or better with that should be the better team in East Carolina.

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UCLA vs. California

Betting Line: Cal -8 o/u 48.5

10/9/10

Few teams started the reason as hot as Cal did. After starting the season 2-0 outscoring their opponents 104-10 and looking good doing it they made a trip to Nevada where they were really exposed by a solid Nevada team 52-31. They really needed to bouNCe back last week against a very good Arizona team, but they came up just short losing 10-9. After opening up Pac 10 play 0-1 this Game against instate rival UCLA becomes even more important and should play a big role in what kind of season the Bears have.

UCLA started their season the exact opposite compared to Cal. UCLA lost their opening two Games to Kansas State 31-22 and were shutout by Stanford 35-0. After those two Games it looked like UCLA was in big trouble especially offensively, but the Houston Game was the start of their turn around. After getting a win against the CouGArs the Bruins went down to Austin, TX and completely put it on the Longhorns winning 34-12 racking up 264 yards rushing. After that huge win UCLA they had every reason to come out flat against Washington State, but they went in took care of business and now they have a chance to prove to the rest of the Pac 10 that they will have a say in the outcome of the Pac 10 title.

KEY MATCHUP

It is no coiNCideNCe that when UCLA RB Jonathan Franklin started to get at least 20 carries a Game that this whole team turned things around. In their first two losses he carried the ball 13 times for 60 yards against Kansas State and 11 times for 73 yards against Stanford and was unable to find the end zone in either Game. UCLA is going to run the ball right at you no matter what. They know teams are expecting it now, but they continue to have success. They have found their identity establishing the run, controlling the clock, and shortening the Game. Their QB Kevin PriNCe’s main job is to get the ball to their RBs and not turn the ball over. He plays a role similar to Georgia Tech QB Josh Nesbitt plays. He is a threat with his arm, but has been asked to use his legs as much if not more. Cal is going to have their hands full with this rushing attack, but Cal is no slouch when it comes to rush defense. They are ranked 3rd in the Pac 10 allowing 126 yards a Game on the ground, but they will have one of their biggest tests of the season this Saturday.

THE FINAL VERDICT

The yards per point numbers here are even. Both teams are a 15 on defense, which is mediocre, with Cal weighing in at 11 on offense with 13 on offense for UCLA. Both teams have found the end zone without much trouble this year. But the Cal numbers defensively are deceiving. They GAve up 52 points to Nevada but just 3, 7 and 10 in their other 3 Games.

But with the number as high as Cal -8, we think there’s enough room here for UCLA. UCLA held Houston and Texas to just 13 and 12 points. It looks like defense will play a big role in this one, keeping the Game tight and the Score low. UCLA also has the added motivation of double revenge after losing by 20 points in each of their last two Games against Cal. Two recommendations here.

UCLA +8 and UCLA/Cal Under 48.5

Las Vegas Bowl

BYU vs. Oregon State

12/22/09

BYU came into the season with high expectations, and those expectations went through the roof when the CouGArs were able to upset #3 ranked Oklahoma in the season opener. While those expectations might have been unreasonable after the way we saw Oklahoma finish the year, BYU was still unable to have that BCS buster year, but they still had a very good year.

The CouGArs finished the year 10-2 with their only losses coming to a solid Florida State team and a TCU team that’s headed to the Fiesta Bowl. BYU finds themselves oNCe again in the Las Vegas Bowl where they have landed the last five years, but this year there is some extra motivation for Head Coach BroNCo Mendenhall with him playing the same Oregon State program that he played for as student athlete and coached as a graduate assistant.

He is 2-2 in Las Vegas Bowls, and would love to have a winning record after this Tuesday, but this will be a difficult task playing a very good Oregon State team who was one Game away from winning a Pac 10 Title. The Beavers finished their year 8-4 with losses to Cincinnati, Arizona, USC, and Oregon. Cincinnati and Oregon both find themselves in BCS Bowl Games, so strength of Schedule is not something to question with this Oregon State football team.

The last two years they had to win the last Game of the year against their instate rival Oregon to win the Pac 10 Title, but both years they were unable to do so. The good news for Oregon State fans is that is a sign of good things to come with this program, and a bowl win would help keep the momentum going.

PRIMETIME MATCHUP

When you think of Oregon State and their offense the first name that comes to mind is RB Jaquizz Rodgers. Rodgers has rushed for over 1200 yards and has 11 rushing TD’s on the year, but where the strength of this offense is their passing Game, and that’s where you attack this BYU defense. The Beavers are ranked 1st in the Pac 10 in pass offense averaging 275 yards per Game through the air. QB Sean Canfield has thrown for over 3,000 yards this season to go with 21 TD passes. This passing attack is very potent, but it all starts with the run and Rodgers.

Oregon State likes to pound the ball early to make those safeties cheat up then they beat you over the top. BYU is ranked 2nd in the Mountain West in rush defense allowing just 112 yards per Game, so whoever is able to get the best out of this matchup will have a great chance to win the ball Game. If BYU can stop the run and force QB Sean Canfield into passing downs where they can drop more into coverage and try to force some turnovers then they will have the advantage, but if RB Jaquizz Rodgers gets things going early and softens up this CouGAr defense then Oregon State’s passing Game should be able to beat this defense vertically.

THE FINAL VERDICT

No motivational edges for either side that we can see. In fact, both squads are likely disappointed to be here. Both had their sights set higher. Heck, BYU should be insulted at 10-2 to be put in a bowl Game before xmas! 10-2 should get you a New Years Eve Bowl Game at the very least! Oregon State can’t be too happy either. From the Rose Bowl to the Vegas Bowl. OUch.

The action on this Game has been one way. All Oregon State. The Game opened Oregon State -1.5 and now sits at -2.5 and -3 in some spots. We’re going to go the other way, however. Every way we know of to make a line on a Game, has this one as a one or two point Game. The two teams have one common opponent, UNLV. Both teams played UNLV on the road, at this very stadium, with BYU winning 59-21 and Oregon State winning 23-21.  This one figures to go to the wire so we’ll gladly take a field goal here with the 10-2 CouGArs – BYU +3 – buy the half if you need to.

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South Carolina Figures to Shut Down Georgia

Defense Key in This SEC Football Affair

9/12/09

The Georgia Bulldogs are a -6.5 favorite at most sportsbooks over the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Old Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier. The total on the Game has been holding steady at 38 in what figures to be a Game where defense will be they key.

Things didn’t go quite as expected for the #21 Georgia Bulldogs in their first Game of the year. They had to travel to play in a hostile environment against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and were soundly defeated 24-10. They were unable to stop Dez Bryant, arguably the best WR in the country. He made the secondary look silly posting 2 TDs and 77 yards. Their opponent for this week is South Carolina, a team that was locked in a defensive battle last week with North Carolina State. They came out on top 7-3. Last year’s bout between these teams resulted in a 14-7 win for Georgia. Both teams would love to win their first SEC Game, and this one will be exciting to watch.

Backers of the Georgia Bulldogs have reason to be coNCerned after last week. Many expected good play from new QB Joe Cox, but got just the opposite. He was lackluster completing 15/30 passes for 162 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. That was against a team that ranked 93rd in total defense just one year ago. There is no reason he shouldn’t have put up better numbers. If he doesn’t improve this week it could be bad news for the Bulldogs. The running Game wasn’t much better, picking up 95 total yards for an average of 3.2 yards per carry. The defense did well to give 24 points considering that the Cowboys have one of the most prolific offenses in the country.

I’m very worried about Georgia’s offensive power after last week. Will they really be able to overcome losing QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knownshon Moreno? Both were first round picks in the NFL Draft, and Georgia certainly hasn’t made me think so yet. The Bulldogs have been very successful under Coach Mark Richt, and have always done well running the ball. They typically get 2,000-2,300 yards per season. Establishing the running Game with vigor would go a long way towards helping the Bulldogs reGAin some confideNCe after last week.

The South Carolina Gamecocks boasted one of the best defenses in the country last year under Coach Steve Spurrier. They ranked 13th in total defense at 291.9 yards per Game and 2nd in passing at 159.2 yards per Game. Eric Norwood is a prized LB for the Gamecocks, and he almost entered the NFL draft this past year. It will be up to him to keep the intensity high and the morale of his teammates up. Norwood is 4 shy of the school sack record with 22. He is an excellent player. Defense shouldn’t be a problem for this team. A better question is, will they be able to put points on the board against Georgia?

They will need production from a running Game that has been weak in recent memory, and help from a new and inexperieNCed QB. The offensive line GAve up 39 sacks last year and needless to say they won’t go very far if they let Georgia get to QB GArcia on every play. South Carolina needs for the young GArcia to step up and have a big Game. If he can throw for big yardage then the Gamecocks could be capable of pulling the upset. If the Georgia defense doesn’t take him seriously then they will pay for it.

As we are writing this, this Game has just moved across the board. It was a solid 7 across the board but is now 6.5. You can be sure the move we just saw was the result of sharp action and we agree with the move. We’d naturally rather have +7 on this Game but will still take South Carolina +6.5 in a came they can surely win straight up.
 

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49ers Host Falcons

Two of the NFL’s Worst Teams Square Off Redskins at Panthers

10/11/09

We like to make refereNCe to the fact that if you can pick the straight up winners of NFL Games you’ll have a great shot at also covering the number. The straight up winners was something like 15-1 a couple of weeks ago, and oNCe again last week most of the straight up winners also covered. But that approach is certainly going to be tested this week as we have quite a few hefty favorites.

If it was as easy as picking straight up winners, we could just play the following.

Vikings -10

Cowboys -7.5

Eagles -15

Giants -15.5

Ravens -8.5

Steelers -10.5

Few would argue that the above teams are superior to their opponents. If the straight up winner covers most of the time holds true to form, You should get 4-2 or so out of the above plays. Of course what most people fail to consider is, if any of the underdogs in the above Games win outright, they also cover the number. The point being, it’s not always as easy as it seems to simply pick the straight up winners in these Games. As a matter of fact, don’t be surprised if one of the teams listed above, loses outright.

No official plays this week oNCe again, but don’t worry, they’ll come. When they come, you can be sure they’ll be solid, high percentage plays. In the meantime, let’s take a look at a couple of Games that almost made the cut.

Redskins +4.5 over Panthers – The Panthers really don’t deserve to be favored over anyone. Their offense can’t put points on the board and their defense has played terribly. The Skins aren’t much better thus far offensively, but they have been playing some defense. The Panthers are -8 in turnover margin and have an offensive yards per point number of 23.8 which makes them the worst offense in the entire NFL. Who is the 2nd worst offense ACCording to yards per point numbers? You guessed it, the Redskins.

But again, the Skins defense has been better than average. Worst offense against a decent defense, we’ll take the Skins. Oh, the Panthers defensive yards per point number of 12.5 would qualify them as the 2nd worst defense. Yikes. Under 37.5 might be worth a look as well.

49ers -2.5 over Falcons – While the Redskins and Panthers have been among the biggest disappointments, the 49ers and Falcons have been pleasant surprises. If you want to find good football teams in a short amount of time, look at turnover margin. We told you about the Panthers and their -8. Where might you find the 3-1 49ers? How about +6. The Falcons? +3. Yards per point numbers for both teams here are very good. Both teams are among the best in the NFL defensively using these numbers. The Falcons with a 21.6 and the 49ers with a 21.4 The Falcons offensive number is average at 15.9 while the 49ers number offensively is among the best in the NFL at 10.4.

What does this tell us? Simply that both teams are doing a good job of keeping opponents out of the end zone and making them work for their points as far as the defenses go. Offensively, it tells us the 49ers are making good use of the yards they GAin. Both teams have had the benefit of facing bad teams with the Falcons knocking off the Panthers and the 49ers knocking off the Rams. But it’s the 49ers that appear to have the better quality wins and the 49ers who are doing all the little things right. We’ll lay the small spot with the 49ers at home here. 49ers -2.5

Simple stats can tell us plenty about teams. We mentioned two of the most important in this article. Yards per point and turnover margin. Give me those numbers each week and nothing more and I can likely make a run for better than 53%.

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ST Petersburg Bowl

Central Florida vs Rutgers

Rutgers -2.5 with a total of 44 at 5dimes.com

12/19/09

The SCarlet Knights will try to make it 4 in a row in bowl Games when they take on the Central Florida Knights this Saturday in the St. Petersburg Bowl. Head Coach Greg SChiano has really turned this Rutgers program around. SChiano started a little rocky going 12-34 to start his tenure at Rutgers, but since then this football team has GAined some momentum. since then SChiano is 42-21 and has won his last 3 bowl Games.

Rutgers lost a lot of key players from last year’s team, so it looked like SChiano was going to have a rebuilding year in 2009, but that has not been the case. Rutgers got off to a bad start to their season with a 47-15 loss to Cincinnati, but now that win doesn’t look quite as bad after what the Bearcats have done this season. They were able to finish strong with an 8-4 record with their losses being to some very good teams in Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Rutgers is a very young team, so a win in a bowl Game like this could really build some momentum for this team, but they will have to play very good football because Central Florida is a solid football team.

The Knights are also 8-4 on the year, and have played a very difficult Schedule with Games against Miami and Texas. against Texas they were only down 14-3 at half, so this is going to be a very competitive Game Saturday night.

PRIMETIME MATCHUP

This is a tough Game to pin point a key matchup, because both teams are very similar. They run a very balanced offense where they like to run to set up the pass. Now whichever defense is able to take away the run it will make the opposing QB’s job a lot more difficult.

Rutgers is ranked 1st in the Big East in total defense allowing 312 yards per Game, and they are ranked 3rd in the Big East in rush defense allowing just 109 yards per Game. On the opposite sideline Central Florida also has a very stout defense. UCF is ranked 1st in C-USA in total defense allowing 348 yards per Game and they are ranked 1st in rush defense allowing just 83 yards per Game.

Both rushing attacks are going to have their hands full with their opponent’s front 7, so whoever is able to have the bigger impact running the ball between UCF RB Brynn Harvey and Rutgers RB Joe Martinek to open up the passing Game will have the best chance at getting the victory.

THE FINAL VERDICT

Central Florida’s defense has been very impressive all year in most phases of the Game, but the one place where they do struggle is pass defense. The Knights are ranked 9th in C-USA allowing 266 yards through the air per Game. Greg SChiano is a very smart Head Coach, so you know that he knows exactly where he needs to attack this Central Florida defense.

Central Florida’s offense should be able to have some success against Rutgers with QB Brett Hodges, but unlike Central Florida, Rutgers defense is solid in all phases , and their defense takes advantage of mistakes. Rutgers defense is 1st in the Big East in turnover margin with an amazing +20 differeNCe. In fact, they are #1 in the entire Country in that category. That also tells us that Rutgers offense takes care of the ball also.

This should be a great Game. Both teams worthy of being here, both solid, steady teams. While Rutgers leads the nation in turnover margin, UCF isn’t far behind at #16. If we had to point towards one Game that shows Central Florida has a great shot here, we’d use the Houston Game where they held a team averaging close to 50 points per Game to 32 points and beat them straight up, 37-32. UCF still looking for it’s first bowl win and we think they find a way to get it here.

This Game opened Rutgers -1.5 and the betting public has been steadily backing Rutgers from the get go, pushing the number all the way to -3 in some spots which is where we step in and back the dog. Central Florida +3

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UCLA 10 Point Underdogs at Tennessee

9/12/09

The Tennessee Vols get a crack at some revenge this week as they host UCLA in a Game that odds makers have them a hefty -10 point favorite. Last year the Vols outGAined the Bruins by almost 100 yards but found themselves on the short end of a 27-24 overtime loss.

Tennessee and UCLA are both teams that have seen better days. It has been many years since UCLA produced an NCAA record 8 straight bowl wins. It has also been a while since they have won a Rose Bowl, or even appeared in the event. With 776 overall wins, the Vols are the second most winning team all time in the SEC. They have won the national championship 6 times, the last time coming 11 years ago. Will either of these times rise to glory again soon? I can’t answer that question. I can however tell you that their Game this week could give us a much needed clue.

Want to make a statement in the first week with your new team? Try winning a home Game and putting up 63 points on the opposition while giving up a mere 7. Who cares if it was against the lowly Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky? 63 points is still 63 points. That is more points than they put up on any team in all of 2008. The Tennessee Volunteers have new life thanks to head coach LAne Kiffin. He is showing early on that his team may have some bite to go with the barking he has been doing during the offseason.

After registering their second losing season in Four years Tennessee looks intent to win after bringing in Kiffin and his coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin inherits a defense that was ranked 3rd after spending 26 years in the NFL. He will be able to impart plenty of wisdom to the 5 returning starters and the new starters. Safety Eric Berry was SEC Defensive Player of the Year in 2008. The junior is back this year. They won’t compete on the national scene just yet, but Kiffin is putting the pieces in place for the future. He was able to lock down a top ten recruiting class in his first year.

The UCLA Bruin’s football program is one that has been in disarray in recent years. They won only a single Game on the road in 2008 and that win came against Washington; a team that finished the year 0-12. Rich Neuheisel’s team is off to an OK start this year, winning their first Game over San Diego State by a Score of 33-14. Freshman QB Kevin PriNCe looked bad throwing for 176 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Sophomore RB Derrick Coleman picked up 69 yards and 1 TD on 4 carries. The offense was shaky in that win and will have to do leaps and bounds better to keep up with Tennessee. Coleman will be integral if UCLA is to pull off a win over Tennessee.

Defense will be the key to winning for the UCLA Bruins. They ranked 8th in the country against the pass last year, but were poor against the run at 89th. Overall they finished at 47th in total defense. DT Brian Price will be an asset for the Bruins. He will make plenty of noise on the defensive line. The linebacker corps is the strongest part of the team. Reggie Carter and Kyle Bosworth will both be a force. Bosworth is returning from a knee injury. Stopping the run will be crucial for UCLA. If the Volunteers are able to pound the ball then they will make short work of UCLA.

There’s a big differeNCe between a Western Kentucky defense and a UCLA defense. It’s nice to beat up on a lesser opponent to build confideNCe and get the kinks out but it can also backfire when the Vols find that things that worked so well last week, aren’t working this week. Anytime a team scores 63 points, the betting public automatically rides them the following week creating extra value by going against them.

Both teams return a fair number of starters from a year ago. UCLA should be a little further along with coach Rick Neuheisel now in his 2nd year. It takes some time for a new coach to get things rolling his way, which is the situation the Vols are in with Kiffin. We’re going to recommend two plays here. Tennessee +6 in the first half and +10 for the Game. This one should be a little closer than the number suggests.

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