Arizona State vs. Oregon State

Betting Line: Oregon State -3.5 o/u 56

10/2/10

It’s not easy being HC Dennis Erickson right now. The leader of the Arizona State Sun Devils has watched his team drop two winnable Games as underdogs against Wisconsin, and Oregon State. He will get a chance to help his team redeem itself as his Sun Devils travel to face the Oregon State Beavers. OSU enters this Game after a 37-24 loss to Boise State. They will be eager to get back on track after starting the year 1-2. Arizona State isn’t in much better shape at 2-2. Both teams need to win this Game. The Beavers have opened as a 3.5 point home favorite. Let’s take a look at some of the key players and matchups for this college football battle!

Oregon State won the last meeting between these teams 28-17 in Tempe, AZ. It was their first win at Arizona State in 16 tries. Oregon State was 4-2 SU at home last year and 1-23 as a home favorite ATS. The Sun Devils were 1-3 ATS as road underdogs last year. The Beavers are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 Games overall. The Sun Devils are 3-0-2 in their last 5 Games ATS overall.

The Arizona State Sun Devils amassed a whopping 597 yards, outGAining Oregon by nearly 200 years, but still lost 42-31. This was due in large part to QB Steve Threet tossing 4 INTs. There are very few teams that can overcome their QB giving the ball away that many times. Threet is the definition of a caretaker QB. This team will do most of its offensive damage on the ground. Freshman RB Deanre Lewis has been spectacular in his last two Games. He carved up Wisconsin for 122 yards on just 9 carries, and he had 127 yards and a TD on 11 touches against Oregon. He also caught 5 passes for 65 yards with a long catch of 43 yards. Look for HC Erickson to make sure the freshman is a big part of the offense.

The offense for the Oregon State Beavers might as well be named the Jacquizz Rodgers Show. The junior RB had 132 yards and 2 TDs two weeks ago against the Louisville Cardinals. He also caught a TD pass in that Game. He was far from spectacular in the season opener against TCU, and last week against Boise State. We can expect him to do much, much better in this Game. The Sun Devils have a solid defense, but neither is nearly as good as TCU or Boise State in that department. 

Sophomore QB Ryan Katz has done well in the starter role. He has passed for 460 yards and 4 TDs thus far in 2010. More importantly, he isn’t making costly mistakes. It will be very important that he maintains his poise in this Game. He’s got a great offensive line protecting him. This could be the Game where the Beaver’s offense finally shows what their truly capable of, and they will get to do so in front of a home crowd.

Junior CB Omar Bolden has played well for the Sun Devils. He grabbed an INT against Oregon and has 13 tackles so far this year. Two weeks ago against Wisconsin this defense was lit up for 203 yards on the ground behind powerful runner John Clay. Their main target this week, Jacquizz Rodgers, is probably a better RB. If they can’t stop him they have a small chance of coming out with the road victory.

The Beavers defense is giving up huge amounts of total yards, but that can be attributed to the fact that 2 of their first 3 opponents were TCU and Boise State. They’ve been overmatched. It’s tough to gauge how they will perform against the Sun Devils, but in 2009 this defense was solid. 7 starters are back from that team.

No strong opinion on this one for us. The Game opened Oregon State -5 and has been bet down to -3.5. We tend to agree with the move. Both teams have been putting up similar numbers, with no trouble finding the end zone yet quite a bit of trouble keeping their opponents out. One key stat to watch out for is turnovers. Coming into this one Oregon State is +5 and Arizona State is -4. If Arizona State can’t improve there, it will be the differeNCe in this Game.

Florida State vs. Oklahoma

Current Odds: Oklahoma -8 O/U 58

9/11/10

Great Games in this early NCAA football season are plentiful. Week two will pit the Oklahoma Sooners against the Florida State Seminoles. Retired HC Lou Holtz has said several times that he is looking forward to this Game more than any other. The former Notre Dame head hoNCho turned ESPN analyst thinks that FSU QB Christian Ponder is among the best in the country at what he does. Oh yea, and the Sooners are pretty damn good too! They’ve got a stud in QB LAndry Jones.

The Oklahoma Sooners were met with a bit of a scare in week one as they dispatched Utah State 31-24. This shouldn’t have been a close Game. LAndry Jones was a bit shaky, tossing 2 TDs, but also throwing 2 INTs. The hero of the day was RB DeMarco Murray. The senior rushed for 218 yards, 2 TDs, and a long run of 63 yards. If he hadn’t had a huge day the BCS Title hopes of the Sooners could’ve come to a shocking end. Bob Stoops will almost certainly have his team much more fired up and ready for this non-Conference home Game. Stoops will be tasked with trying to put up points on FSU’s new defensive coordinator who also happens to be his brother; Mark Stoops.

The coaching situation at Florida State is an interesting one. Jimbo Fisher had taken on a large role in years past, but he is now official the top man for the Seminoles. The former LSU defensive coordinator guided his team to an easy win against Samford in the first week of play. He will have his boys pumped up for this Game. Getting a win here would really verify him as a leader and a HC. Winning this Game for FSU starts with QB Christian Ponder. The 6-3 227 senior is capable of putting up big numbers. He will be matched up against a Sooners secondary that isn’t as good as it was in 2009, but is strong nonetheless. The Seminoles can pound the ball with junior RB Jermaine Thomas. He rushed for an average of 5.1 YPC last year and had 9 TDs.

SCoring points starts with DeMarco Murray for the Sooners. He had just 705 yards in 2009, but he proved in week one that he is more than capable of picking up some of the slack. Murray will be matched against a weak Florida State defense. Look for him to get at least 100 yards in this Game. If he matches last week’s numbers then the Seminoles are going to be in big trouble. Sophomore QB LAndry Jones is going to improve this year. He has the intangibles to be a great QB in the NCAA, but experieNCe is needed to season his talent. He has a nice stable of WRs to catch his passes. Perhaps the most interesting is freshman star Kenny Stills. He is a down the field threat. Junior Ryan Broyles is back at WR after catching a whopping 15 TDs for 1,120 yards last year.

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If Oklahoma wants to win this Game they will have to play a conservative type of football. Pound the rock and wear down a questionable FSU defense, and stop them with a gritty strong defense of their own. The Sooners have one of the best defensive lines in the nation despite losing Gerald McCoy. They will have pressure on Ponder the whole Game. LAndry Jones has to be an effective passer. This means not giving up a buNCh of INTs. Turning the ball over could cost them a win.

A Florida State win will start with a fiery effort from QB Christian Ponder. Every analyst on ESPN and elsewhere sings his praises, but he has to prove it by winning Games like this one. Is Jimbo Fisher ready to lead his team to a big win at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium?

Bottom line? The key to this Game will likely be the Florida State defense. They GAve up as many points per Game as their offense scored last season (30). The Oklahoma defense GAve up just 15 points per Game. Both offenses averaged 30 ppg. Both teams are largely intact from a year ago bringing back pretty much their entire offense and more than half the defense. We’d look to Oklahoma Games against Texas Tech, Miami, Kansas State and Stanford as indicators of what Florida State may be able to do offensively. The FSU offense is every bit as good as those mentioned. While it can be said Oklahoma was looking ahead last week, if Utah State can grab 24 points, then we can certainly count on FSU finding the end zone. Oklahoma was good last year, but far from the dominant 11 and 12 win teams of the previous 3 years. We’ll grab the points here. Florida State +8
 

2010 MAC West Division Football Preview

Looks Wide Open!

The Mid American Conference (MAC) West division was won by the Central Michigan Chippewas in 2009. They didn’t lose a single Game to MAC foes and ended the year 12-2 with an 8-0 MAC record. Things look to be MUCH more competitive this year. Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Ball State all figure to rise as strong foes for the Chips and all others in the MAC. Let’s take a look at the teams in the MAC West and their prospects for the 2010 college football season.

Western Michigan Broncos – This team returns 7 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters from a 5-7 2009 team. They have experieNCe at WR, but they have lost their top QB and RB from last season. Alex Carder takes over at QB. The 6-2 225 lbs sophomore figures to eNCounter both struggles and successes in his first year on the job. HC Bill Cubit has done well with RBs in the past, and his newest protege is Aaron WiNChester. The junior is small at 5-6, but he is a powerful runner with 1,000 yard potential. The offensive line will be stronger thanks to the addition of Michigan transfer Dann O’Neill.

The defensive line was very strong for the Broncos back in 2008. It wasn’t as good in 2009. The 2010 addition of this line is improved, but still not quite up to the lofty standards set in 2008. The DBs and LBs are both more experieNCed and better units this season. The out of Conference Schedule is a bit brutal with trips to Michigan State, and Notre Dame. In Conference they will travel to play Ball State and Central Michigan. Both Conference Games are winnable. The Broncos will be improved and a strong contender to win the MAC West.

Northern Illinois Huskies – After a 7-6 season that ended with a crushing defeat to USF in the International Bowl, the Huskies are back with 15 starters. The most important returning starters are QB Chandler Harnish and RB Chadd Spann. The latter rushed for 1,038 yards and 19 TDs while earning 1st Team All MAC honors in 2009. QB Harnish passed for 1,670 yards and 11 TDs. Look for vast improvement from Harnish this year as his offensive line will be just as good and the WRs will be much improved over last year. The secondary is the brightest part of the defense. The DBs get back senior CB Patrick George who had 2 INTs last year. The LBs also look sold with the return of Alex Kube who had 60 tackles and 6 tackles for a loss last year. The Huskies have a weak Schedule and should pull off an upset against a BCS team on the road. Look for them to compete strongly for the top spot in the MAC West.

Ball State Cardinals – Last year’s 2-10 record was a far cry from the great season in 2008 which started 12-0. This year the Cardinals bring back 11 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters. Look for marked improvement. QB Kelly Page had a rough freshman year, but the 6-3 211 lbs passer will get better in 2010. MiQuale Lewis and Cory Sykes are both back this year at R B. Eric Williams will also provide help in that area. The defense looks a bit shaky and may have problems in the treNChes. The Cardinals will play a tough MAC Schedule. They must host Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Akron. They have to travel to play Central Michigan. With so many starters back they can expect to win 7 and perhaps 8 Games with a bit of luck. Ball State will be a player in the MAC.

Toledo Rockets – This team brings back 12 combined starters after going 5-7 last year. They lose their starting QB and top rusher, but new QB Austin Dantin has some starting experieNCe. The sophomore passed for 962 yards and 4 TDs last year. New RB MorGAn Williams rushed for 444 yards in 2009. LT Mike vanDerMeulen is a future NFL player. The offensive line looks great with 100 career starts. The defense looks weak up front, but the secondary has the potential to grab some interceptions. The Rockets have the top offense in the MAC, and a defense that is getting better. 2010 is going to be a growing year for them. Toledo looks like a player in the future.

Central Michigan Chippewas – Butch Jones has left as HC after leading this team to a 12-2 record in 2009. New HC Dan Enos inherits 12 combined starters, but loses phenomenal QB Dan LeFavOur. Ryan Radcliff takes over at QB. The sophomore will be taking more snaps from under center than LeFavOur did. The RBs will be just as productive as they have been in recent years thanks to Paris Cotton. The defensive line and DBs both look to be weakened heavily in 2010. The LBs are the best in the MAC thanks to Nick Bellore and Matt Berning. They led the team in tackles last year and both had 3 sacks. Bellore had 2 INTs. This will be a rough year for an otherwise stellar football program. Fans shouldn’t expect much and may eNCounter a losing season.

Eastern Michigan Eagles – Most coaches would be enthused that 15 starters are returning, but its hard to get excited about starters back from an 0-12 team. This team has a nice RB tandem in Dwayne Priest and Alex Gillet, but that’s about it. The defense is horrid. The Eagles could be underdogs in all 12 of their Games this year.

The Mid American Conference West division looks up for grabs. Western Michigan, Ball State, Toledo, and Northern Illinois all have a shot at taking top honors. We will go with a rejuvenated Ball State to take this division in 2010, but Toledo is the team of the future.

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Other Conference Previews by Bettorsworld

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Oregon vs. USC

College Football Game of the Week

Betting Line: Oregon -6.5 o/u 71

10/30/10

It may be October, but there will be a Bowl Game played this week. Make no mistake, taking on #1 Oregon is a Bowl Game for the USC Trojans and they will treat it as such. HC LAne Kiffin’s team sits at 5-2 and as most know by now, they are banned from postseason play. What better way to make 2010 count than by downing the #1 Oregon Ducks? If they are able to do so it will be the 4th consecutive week in which a #1 team has fallen. This Game will take place at the Los Angeles Coliseum. The line open at 7 in favor of Oregon where it currently stands.

You aren’t hearing much about him, but QB Matt Barkley is playing well in 2010. The sophomore has quietly passed for 1,869 yards and 20 TDs. His Trojans enter this week after a bye. In their last Game they won 48-14 over California. Barkley had his best Game of the year, tossing 5 TDs while completing 25 of 37 passes for 352 yards. The Trojans have two reliable RBs in Allen Bradford and Marc Tyler. The duo combined for 4 TDs and 283 yards in a 32-31 loss to Washington. If all three of these guys are able to put together big Games against Oregon it could be lights out for the nation’s top team.

The USC offense has been excellent as a whole. They are getting 400+ yards in nearly every Game. In their last Game against California they racked up 602 yards. Much up this impressive work is done behind a stellar offensive line that has allowed just 6 sacks in 2010. They will have to click on all cylinders to win this Game, but it’s very possible for them to do that.

The Oregon Ducks have been largely unstoppable on offense. They are winning the war in the treNChes and have allowed just 2 sacks this year. QB Sophomore QB Darron Williams has passed for 17 TDs and 1,539 yards this year. The majority of the work is being done on the ground however. Sophomore LAMichael James is averaging a massive 7.2 YPC and has 971 yards and 11 TDs on the year. As if those two weren’t enough, the Ducks have yet another weapon in RB Remene Alston. He had 3 TDs in Oregon’s lopsided 60-13 win over UCLA last week. Senior Jeff Maehl is the top WR for the Ducks. He has reeled in 39 catches and 6 TDs for 530 yards.

The Ducks rank 12th in the nation in Points against at 15.9, but this paints a much rosier picture than reality reveals. Arizona State scorched them for 597 yards, and if not for winning the TO war by 5, they very easily could have lost. Stanford had 514 yards and looked unstoppable for a half. To their credit, the Ducks shut Stanford down in the second half. The Trojans are very clearly the best offense the top ranked Ducks have faced in 2010. They have threats all over the place. This is the Game where we will find out what Oregon is truly made of on defense.

Perhaps the most important matchup in this Game will be the USC defense against the Oregon offense. Can they stop LAMichael James? They allowed 538 yards in a loss to Washington, and 588 in a win against Hawaii. They did show potential last week holding California to 245 yards. The Bears lowest total before that was 356 yards. With an extra week of rest and knowing what is at stake, we expect a solid effort from the Trojans on defense. 

This is easily the college football Game of the week. It’s a fascinating Game for so many reasons. For USC, it’s the biggest Game they’ll play all year. It’s their “title Game”. USC coaches spent the bye week recruiting. Recruiting all over the country. You can be sure the last thing they said before leaving each recruit this past week was “tune in Saturday night and see for yourself what awaits you if you choose USC”. When Pete Carroll left town and the NCAA saNCtions hit, USC lost some luster in the recruiting ranks and even had players leave the program which has contributed to a lack of depth on this team. This Game is huge for the current USC players but even bigger for the future of this program.

It’s not exactly a small Game for Oregon either. They have a #1 ranking to defend as well as some recruiting power to GAin. When you have a giant down on the ground, you have to finish him off and drive the stake through his heart. Let him off the hook, he’ll likely come back and take you out. That’s the situation facing Oregon.

This Game is all about offense. Both teams are going to get their yards and points. No question. I wouldn’t expect a shut out this week! So it comes down to which team you’d rather have in a shootout, and for us, that team is Oregon. True, you have to consider Schedule strength and who they have played, but this team is putting on an offensive show unlike any we’ve seen in a major Conference in many years. (Sorry Boise, we said “Major” conference)

USC is giving up on average 402 yards per Game compared with Oregon who is giving up 331 and is also 12th in the country in points allowed at 16 points per Game. That puts Oregon in the top half of the country defensively while USC is in the bottom half in both yardage and points allowed.

You have to look at this Game and figure, despite what a huge Game this is for USC, if Hawaii, Washington and Stanford were able to average 35 points scored against USC, what’s Oregon going to do?

We simply prefer the Oregon side in a shoot out. Their offense is lethal. They can strike quickly and often. They can blow a Game wide open in the blink of an eye and they also have something USC doesn’t……depth. This team wears other teams down late in Games. Only one team has scored against Oregon in the 4th quarter this year. In fact, pay attention to the halftime line in this one. An even stronger play might be on Oregon in the 2nd half if the price is right.

The feeling here is that this is the year of the Duck. This is their year, and if they are going to win a football Game, they are likely to do it by double digits as they have in every Game this year. This is a big Game, no doubt. But it’s big for BOTH teams and we think the right side here is Oregon -6.5

UCONN vs. Michigan

Pointspread – Michigan -3 O/U 54

9/4/10

Anytime a team like UCONN, the football team, not the hoops team, gets to take on a program like Michigan, it’s a monumental Game. It’s a chance for the UCONN football team to validate their program oNCe again, under the national spotlight in a big time Game against a big time program. Winning a Game like this always does wonders for the recruiting efforts. Bottom line, expect a huge effort from the Huskies in what is without a doubt one of the biggest Games UCONN football has ever played.

But emotion alone can’t win this Game. You still have to have the talent. The last time UCONN had an opportunity like this was last season when they went into South Bend and knocked off Notre Dame in double overtime. This Game figures to be similar. Michigan has the better overall talent. as did Notre Dame. But the Wolverines are still trying to find themselves under coach Rich Rodriguez. They’re certainly not scaring many teams these days. In fact if you compare these two teams a year ago, you’d have to come to the coNClusion that they were fairly even. The one common opponent, Notre Dame, they both beat by similar margins.

The coaches in this Game, Randy Edsall and Rich Rodriguez are familiar with each other. They went head to head for 4 years while Rodriguez was at WVA. Rodriguez won every one of those, iNCluding the last time they met in a Game of huge importaNCe, 66-21, in a year that West Virginia contended for a National Title. You know that old saying, what goes around comes around? Food for thought.

The oddsmakers probably have this line right. These teams figure to be even. UCONN is at the top of their Game and is loaded with returning starters from last season. Michigan is still trying to find their way back to promineNCe, and is also loaded with veterans.

UCONN lost 5 Games last year, but no loss was by more than 4 points. They capped the season by beating South Carolina in a Bowl Game. Randy Edsall is one of the best coaches in college football today. We’d be shocked if he isn’t coaching a major college football power within the next decade. His teams play solid fundamental football, they don’t beat themselves. For Rich Rodriguez, the pressure in this Game couldn’t possibly be any more intense. Cam you imagine if Michigan starts the year with a loss to UCONN?

As mentioned above, the number on this Game, we feel, is ACCurate. That means, from a betting standpoint, we have to sit on the sidelines. This will be a good football Game. It should be a close Game and up for grabs in the 4th quarter. Having played in South Bend last season helps this veteran UCONN team. They won’t be intimidated by the atmosphere and the capacity crowd that’s more than double what their home stadium holds.

At the end of the day, we think Michigan comes away with the win. The line is 3 at most sportsbooks, however we have seen a couple of -2.5’s out there. At that price, if we had to play this one, we’d lay the number with the assumption that, if Michigan pulls this one out as we suspect, their likely to cover the small spot. No question this will be a great Game to watch to kick off the 2010 college football season.

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech

Pointspread – Boise State -3 O/U 50

9/6/10

In case you haven’t heard yet, the Boise State Broncos are bringing back 21 starters from last year’s undefeated Fiesta Bowl winning team. They are going to be VERY good. Last year they dispatched Oregon in the season opener. That would prove to be the marquee win before downing TCU to end the 2009 season. This year they will start their quest for a BCS Title against a wily Virginia Tech team. The Hokies played their first Game of the year in 2009 against eventual National Champions, Alabama. Frank Beamer’s squad played formidably against the Crimson Tide, but lost 34-24. That season ended with a decisive victory over Tennessee in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Despite the strength of Boise State, playing them is probably an easier task than last year’s opener. This year’s Hokies squad is clearly a better team. QB Tyrod Taylor is finally a senior. The athletic 6-1 217 lbs leader is always a threat to scramble, but he is also an effective passer. RB Ryan Williams set the NCAA ablaze last year racking up 1,720 yards and 21 TDs; as a freshman! Combine Williams with junior Derek Evans and you have an extremely potent tandem. Evans is back after tearing his ACL in 2009. The Hokies have the best combined rushing effort in the entire NCAA.

It’s odd that I started off talking about offense for this team. The Hokies are widely known for the bad ass defense run by defensive coordinator Bud Foster. Sure, the offense is great in 2010, but the defense is as good as ever. The defensive line is rock solid as are the linebackers. This team is known for an exceptional secondary and they have one this year. However, the members of the secondary are inexperieNCed. All in all, this team delivers a balanced attack. They will need to be on their toes if they hope to down Boise State.

The Broncos are immensely talented. That goes without saying. They wouldn’t have gone undefeated if that wasn’t true. ANChoring the offensive effort will be Kellen Moore. He was vastly underrated in 2009, but he won’t go unnoticed in 2010. He passed for an incredible 3,536 yards and 36 TDs last year while throwing just 3 INTs. To say that Moore is really good at what he does wouldn’t be doing him justice. Titus Young and Austion Pettis are both back at WR. They combined for 24 TDs recs in 2009. The part of the offense that could give the Hokies trouble is the running Game. It wasn’t spectacular last year, but the talent there for it to be much improved.

Senior DE Ryan Winterswyk is back after making 1st Team All-WAC last year. He will be the best player on a Broncos defensive line that was and is dominant against the run. It will be up to him to stop the Hokies extremely potent rushing attack. The DBs lose Kyle Wilson who recorded 3 INTs last year, but are otherwise a solid buNCh. From top to bottom the Boise State Broncos have the talent to compete with anyone in the nation.

This Game will be extremely important for both teams. Virginia Tech and Boise State both have hopes of taking the BCS Title, but the loser of this Game will be virtually eliminated from doing so. There will be plenty of blood, sweat, and tears not only from the winner but also from the loser of this Game. With that said, the key matchups here are going to be the Boise State defense against the Virginia Tech run and the Virginia Tech secondary against Kellen Moore and his stable of WRs. Whichever team is the most effective stopping the other will come out on top.

Boise State is a -3 point road favorite in this Game at 5dimes.com Sportsbook as of this writing . It will be their toughest test of the year as it’s all down hill from here. Seriously folks, their Schedule is a joke. They shouldn’t be considered for a National Title unless they beat every team on their Schedule by 40 points.

Don’t count on them getting by Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech plays a much tougher Schedule week after week, year after year, and they still have 6 straight 10 win seasons. They’ll be insulted that they are home dogs to Boise State. (ok not officially home dogs as the Game is at FedEx field, where the Redskins play, but this is far from a neutral site – Va Tech has the advantage) This is a National TV, Monday night affair. The nation will be watching and the home crowd will be in an absolute frenzy. We can’t pass up the field goal here folks. Virginia Tech +3  We also lean towards the Under 50

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Humanitarian Bowl

Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois

Betting Line: Northern Illinois -1 o/u 59

12/18/10

Bowl season gets underway Saturday and one of the best matchups of the day pits WAC 4th place finisher Fresno State against MAC runner up Northern Illinois in the Humanitarian Bowl. Both teams have put together good season with the Huskies checking in at 10-3 overall compared to 8-4 for the Bulldogs. Northern Illinois has lost HC Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Gophers and linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz has been named interim head coach. Kill bolted after the Huskies inexplicably lost to Miami in the MAC Championship Game as 20 point favorites. He leaves behind a team that is ready to rumble and redeem itself. The Bulldogs are here to fight for a win as well.

Northern Illinois opened as a 3 point favorite and at the time of this writing they are a 1 point favorite. The Huskies high powered offense averages 37.8 PPG compared to 30.0 PPG for the Bulldogs. The Huskies are allowing 19.1 PPG which is markedly better than Fresno State’s 29.2 PPG mark. This has been a great year for Northern Illinois backers as the Huskies have gone 9-1-1 in their last 11 Games ATS. Fresno State is 3-2 in their last five. The total has come under in three consecutive Bulldogs Games. It was over in 3 of the Huskies last 5 events.

The Huskies possess an incredible rushing Game that is headed by senior RB Chad Spann. The Indianapolis native has 1,293 yards and 20 TDs on 243 rushing attempts this year. He has come up short in big Games against Iowa State, Illinois and Miami this year. He failed to reach 100 yards in any of those Games and scored in just one of them. If he has a bad Game it may be too much for the Huskies to overcome. LUckily, Spann isn’t their only weapon. QB Chandler Harnish has 2,230 passing yards and 20 TDs this year. His top targets are Willis Clark and Nathan Palmer. The latter has 27 catches for 492 yards and 6 TDs. Clark has 38 catches for 517 yards and 7 TDs.

The Fresno State offensive attack is led by senior QB Ryan Colburn. His stats are stellar. He has passed for 2,529 yards and 21 TDs. He looked great in the season finale 25-23 win over Illinois where he racked up 3 TDs and didn’t throw any INTs. He will benefit from the return of Robbie Rouse who missed the bout with the Illini. The sophomore RB has 1,097 yards and 8 TDs on 191 carries this year. If we remove the goose egg this offense laid against Boise State their average PPG goes from 30 to 32.72. They can get points on the board. If teams like Toledo can drop 30 on the Huskies we expect that Fresno State won’t have much trouble finding the end zone.

Northern Illinois has a good but not great defense. It’s tough to gauge how tough they are considering most of their Schedule was against MAC cupcake teams. When playing Minnesota, Iowa State, Illinois and Miami they allowed 470, 403, 389 and 432 total yards. This sounds huge until one considers that the largest amount of points any of those 5 teams could muster was 27. The Huskies keep pressure on opposing QBs and they lost the turnover war only twice this year. 

When analyzing Fresno State we must consider that they were dreadful away from home this year. In 5 away Games they were 3-2 with a 6 point win over a 5-7 Louisiana Tech team and a 55-0 lose to Boise State. They were also scorched by 4-8 Ole Miss by a score of 55-38. Fresno’s defense was strong against the Illini giving up just 23 points. They sacked the Illinois QB 4 times. It’s tough to gauge how they will handle the Huskies offensive attack, but we have to think the Huskies will get theirs when push comes to shove.

As mentioned above, Northern Illinois will be without it’s coach, who moved on to Minnesota, as well as both their offensive and defensive coordinators who went with Hill to Minnesota. Now, that’s a big deal. We’re not going to minimize it. But it may not be as big of a deal as many people think. Coaching staffs are made up of a coach, an offensive and defensive coordinator, and then many, many assistants. Assistants that are eager and hungry. Assistants that have been waiting in the wings for their big chance. Assistants that know the playbook inside and out. All capable of driving the boat and hey, what a spotlight to show your stuff, a Bowl Game on National TV.

As far as the players go, players play. Something like this can be a rallying point. If you’re a 20 year old kid, do you think you’d go to your dorm room with your tail between your legs saying, “oh gee, we lost Our coach, we’re dead”. Or do you figure you’d instead get pumped up even more? I’d be surprised if Kill didn’t give them some sort of a pep talk before he left.

As for Fresno State, they have long been known as Giant killers. Pat Hill thrives on taking his shots at bigger more successful programs. Only problem is, Northern Illinois is no giant. In fact, they are the farthest thing from it. Motivation could be a problem here for Fresno.

As long as Northern Illinois is able to come out and play their Game, we think they come out on top. We often say there are many ways to come up with a number on a Game, and we know them all. Well, we’ve worked those numbers and each and every one of them comes up with Northern Illinois on top here, and by a decent margin.

Fresno played a Schedule roughly 6 points stronger then No Illinois. That’s figured into Our work. Turnover margin is another biggie here. Northern Illinois is a spectacular +10 on the year while Fresno State is -9. That’s a huge differeNCe folks.

We released Northern Illinois as a key release at -2.5 and informed Our readers to keep an eye on the line. If they listened, they got some extra line value as the number moved to -1. We’re a little coNCerned about the coaching situation, but hope it turns out to be a positive instead of a neGAtive. After all, it’s not midseason. Everyone knows what he needs to do. 3* Northern Illinois -1 Predicted ScoreNorthern Illinois 31 Fresno State 24

Missouri vs. Texas A&M

Betting Line: A&M -3.5 o/u 55

10/16/10

As a handicapper, you have to be careful not to get caught up in early season media hype pertaining to certain teams. For example, Texas A&M is 7th in the Nation against the run allowing just 81 rushing yards per Game. While that’s nice to read, what that doesn’t tell you is that they opened up the year against  Stephen F Austin (that’s a college for those of you not sure), LA Tech and Florida International.

Not that Missouri has opened the year with the toughest Schedule in the Nation, but they have beaten Illinois, who is looking pretty good, San Diego State, who is also looking pretty good and they blanked the first Big 12 team they faced, Colorado, 26-0.

The real season is underway for both of these programs now. No easy Games the rest of the way, so we’ll learn plenty each week from here forward about Missouri and Texas A&M. A&M has stepped up in class the past two weeks losing close Games to Arkansas and Oklahoma State.

The key to the success of Missouri thus far has been the play of their defense. They have forced 14 turnovers and rank 1st in the Big 12 in scoring defense. Nine of Mizu’s forced turnovers have come by way of interception and this week they face A&M QB Jerrod Johnson who has already thrown more picks this year (9) than all of last season.

Some of the line value in this Game is due to the status is Missouri QB Blaine GAbbert who sustained a high hip pointer against Colorado and left the Game and did not return. He is listed as probable but there is very little doubt he will play. He wanted to stay in the Game at Colorado. He will play. 

While much of the focus has been on GAbbert and his status, the real question mark at QB may be on the A&M side and Jerrod Johnson. He completed just 15 of 40 last Saturday and is under 50% on the year, with the 9 picks we mentioned above. Rumors are swirling about possible shoulder problems for Johnson. Last week, of his 15 completions, all but 4 of those were to the same receiver and of those 4, two came against a prevent defense. Now he faces a top notch defense in Missouri. It goes without saying that he’ll need to find more than one receiver if they are to have any success against the Tigers.

We like to say that in college football, the situations and the stats stay the same from year to year, only the names of the teams change. In other words, when we make a play on a Game, we are making that play based on statistical and emotional situations that exist. They exist every year. We are making plays based on the fact that over the long haul, Games we find matching those stats and emotional situations have proven profitable to us over the long haul. We expect to win 54 to 58% of those Games. Some years more, some years less. This is one such Game. We will win a Game like this more often than we will lose. What happens this week, is irrelevant. Though we hope it’s a win of course. We want to get Our readers thinking long term. It’s crucial to sportsbetting success.

Missouri comes into this Game with a yards per point number 12 offensively and a whopping 28 defensively. That 28 makes them the #1 team in the Nation in terms of defensive yards per point. A&M is a 13 offensively and a 15 defensively, and of course, we can’t ignore the turnover margin with A&M at -6 and Missouri at +5 for a differeNCe of 11.

One model we use that has been the most ACCurate this year in terms of predicting final scores, has Missouri winning this one straight up by a score of 24-18. We can’t pass up the +3.5 points here. It’s a spot where we have had an edge over the long haul, so, we play. Missouri +3.5

South Florida vs. West Virginia

Betting Line: West Virginia -10.5 o/u 48

10/14/10

Thursday night college football is a special thing. After a hard day at work, most sports fans excitedly await the start of the Game. Be it because they are a fan, or a bettor wagering on the Game, or both, these Games hold a special place in the week. This week we will witness two great Games. The one this article will cover is a Big East battle between the #25 West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1) and the South Florida Bulls (3-2). The last time these teams met resulted in a 30-19 triumph for the Bulls. Let’s take a look at some of the key factors for this Game.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are finally living up to the hype for the first time since Pat White and co won a BCS Bowl. They are the frontrunners to win the Big East. So far this year they have toppled Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Maryland, and UNLV. Their lone loss came against a stout SEC opponent in the undefeated LSU Tigers.

The Mountaineers have a dynamite RB in Noel Devine. The junior has incredible speed and is hard to tackle. He has 90 carries for 475 yards and 4 TDs this year. Expect him to make some noise in this Game. WRs Tavon Austin and Jock Sanders have combined for 4 TDs and 652 yards. The QB, Geno Smith, has completed 97 of 146 passes for 1,139 yards and 12 TDs. This offense has shown moxie by coming back from big deficits. They don’t quit, and they don’t give in. Expect them to get their fair share of points against the Bulls.

HC Bill Stewart has his Mountaineers playing good defense. They sacked the Maryland QB a whopping 8 times. In total they have 12 sacks this year. They will find it hard to get to mobile QB BJ Daniels in this Game. They are only giving up 225 yards of total offense on average. They have yet to play an explosive offense, so it’s tough to know how that number will hold up. The Bulls will be their best challenge so far in 2010.

South Florida is going places with Skip Holtz manning the ship. How long it will take them to get to the forefront is tough to predict. So far in 2010 they are 3-2 with losses to Florida, and Syracuse. They won Games against Florida Atlantic, Stony Brook, and Western Kentucky. Their last Game against Syracuse makes us wonder if they are ready for Big East play yet. They couldn’t beat Syracuse, the perennial cellar dweller of the conference. 

The USF QB BJ Daniel’s isn’t doing enough of what he does best. That is running the ball. He has had only a single Game with over 50 yards in rushing and that came against Florida when he had 107 yards. He has passed for 684 yards and 4 TDs this year. He has to be a dual threat for this team to thrive. Senior RB Moise PlaNCher has 289 yards on 65 attempts and 4 TDs. The offensive line was strong against UF, allowing just one sack, but has allowed 11 in the Games following that effort. This offense has potential, but they have to get some steam built up they are ever going to live up to their full potential.

The Bulls defense has been rock solid recently. They have 11 sacks in their last two Games, are allowing only 301 yards/Game on the year. They are very good against the pass, but could perhaps use some work stopping the run. They will have their hands full trying to shut down RB Noel Devine.

Both of these squads returned several starters from a year ago, particularly on offense where they both returned 9. South Florida returned just 5 on the defense, but with the defense playing as good as it is and the rest of both of these teams largely intact, we know South Florida can compete here. It’s always tough to make a call when you have two teams that have played mostly no one. They each played one team of note, LSU and Florida. Both lost and West Virginia looked better losing than South Florida did.

We have this one as a fairly low scoring affair which is surprising. When you think West Virginia football, you think buckets of points. But we have a predicted final in the 24-14 range favoring West Virginia. So, not enough of a margin for us to commit to a play, but we’d lean towards South Florida +10.5 and Under the total of 43.

Washington vs. USC

Betting Line: USC -10 o/u 61

10/2/10

Some thought Jake Locker should head to the NFL. He would’ve contended with Sam Bradford to be the #1 overall pick. Locker decided it was best to stay a Washington Husky for one more year. LUcky for the Huskies! Despite a slow 1-2 start, Washington still has a chance to make their season a good one. It could all begin with defeating USC, a team they beat in 2009. The Trojans are undefeated, but playing only for pride as they are banned from postseason play this year. Will new HC LAne Kiffin avenge last year’s loss, or will the Huskies strike twice? This Game will take place at The Coliseum and the Trojans are a heavy 10 point favorite.

In recent history the Washington Huskies have been a poor wager on the road with a 2-9 ATS record. They are just 1-7 in their last 8 Games against USC, with the only win coming last year. The Huskies are 8-17 in their last 25 Games ATS. The Trojans were a lousy 2-4 ATS as home favorites in 2009.

The Pacific 10 is one of the most competitive conferences in the FBS this year. Every single Conference Game will be important for members of the PAC-10. However, they may be a little less important to USC. We must consider the fact that they are playing for pride, and every other team is playing for a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Trojans have less iNCentive to wins Games because their fate is already decided. This doesn’t mean they won’t win Games. They’re an iNCredibly talented team, but their fate was decided for them long ago.

That being said, the offense is powered by QB Matt Barklay. The Trojans have an excellent tradition of great QBs, and Barklay is no different. The sophomore already has a full year of experieNCe under his belt. So far in 2010 he has passed for 941 yards and 12 TDs. He tossed 2 INTs in each of his past 2 Games, but other than that he has been rock solid. In the season opener at Hawaii he threw 5 TD passes! Senior WR Ronald Johnson has been his best target. So far, he has 249 yards and 5 TDs on 20 catches. This offense can also run the ball. Senior Allan Bradford had 131 yards and 1 TD in a win over Minnesota two weeks ago. Keeping points off the board won’t be an easy task for Washington. 

Senior QB Jake Locker is the key to the Washington offense. He is one of the most highly praised QBs in the FBS and a certain top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. The 6-3 Ferndale, WA native reached 6,000 career passing yards and 42 career TD passes in his last Game. Although he was shaken up by Nebraska’s incredible defense last week, he was near flawless against Syracuse two weeks ago. He passed for 4 TDs and 289 yards against the Orange. Expect him to keep up the good work. Junior WR Jermaine Kearse has been playing very well with Locker. Kearse has caught 16 passes for 338 yards and 5 TDs. Young RBs Chris Polk and Jesse Callier haven’t done their best work yet. If they can find new life in this Game it would do wonders for the Huskies chances.

USC’s defense has sacked opposing QBs 12 times in 2010. They aren’t getting many INTs. Overall, the defense has been hot and cold. They look really good at times, and just mediocre at other times. Washington’s defense has been abysmal. They allowed a whopping 534 total yards against Nebraska, and GAve up 408 to a leaderless BYU team.

It’s tough to go against  USC team looking to atone for last years loss. But with lackluster performances against Virginia and Hawaii, we’re not so sure we can trust the Trojans in this spot. The Huskies and Locker are going to be looking to get back on track after the embarrassment at home to Nebraska. The best approach for Washington here is one that shortens the Game. It worked last year. If they are successful, we give them a shot to cover this number, but more importantly, it keeps the Game under the total. The total here is as high as 61. The last 4 times these two played the total points scored was under 61, iNCluding last years 16-13 Washington win. We’ll call for one more under. Washington/USC Under 61