2011-2012 BCS Championship Odds

Posted below are the odds to win the BCS National Championship. We’re coming up on June as this is being written, which means in just a little over a month, we’ll turn Our attention to the #1 betting sport in the world, Football. As of this writing, there may or may not be an NFL season. But one thing we know for sure, the college ranks will tee it up come September and we’ll be all over it here at Bettorsworld.

It’s always fun to look back at these odds oNCe all is said and done. We always suggest looking beyond he top favored teams when looking for teams to wager on as the favored teams seldom come through and there’s very little value in backing a team at 4/1 or 6/1 odds before the season even starts.

If however, you’ve dome your homework and have good reason to believe one of the lower priced teams has a legitimate shot, by all means, make the play. For example, had you pegged Auburn as a potential BCS winner last season, you would have been rewarded at a price of 40/1. Now that’s a nice Scorefolks! Even their opponent in the BCS title Game, Oregon, was listed at 20/1 before the season started. Had you backed Oregon, you could have set yourself up to hedge a little and could have guaranteed yourself a profit reGArdless of the outcome of the title Game.

The Clemson Tigers of a year ago were a perfect example of a football team with talent that simply didn’t play up to their full potential going 6-7 and suffering their 1st losing season since 1998. When that happens, the blame has to be placed squarely on the shoulders of the head coach. Dabo Swinney enters his 4th year at Clemson and figures to be under a microscope from here forward. There’s really no room for error and certainly no room for another 6 win season.

Last year Clemson led eventual National Champ Auburn 17-3 at the half but ended up losing 27-24 in OT. That was the first of 3 consecutive close losses, losing to Miami Fla 31-21  and 21-16 at North Carolina. They then lost 4 of their last 6 Games all of which were within a touchdown with the exception of an embarrassing 29-7 home loss to South Carolina. They also lost a 31-26 decision to South Florida in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

This season, in an attempt to improve an offense that ranked 88th in the nation they bring in Chad Morris from Tulsa as coordinator. Morris runs an offense very similar to that off Auburn and Oregon which should give opposing ACC defenses lots of new looks. Tajh Boyd takes over at QB for Clemson behind an offensive line which is intact from a year ago and will also have a few returning targets at receiver.

The defense was #1 in the ACC in points against at 18.8 per Game and was #2 against the pass and #2 in total defense. While they lose several key members of that defense and have their holes to fill, it’s important to note that Clemson is one of those schools that will always have talent. They recruit well. You can be sure when starters move on, there are guys waiting in the wings to step in that in most cases are every bit as good. It all comes down to coaching.

The offense will have opening Games against Troy and Wofford to practice and further learn the new scheme under Morris and learn they better as they face Auburn in their 3rd Game, September 17th, at home. Auburn figures to be down several notches and Clemson figures to be sky high for their first big test of the year, so circle that date on your betting calendar. After Auburn their ACC Schedule kicks in and frankly, each and every Game on their Schedule is a winnable one.

It really all comes down to how quickly the offense can learn the new scheme and whether or not the defense can hold onto leads and not allow teams to come back, i.e.. Auburn a year ago. With the talent Clemson has year after year there can’t be any excuses. This team should win a minimum of 8 or 9 Games. There isn’t a single Game where you can say they are going to be outclassed. Anything less than 8 wins, I’d tell Dabo Swinney to pack his bags. Of their 7 losses a year ago, 6 were within reach. Turn those 6 close losses into wins and this team wins 10 or 11.

2011 Clemson Tigers Football Schedule

9-3-11 TROY
9-10-11 WOFFORD
9-17-11 AUBURN
9-24-11 FLORIDA STATE
10-1-11 at Virginia Tech
10-8-11 BOSTON COLLEGE
10-15-11 at Maryland
10-22-11 NORTH CAROLINA
10-29-11 at Georgia Tech
11-12-11 WAKE FOREST
11-19-11 at North Carolina State
11-26-11 at South Carolina

Georgia Bulldogs Football Preview Predictions and 2011 Schedule

After opening the year with a 55-7 win over UL LAfayette the Georgia Bulldogs proceeded to lose 4 straight, losing close Games to South Carolina, Arkansas, Miss State and Colorado. They had to play their first 4 Games without star wide receiver A.J. Greene, not just the best receiver in school history, but one of the most talented wide receivers to come down the pike in recent college football history. Many attribute that suspension, for selling an autographed jersey, to the downfall of Georgia last season. They went 5-3 their last 8 and earned a Liberty Bowl appearaNCe against UCF, where they lost 10-6.

In 2011, aside from having to replace Greene, they also have to replace key starters on both sides of the ball, particularly offense, but they do return QB Aaron Murray. Defensively they return 7 starters from a unit that was 23rd in total defense giving up just 22 points per Game and ranking 17th in the nation against the pass. They also finished +10 in turnovers ranking 19th in the nation in that category.

Certainly there is plenty to build on. The Georgia program isn’t used to 6 win seasons. Over the last decade their records show 10, 11 and even 13 win seasons. In fact, last years 6 win season was the worst of the last 10 seasons.

We’ll have a great idea of just where Mark Richt’s Bulldogs stand very early on as Georgia opens up against Boise State and then hosts SEC rival South Carolina in their 2nd Game. After those first two Games, every Game the rest of the way is a winnable Game. In fact, the Boise State and South Carolina Games are winnable as well. Georgia is a program that recruits well and will always have talent. While they had their worst year of the decade last year, no one but eventual National Champs Auburn was able to beat Georgia by a wide margin. They were in every Game they played.

The fact that they were competitive every time they took the field a year ago will likely present us with some nice spots to take a close look at Georgia this year from a betting perspective. Particularly September 10th when they host South Carolina. They’ll get a chance for revenge for last year’s 17-6 loss and you can expect added emphasis on the Gamecocks who most believe will be one of the top SEC teams in 2011.

In fact, all of Georgia’s chances for revenge will come at home this year as they also host Miss State and Auburn. There other revenge Game come with the annual Florida Game, played at a neutral site in Jacksonville.

Bottom Line? Despite suffering losses particularly on the offensive side of the ball, Georgia should be a contender in the SEC this year and has the potential to win 10+ Games. No question Georgia goes bowling and it will likely be a late December or early January Game.

2011 Georgia Bulldogs Football Schedule

9-3-11 Boise State @Atlanta, GA
9-10-11 SOUTH CAROLINA
9-17-11 COASTAL CAROLINA
9-24-11 at Mississippi
10-1-11 MISSISSIPPI STATE
10-8-11 at Tennessee
10-15-11 at Vanderbilt
10-29-11 vs. Florida @Jacksonville, FL
11-5-11 NEW MEXICO STATE
11-12-11 AUBURN
11-19-11 KENTUCKY
11-26-11 at Georgia Tech

11/19/11

If the Cincinnati Bearcats go down against Rutgers the Big East will suddenly become a free fall. Two of the teams with a chance to win the BEAST and the BCS bid that comes with that honor are Louisville and Connecticut. Yes, these teams have a shot in deep season. Despite the talk of the weakness of the conference, every team has a chance to become bowl eligible and that is remarkable. The line on this Game is anywhere from Louisville -1 to UCONN -1 depending on the book. So shop for the best odds.

Louisville shocked most everyone by taking down West Virginia two weeks ago in MorGAntown. They are a very well coached team with Charlie Strong at the helm. He’s got a few rings from his time with the Florida Gators. The Cardinals lack an offensive identity. They thrive on stopping the run are 12th in the nation Points against at 12.6 PPG.

Connecticut is a team very similar to Louisville, but not as good; at least not on the surface. The Huskies lost many starters after last year’s trip to the Fiesta Bowl. Despite that, they have not disgraced themselves with their play under a new HC so far in 2011. They have won 4 Games and were competitive in all but 2 Games this year.

A key factor in this Game is going to be Louisville’s consisteNCy. They have a hard time putting a complete Game together. For example, as previously stated the Cardinals are strong against the run. However, last week they allowed 200 rushing yards against Pittsburgh.

against common opponents Louisville is 2-1 while UCONN is 1-2 with the biggest differeNCe being West Virginia. Louisville beat West Virginia while UCONN not only lost, they were blown out, 43-16.

These two teams are near mirror images of each other statistically, with Louisville maintaining a slight edge across the board in most categories. Neither team has much of an offense while both teams have a pretty good defense.

Our model predicts a final score of 17-14 with UCONN on top. But rather than make a selection on the side in this one, the total may be the way to go. Louisville has played 10 Games to date, and 9 of those saw point totals of 41 points or less. Our model predicts 31q total points and while it seems to easy, let’s face it, these offenses for both teams have looked inept at times this year while both defenses have been very good. Under 40.5

Wake Forest vs. Miss State

12/30/11

This wasn’t the season Mississippi State fans expected. They ended last year strong and were expected to compete in the SEC West this year. Instead, they were a puNChing bag and finished with an overall record of 6-6. They will now take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons who also finished 6-6 in the Music City Bowl. Wake Forest enters the Game losers of 5 of their last 7 Games and are 6.5 point underdogs.

Mississippi’s States offense is powered by RB Vick Ballard. The senior ended the season with 144 yards on 23 carries for 1 TD against Ole Miss. He also had a TD catch in that Game. QB Chris Relf has had flashes of greatness, but his senior year has largely been a bust. He could rectify that with a strong bowl showing. The Bulldogs are 9-6 in bowl Games and their last one was a powerful 52-14 victory in the GAtor Bowl over Michigan.

QB Tanner Hill is coming on strong in the latter part of the year. The Wake Forest sophomore passed for 320 yards and 3 TDs in the penultimate Game of the year, a victory over the Maryland Terrapins. He will rely on senior RB Brandon Pendergrass for help. He carried the ball 20 times for 134 yards and 2 TDs against Clemson.

Defense is a strong suit for the Bulldogs. They rank 19th in the nation in Points against at 19.9 PPG. Wake Forest is much worse in that category at 27.8 PPG.

The loss by Wake Forest to Vanderbilt to end the year could be a warning sign to stay away. It’s not that they lost to Vandy, because Vandy has a decent team this year. It’s the fact that they lost 41-7 that’s troubling. But they did beat Clemson and GAve Notre Dame all they could handle. They also knocked off Florida State earlier in the year.

We’re going to back Wake Forest here, but it’s a weak call. Miss State has one of the best defenses in the country but we’re not so sure the offense has the fire power to extend any kind of a margin here.

The Under 48 may be worth a look here as well, simply out of respect for that Miss State “D”. They were torn up by Auburn and Arkansas but kept everyone else in check, iNCluding Georgia and LSU, a couple of teams known to scoresome points.

Wake Forest +7 or more and Under 48 total points.

9/10/11

9/10/11

9/3/11

Steve Fairchild enters his 4th year as head coach at Colorado State after taking over for a tough act to follow, Sony LUbick in 2008. After a 7-6 debut season, Fairchild has back to back 3-9 seasons to his credit. Even under LUbick there were down years, in fact, in his last 4 season LUbick won 3, 4, 6 and 4 Games. So perhaps there’s a little wiggle room for Fairchild if the mediocrity continues, at least for now.

The good news is that when you’re ranked 114th in the nation in scoring offense at 16.5 points per Game and 104th in scoring defense at 35 points per Game, it’s hard not to improve. Particularly when you have returning starters at key positions, such as QB Pete Thomas. But it’s hard to imagine much more than mediocrity. When you take a look at last seasons results, you’ll notice a GAp that’s a bit too large to close against good teams.

The Rams lost to Colorado 24-3, Nevada 51-6, Miami Ohio 31-10, TCU 27-0, Air Force 49-27, Utah 59-6, BYU 49-10 and Wyoming 44-0. It’s not as if they were close or knocking on the door. This was a terrible football team last year.

While we expect improvement, reaching a bowl Game and going 6-6 would seem to be a stretch. You can peNCil maybe 2 or 3 wins. After that, you have some guaranteed losses and some swing Games that could go either way. A 3-1 start to the year is not out of the question. Heck, a win over Colorado wouldn’t be a shocker. If they were able to start 3-1 or 4-0, the season may very well come down to the last Game of the year against Wyoming to determine whether this team goes bowling. We’re going to predict a 5 win season for the Rams, an improvement, but no bowl Game.

2011 Colorado State Rams Football Schedule

9-3-11       at New Mexico
9-10-11     NORTHERN COLORADO
9-17-11     Colorado @Denver, CO
9-24-11     at Utah State
10-1-11     SAN JOSE STATE
10-15-11   BOISE STATE
10-22-11   at UTEP
10-29-11   at UNLV
11-12-11    SAN DIEGO STATE
11-19-11    at TCU
11-26-11    AIR FORCE
12-3-11      WYOMING