Liberty Bowl Pick
West Virginia
vs.
Texas A&M
12/29/14
The Liberty Bowl is one of three bowls pitting the Big 12 against the SEC. West Virginia is a slight favorite sitting at -3.5 against Texas A&M for the Game being played in Memphis.
It’s a wonder how much Texas A&M is going to put into this Game. After starting the season at 5-0 and ranked No. 6 in the country, they have taken a dive with their only relevant win in the second half of the year coming at Auburn. The Aggies finished 7-5, but only 4-8 ATS due to heavy overrating after that hot start. They were handled by good teams to start the losing, and then closed the season by losing two home Games against two off-and-on teams, Missouri and LSU.
West Virginia also had a bit of a slow start after going 6-2 with a win over Baylor. With hopes of ruining some big bowl dreams, the Mountaineers lost on a late field goal to TCU 31-30 and then faltered against Texas and Kansas State. They got back on the winning side at Iowa State in the final week, but it wasn’t easy. After going 4-8 last year, it was a definite improvement for them with five Big 12 wins.
In similar opponents, West Virginia fought Alabama on opening weekend in a 33-23 loss, while Texas A&M lost 59-0 at ‘Bama in October.
The biggest news for this Game is probably the status of WVU quarterback Clint Trickett, who suffered two concussions toward the end of the year. Two weeks before the bowl Game, coaches gave his status as “in limbo.”
While Trickett has been a big part of this offense in his senior season, this is still a group that can run the ball and his backup sophomore Skyler Howard looked solid in action late in the season. Howard tossed for five TDs and zero interceptions, along with 483 passing yards and 85 yards on the ground in one half of action against KSU and a start against ISU. It helps that he’s throwing to guys like the beastly Kevin White (1,318 yards, 9 TDs), who has become one of the best WRs in the country as well as Mario Alford (888 yards, 10 TDs). The WVU running Game is solid too behind Rushel Shell (766 yards, 7 TDs) and Wendell Smallwood.
The fact that West Virginia has a balanced attack only means trouble for Texas A&M, as their defense is still lacking. On the other end, the Mountaineers have shown quality defense, but most of those positive Games were at home.
Texas A&M will be led by Kyle Allen at quarterback, who came in for the final Four Games of the season. He was big at Auburn with Four touchdowns, but failed to do the same against the better defenses of Missouri and LSU. His numbers across the board are worse than what Kenny Hill provided, but some of that is because of the easier early-season matchups. The Aggies have some playmakers on offense with Four receivers having at least 44 receptions; Josh Reynolds leads the way with 762 yards and 12 TDs. Their rushing Game hasn’t been as good this year with a committee splitting duty. Trey Williams leads the team with only 474 rushing yards.
West Virginia is a tough squad that showed their strength through the season, competing against every team, while that can’t be said about Texas A&M. Will the Aggies get back to their winning ways?
Neither one of these teams has been great in bowl Games, both going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 appearances. The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. the Big 12, 1-7 ATS in their last eight Games overall and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 neutral-site Games. The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral-site Games and 7-5 ATS on the year.
We’re using the side in this Game as a key release, so we’ll offer an opinion on the total instead.
It seems like a no brainer to go with the over here the way these two Scoreand allow points. However, we’re going to go against the obvious here and take under 67. Our model agrees, predicting around 60 total points scored.
Remember, this is NOT a key release. Simply an opinion.