Rose Bowl Pick
Florida State
vs.
Oregon
1/1/15
Well, this is it. The College Football Playoff has arrived and the Rose Bowl features maybe the most exciting matchup of any of the bowls this season. Oregon is a -9 point favorite against Florida State.
It’s Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston, the 2014 and 2013 Heisman winners, respectively. Florida State has won 29 straight Games including last year’s BCS National Championship. Oregon has demolished every team on their Schedule outside of their lone loss, while Florida State has eked out wins almost every week.
To further that point, the Seminoles are just 3-10 ATS on the season, which is a main reason they are such big underdogs here. Their biggest wins are against Louisville, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The overtime win against Clemson can be thrown in there, but Winston didn’t play in that Game. FSU has had a weaker defense this season, and Winston has been turnover happy, which has led to the close results. They have won their last Four Games by a total of 14 points.
Oregon is the higher seed, mainly because of their dominance. While they have that one loss to Arizona, they destroyed the Wildcats in their rematch in the Pac-12 title Game. The Ducks have big wins over Michigan State and Stanford, and on the road at UCLA and Utah.
At this point it looks like the only way FSU can win, or stay close, is if Jameis Winston has a great Game, which isn’t out of the question.
Winston isn’t having as good of season as his Heisman campaign, but he’s still winning Games. His 24 TDs and 17 INTs immediately shows the mistakes that he continues to make, but his 65.4% completion percentage is still solid. Turnovers will be big in this Game, and Winston has to limit those. He and his top target Rashad Greene (1,306 yards, 7 TDs) got a major boost when Oregon’s top DB, and one of the nation’s top DBs, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu suffered a knee injury in practice leading up to the Game.
The Seminoles run Game isn’t as good as last year’s, but they have picked it up in the last couple weeks with Dalvin Cook totaling 392 total yards in wins over Florida and Georgia Tech. Oregon’s defense can be beat, but they have been pretty stout lately, allowing 20 points or less in five of their last seven Games.
On the other end, Florida State tends to start slow and give up points early, and then come around later in the Game with the help of Winston on offense. The problem with that is if Oregon gets out to a big lead, they won’t slow down. The Ducks will stack on the points.
Mariota has had a great season and dominated the Heisman voting for a reason. He finished with 3,783 yards, completing 68.3% of his passes for an outstanding 38 TDs and only 2 INTs. In addition, he’s gone for 669 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. This is the best offense FSU has seen this year and this being Mariota’s final college Game, it’s hard to see the Ducks not scoring close to 40 points.
Also on the ground, Royce Freeman has been close to unstoppable with 1,299 yards and 16 TDs. In this offense, Mariota spreads the ball plenty, which is why five different receivers have at least five touchdowns. This is a speedy unit that can put up points fast.
Florida State has found ways to win all season, but Oregon will be a different beast. The winner gets a shot at the national title Game on Dec. 12.
The Seminoles are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl Games, but have not covered in five straight non-Conference Games. The Ducks have covered eight straight Games overall and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl Games.
Check back on New Years Day for a Pick on this Game.