Gator Bowl
Pick
NC State
vs.
Texas A&M
12/31/18
The Gator Bowl is a true matchup between the ACC and SEC as both NC State and Texas A&M finished with the same 5-3 record in Conference play. The SEC is expected to come out on top with the Aggies a -7.5 point favorite with an over/under of 58.5 (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) a week before the Game in Jacksonville.
NC State (6-6 ATS) had a good season, but it’s hard to gauge just how good it was after the West Virginia Game was cancelled. The Wolfpack beat everyone they needed to, but were crushed by Clemson and Syracuse in back-to-back weeks and ended up only having three wins over teams that made a bowl (Marshall, Virginia, BC).
Texas A&M (8-4 ATS) had a worse record, yet fans should be pleased with the first season Jimbo Fisher put together, culminating in the monster 74-72 7OT win over LSU. All Four of its losses came in difficult spots, almost knocking off Clemson early and the other three being on the road at Alabama, Miss. State and Auburn. Maybe the biggest problem in backing the Aggies is that they had trouble separating from mediocre teams in the conference, failing to beat Arkansas, UK and South Carolina by more than seven points.
Both teams showed a good defense at times, but while NC State has a better 22.7 points per Game allowed, it also had an easier Schedule. Even then, the Wolfpack struggled in their losses and gave up a brutal 7.6 yards per pass attempt.
That may be the best route for the Aggies to attack even though they love to run the ball. Quarterback Kellen Mond had some huge Games, but finished with mediocre numbers in 7.63 yards per attempt and 23 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He had a great Game against Clemson, but otherwise struggled against high-end defenses, and the good news is that NC State’s defense is average at best. Throw in an extra month of preparation with top tight end Jace Sternberger (804 yards, 10 TDs) and he could be in for a nice Game given Fisher’s prior experience against the Wolfpack. And while NC State has a good defensive front, running back Trayveon Williams (1,524 yards, 15 TDs) was a monster and averaged at least 5.7 ypc in the final Four Games, two of those against good Auburn and LSU defenses.
As for the Wolfpack, they have to work through the loss of offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz, who was hired by Appalachian State. Senior quarterback Ryan Finley has NFL aspirations and had a solid year with 8.38 yards per attempt (24 TDs, 9 INTs), but the loss of top receiver Kelvin Harmon (81 receptions, 1,186 yards, 7 TDs) can’t be overlooked. Jakobi Myers (89 rec., 1,028 yards, 4 TDs) also had a good season, but he’ll now be the top receiver and he averaged three yards less per catch. But similar to NC State’s defense, A&M also only stopped the run (allowing 3.2 ypc) while getting torched through the air. If Finley is fine without Harmon, there’s a chance he could thrive against a pass defense that gave up 8.5 yards per attempt for 25 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
A&M has more overall talent, but its pass defense could be an issue, especially with a spread this high as a back-door cover is always possible. It may depend on if Finley can weather the storm without his top receiver and that’s not something to take lightly, as Harmon is one of the expected top options in the upcoming draft class.
The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-Conference Games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl Games, but 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the SEC. The Aggies have covered in their last seven non-Conference Games, but are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the ACC.
Our Pick – NC State +7