TCU vs. WVA Free Pick with ATS Trends

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11/10/18

 

West Virginia threw its hat into the College Football Playoff conversation after escaping past Texas by one point last weekend. There’s still a long way to go for the Mountaineers with the two Oklahoma schools up next following TCU. For this one, the Mountaineers were -12 point home favorites with an over/under of 56 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

It was the opposite situation last year as TCU was a 12-point home favorite and won 31-24. That said, this one feels a little different as the Horned Frogs have a losing record and didn’t look good in either of their Big 12 road Games, losing 31-16 at Texas and 27-26 at Kansas. In fact, their two Conference wins have been too close for comfort, beating ISU and KSU by a combined Four points. That means this number can only go up since WVU has won all of its home Games by at least 16 points. And while the Frogs won this matchup last year, their offense isn’t at the same level, while WVU’s defense is better allowing just 22.3 points per Game.

The Horned Frogs turned to sophomore quarterback Michael Collins the last couple Games and he hasn’t provided anything new, completing 54.6% of his passes, albeit with almost two yards more per attempt than Shawn Robinson. The running Game still lacks explosiveness behind Darius Anderson, who hasn’t rushed for more than 50 yards in five of the last six Games. The Mountaineers may not have an elite defense, but they’ve already held teams like K State and Baylor to 14 points or less at home and that could be the case for TCU.

On the other end, TCU’s defense is its strong suit, but again, West Virginia is a different level of offense that has scored at least 35 points in all but one Game. The Frogs have had some nice Games, but also gave up 52 points to Oklahoma and WVU’s offense isn’t that much worse.

Will Grier is a future NFL quarterback completing 69.7% of his passes for 10.03 yards per attempt and 28 touchdowns. OUtside of the weird Iowa State Game when he only attempted 15 passes, he’s been dominant and is coming off one of his more impressive performances, throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns with no picks against Texas on the road. The ground Game usually gets the job done for WVU and that’s TCU’s weakest spot on defense, so Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway should have plenty of chances to rack up yards. The only way for TCU to have a shot at holding this offense under 30 points is if it can win the line of scrimmage and so far only Iowa State has been able to do that.

The Horned Frogs haven’t covered in their last eight Conference Games and are just 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight overall, but 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The under has hit in the last Four meetings between these schools and West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in the last five.

Additional ATS Trends

TCU

TCU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Conference Games.

TCU is 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

TCU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road Games.

TCU is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Games as an underdog.

TCU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games as an underdog of 10.5+

TCU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Games overall.

TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

TCU is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 Games as a road underdog.

WVA

WVA is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Games as a favorite.

WVA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

WVA is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

WVA is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Games overall.

WVA is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Games as a home favorite.

WVA is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Games on turf.

Our Pick – West Virginia -11.5