To be clear, this isn’t the quality of Bowl game anyone expects to be watching in this time slot on New Years Eve. Last year we got Utah vs. Texas with 19 wins between them. This year, we get a 3 win team in Arkansas.

Mindset Is Crucial

It’s something we’ve never seen before. What is the mindset of a college football team that one 3 games and has a chance to play in a bowl game? Do they relish the role of spoiler? Would they rather not be here?

How about the 6-4 TCU Horned Frogs? Are they excited to be playing a 3 win team in a bowl game? Boel games are supposed to be rewards for a job well done. They give teams the chance to put a cherry on top of a good season against another good, deserving team.

We’ll make this short and sweet…..

Arkansas could not compete against the best teams they faced. Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida and Alabama all manhandled them. They also have losses to LSU and Missouri.

TCU owns quality wins over Oklahoma State and Texas and almost knocked off a very good Iowa State team. They are far more deserving of this game than the Hogs.

Our Pick

Sure, we can talk about the schedule strength of Arkansas, but really, what significance does playing a tough schedule hold when you can’t compete against that schedule?

Our model doesn’t help us much here. Using both full season data and data from the last 7 games our model predicts a 5 point TCU win. Right about on the number.

But winning breeds winning. TCU has won this year, beating some solid teams. Arkansas has not. We think TCU notches one more win here providing they are focused and come to play.

TCU -4

When the Liberty Bowl initially announced who would be playing in this game, it was Tennessee who was slated to be West Virginia’s opponent. But the Vols had to bail due to COVID issues.

Army – The Team No One Wanted

Army was scheduled to play in the Independence Bowl against a yet to be determined opponent from the lame PAC-12. But that Bowl game was cancelled. Army, at 9-2, thought for sure they’d get invited to another Bowl on selection Sunday, but it wasn’t to be.

Instead, Army sat back and watched as teams with losing records were invited to other Bowl games and when the smoke cleared, no Bowl for Army.

There was an outcry on social media and, well, the rest is history. Army steps in for Tennessee.

If you’re looking for a motivational angle for the Black Knights, there it is. Army was the team no one wanted. The team no one thought worthy of a Bowl invite. You can be sure Army head coach Jeff Monken will remind his players of that right up until kickoff.

On Paper It Looks Low Scoring

On paper this looks like a good, low scoring affair. Our model has West Virginia winning by 3 to 5 points with no more than 31 points being scored in the game. But were not so sure of that.

The difference in schedule strength in this one is glaring. You can’t begin to compare the two. The West Virginia Dance card included teams like Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma State.

Playing a weak schedule isn’t reason enough to doubt a team. If a team obliterates a weak schedule, well, maybe they are that good. But that didn’t happen here. In fact, Army’s two losses came against the two best teams they played, Cincinnati and Tulane. They lost to one by 14 and the other by 26.

The only other teams Army played with a pulse were Georgia State and Air Force. Those games were decided by 1 and 3 points.

Our Pick

Rather than offer a side selection in this one we’re going look at the total. Now, on paper, this is an under all the way. West Virginia didn’t exactly light up scoreboards on the road this year. Army runs the option. Defenses on both teams are stout.

But the posted total is very low. A few days before the game I see 41.5’s and even a 41 on the board.

Consider this. Army, in it’s last 3 Bowl games has scored 70, 42 and 38 points. That’s just Army, not their opponents. Army has appeared in 8 Bowl games. (yes, only 8). 6 of those 8 games went flying over 41 points. That 70 points game came against Houston in 2018 in a 70-14 win.

Often times, Bowl games become highly entertaining score fests. Even between teams you’d least expect that type of a game from. Teams try new things. They open things up as the pressure of the regular season isn’t there.

Army/West Virginia OVER 41

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Every year in college football, we fall in love with a team or two. These are teams that are usually undervalued by the public, initially at least and teams that we see potential in early on. For us, in 2020, San Jose State was one such team.

Little Was Expected from Spartans

Early on, we saw a team with a solid defense that could run the ball. The Spartans were a team that wasn’t expected to do much in 2020, in off of a 5-7 2019 season, going just 2-6 in conference play.

What a difference a year can make. We used San Jose State as a Key Release a couple of times this year and tried to use them a couple of other times, but COVID got in the way.

The Spartans were not only undefeated straight up this year, they were also undefeated against the spread, going 6-0-1 against the number, winning all of their games by 10 points or more.

Great Year for Ball State Too!

Ball State had a fantastic season of their own. After dropping their first game in early November to Miami Ohio, they rattled of 6 straight wins and captured the MAC title with a 38-28 win over undefeated Buffalo.

Ball State’s season was unimpressive until that Buffalo win. Sure, they won games, but barely. They lost to Miami Ohio and barely got by Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. Those are bad teams in an incredibly weak MAC.

But the Buffalo win was impressive. Buffalo dominated teams in the MAC this year and yet Ball State came away with the title. Can they do it again?

San Jose owns some nice wins. They beat Air Force, San Diego State, Nevada and Boise State. It’s certainly a more impressive resume than that of the Cardinals and again, all wins were by 10 points or more.

Is -10 Too High?

As much as we love this San Jose team, as this line inches towards -10, we may have to back away. Buffalo was similar to the Spartans. They ran the ball incredibly well and were stingy defensively. But they came up short against Ball State.

The Cardinals, by all accounts, are pumped to be here and won’t lack confidence or motivation.

Our model suggests the Spartans pull out a 30-22 win. Which would mean, no cover.

Our gut tells us San Jose is the better team with the higher quality wins and has all the tools needed to net themselves yet another win by 10+ points or more.

But that Ball State win over a dominant Buffalo team is standing there staring us in the face, suggesting the Cardinals are an extremely live dog.

Our Pick

For a selection on this game, we’ll instead look to the total. If San Jose State controls this game with their running game, which they figure to do, they’ll control the pace and the points on the scoreboard.

All of the Spartans games this year saw totals in the 50’s or less. So, we’ll make a slight recommendation on the under in this game, thinking that the running game and the defense figure prominently.

San Jose State/Ball State UNDER 64

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I understand this is 2020. I understand this is a year unlike any other in college football. But do we really need to see a 3 win team in a Bowl game?

I suppose the draw here is that we have an SEC team who has done battle with the likes Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Texas A&M with only Bama managing to blow them out, going up against an unproven AAC team. Could make for a good game.

No Doubt Miss State is Live Dog, But…..

You wouldn’t be wrong to think that a team that stays withing 14 of Texas A&M and within 7 of Georgia could be a live dog against Tulsa. Certainly Miss State will have a much easier time moving the ball against Tulsa than those monsters in the SEC.

Motivation will likely play a role here. How motivated do you figure Miss State will be to head to Texas to take on Tulsa? Heck, a win won’t even allow them to finish with a winning record!

Tulsa, on the other hand, has a chance to go 7-2 to and cap off a successful 2020 season, COVID and all, by knocking off an SEC team.

Model Sorts It Out

One of the things our model attempts to do, is make sense of the different schedule strengths at work in college football. Bowl games really put the model to the test, especially in situations like this. The SEC and AAC are like night and day. Apples and Oranges.

Here’s what our model comes up with……

Using full season data – Tulsa 22 Miss State 18

Using last 7 games only – Tulsa 24 Miss State 21

Using last 4 games only – Tulsa 22 Miss State 22

So, a close game that falls just under the current posted total of 47 with Tulsa covering 2 of the 3 predictions by a nose.

Certainly nothing we can sink our teeth into in terms of a major edge, however, what the model does suggest is that this game is in no way a mismatch and Tulsa certainly could grab win number 7.

I think we need to look no further than the AAC Championship and Tulsa’s 3 point loss to a very good Cincinnati team in order to have confidence in this Tulsa team.

What likely puts Tulsa over the top here is the motivational factors in their favor. Never underestimate motivation in college football. These are just kids. A win over an SEC team to finish a 7-2 season will do the trick.

Tulsa -2.5

The Cotton Bowl isn’t where Florida and Oklahoma wanted to be, but it’s not like motivation should be lacking between these teams. Florida has more losses but was an early -3 point favorite with an over/under of 71.5 for the game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

The Gators are probably only favored in this game because they come from the SEC. While quarterback Kyle Trask has been in the Heisman hunt, they haven’t been overly good as a team with their lone victory against a team with a winning record being the early 44-28 result against Georgia.

Florida Defense Lacking

They have three losses because their defense simply hasn’t been good enough against any relevant team and that’s the main issue in this matchup.

Florida is allowing more than 250 passing yards and close to 30 points per game. Those numbers aren’t bad, but a lot of that is because of a weak schedule, as they couldn’t stop LSU from scoring and Mac Jones threw for 418 yards against them.

Behind Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma has one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the country and will surely put up more points on Florida.

Freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler has steadily improved throughout the season en route to 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 9.5 yards per pass and a 68% completion rate.

His turnovers have reduced late in the season and that’s led to seven-straight wins. The hardest part for defenses is that he spreads the ball around to everyone, as top receivers Marvin Mims and Theo Wease are at just 36 receptions each.

In addition to a mediocre pass defense, Florida is also mediocre against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry. Oklahoma isn’t an elite rushing team, but top running back Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and should keep the offense balanced in this game.

Sooners Have a Defense!

The main advantage between these teams is that Oklahoma’s defense is pretty good despite starting the season slow. The Sooners are allowing just over 20 points per game and picked off Brock Purdy three times in the Big 12 title game.

Florida has been able to score on everyone, but because they can’t run the ball, they haven’t been able to churn the clock as much as they’d like.

Either way, Trask has been great with 43 touchdowns and five picks on 10.1 yards per pass and a 69.7% completion rate. Even without tight end Kyle Pitts, he should rack up numbers with receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes, as well as backup tight ends Kemore Gamble and Keon Zipperer, who have already filled in for Pitts this season.

Gators Can’t Run

The problem is that the Gators can’t run the ball, averaging 4.0 yards per carry as a team. They couldn’t do anything against Alabama, rushing for 54 yards, and the same could happen against Oklahoma, who are allowing 3.1 yards per carry for the season.

The Gators are favored, but the Sooners may have the better overall team. If you bet on the favorite, you’re betting on Trask to outperform Rattler and then some. For the Sooners, their defense could make some stops, while they should have no problem scoring behind Rattler and the talent around him.

Bottom Line

This game should be a blast. Two teams on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go, but also two teams that are likely better than at least two of the teams in the playoffs.

We’re used to seeing the Oklahoma Sooners with a potent offense. We’re NOT used to seeing the Sooners with a good defense. That’s the case here, and that could be the difference. A key stop here or there that in years past we may not have seen, could put the Sooners over the top.

Here are the scores from our model, using 3 sets of time frame parameters.

Full game data – Oklahoma 36 Florida 34

Last 7 games only – Oklahoma 40 Florida 34

Last 4 games only  – Oklahoma 36 Florida 24

It’s an across the board sweep for Oklahoma with the model and that’s the way we’re going to play this one.

Oklahoma +3

***Note – Since this was written Florida has gone from a -3 point favorite to a +3 dog. Florida will be without several key offensive starters. Initially we liked the Sooners +3. We still like the Sooners at -3.

Ironically, whichever team wins, they still wouldn’t have enough wins to qualify for a bowl game in a normal college football season. Ah yes, normal. But hey, the winner will in fact get to say they had a winning record in 2020, which is something to play for.

While both teams in this match-up have mediocre .500 records, one team has looked far more mediocre than the other.

Badgers Mediocre 2020

Wisconsin started their year in late October with two blowout wins, 45-7 over Illinois and 49-11 over Michigan. People certainly took notice. Of course, at the time, no one knew how bad Michigan would be in 2020.

The Badgers then proceeded to drop 3 straight to Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa before ending the season with a win over mediocre Minnesota and needing OT to do it.

Wake Forest’s 4-4 certainly looked better than the Badgers 3-3. The Demon Deacons dropped a 3 point decision to then #23 NC State back in September. They also knocked off decent Virginia and Virginia Tech teams.

Wake Forest finished the year with two losses. In one of those losses, they led #13 North Carolina 45-31 after 3 quarters. They gave up 28 points in the 4th and lost 59-53.

Of course, it’s not a good thing that they gave up 28 4th quarter points. But at the same time, that’s a heck of a North Carolina team that they had on the ropes.

The Model Flip Flops

Our model flip flops on this game. If we use all 8 games for Wake Forest and all 6 games for Wisconsin, the model says Wisconsin wins it by a score of 26-19. A 7 point win, right on the current number.

If we use only the last 4 games for each team, the model says Wake Forest wins it by a score of 22-18.

We disagree with our model here in the type of game this figures to be. The scores reflected indicate a conservative game played close to the vest. We think it will be the opposite.

Wake Forest’s defense in their 4 road games leaves a lot to be desired. They gave up an average of 41 points per game and their road games averaged 79 total points.

The feeling here is that plenty of points will be scored in this one making the over very attractive. We also feel Wake Forest has proven more in this short season than the Badgers. We expect this one to come down to the 4th quarter making Wake Forest a very live dog in this spot.

In order of preference, two plays…….

Wake Forest/Wisconsin OVER 51.5

Wake Forest +10 (ORIGINALLY POSTED AT +7)

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Texas will be missing several key starters due to their decision to opt out. On offense, left tackle Samuel Cosmi and wide receiver Brennan Eagles have opted out and center Derek Kerstetter is out due to injury. Texas will start two freshman on the offensive line.

On the defensive side, safeties Caden Sterns and Chris Brown are out as are defensive lineman Ta’Quon Graham and linebacker Joseph Ossai.

Buffs Played Just 5 Games

Make no mistake, handicapping a bowl game where one team played 9 games and the other just 5, is unprecedented, and difficult.

Will having played only 5 games help or hurt the Buffs? College football seasons are like mini lives. They take on a life of their own. There are ups and downs. Teams gel and come together.

On the plus side for Colorado, college football seasons take their toll physically. Having played just 6 games, they should have plenty in the tank.

Model Says Texas by 18

Using all available data for both teams, our model has Texas winning by 18 with a score  of 42-24. Using data only from each teams last 4 games, the model still likes Texas, this time by a score of 33-13.

But there are concerns if you like Texas. 6 of the Longhorns 9 games were decided by one score. They were only able to dominate and extend a margin against UTEP and Kansas State.

Texas was 3-1 in road games this year. However, they gave up an average of 44 points in those games and had a horrendous defensive yards per point number of 10.9. SO, the good news is they won. The bad news is, it wasn’t easy and they gave up buckets of points.

Our Pick

Nothing strong here. We just don’t feel as though we have enough to work with with this Colorado team. So, we’re forced to make some assumptions. One assumption we’ll make is that the Utah loss would have been a sign of things to come for the Buffs.

Utah finished 3-2 and was beaten decisively by a mediocre USC team. Yet the Utes managed to beat Colorado by 17. We think Texas presents much more of a challenge here for Colorado.

Look for Sam Ehlinger to put the cherry on top of a fantastic collegiate career as the Longhorns do something they’ve only done a couple of times this year. Extend a margin.

Texas -9

Of note, Miami will be without two starting defensive ends. Standout Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche have both opted out.

Miami Rediscovered Offense

The Hurricanes are in off of a successful 8-2 season due in large part to rediscovering their offense thanks to QB D’Eriq King. King provided the spark needed to what was a struggling offense. That combined with an already stingy defense made for 8 solid wins.

Their two losses are cause for concern though. Not just because they lost, but because they were blown out. If you want to excuse them for getting blown out by Clemson, well, ok. But their final game of the season was a 62-26 loss to North Carolina.

Oklahoma State had a similar season. They went 7-3 overall and at one point were in contention for the Big 12 title. They too, had an embarrassing blowout loss which came at the hands of Oklahoma. Their other two losses were an OT loss to Texas and a TD loss to TCU.

And the Model Says…

Here’s the way our model sees this game:

Oklahoma State            -1.5          28   NEUTRAL 
Miami                     59.5          26 using full season data
  
Oklahoma State            -1.5          39   NEUTRAL 
Miami                     59.5          30 using last 4 games data
  
Oklahoma State            -1.5          31   NEUTRAL 
Miami                     59.5          29 using last 7 games data

The most important model runs are the ones that use full season data as well as the last 7 games. In both instances, there’s plenty of data to work with. As you can see, BOTH of those model runs have Oklahoma State winning by 2. Right on the posted line. Thanks for nothing model!

At times, you can look at the model run using only the last 4 games as an indication of current form. In this case, that blow out loss to North Carolina factors in too heavily and skews the numbers.

Our Pick

Oklahoma State may have a defensive edge in this game. They are a little better against the run giving up 4.1 yards per rush attempt to Miami’s 4.8 and the loss of the defensive ends is a big negative.

Without anything to sink our teeth into statistically it comes down to our perception of the seasons these two had.

We’re more impressed with Oklahoma States wins than Miami’s. They proved they can win a grind it out type game against good defensive teams in wins over West Virginia and a very good Iowa State team and they proved they could go toe to toe with an offensive powerhouse like Texas, losing in OT.

Oklahoma State -2 (wouldn’t be surprised to see pk by kick off)

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There are 3 bowl games on the day after Christmas, but this is the one that stands out due to the season each team had.

Coastal Carolina Undefeated

Coastal Carolina went undefeated and participated in what many feel was the college football game of the year when they knocked off BYU in a game that wasn’t even scheduled until Thursday of that week.

That game was their signature win of course, in what was otherwise a fairly weak schedule. It should also be noted that they trailed a mediocre Troy team with a minute to go in their final game of the season, needing a late score to win and stay undefeated. They also gave up 400+ yards to Troy. A letdown game, perhaps, but still worth noting.

Liberty’s Season Equally Impressive

Liberty had a fantastic year as well. They knocked off Virginia Tech and in their only loss of the season, dropped a one point 15-14 decision to North Carolina State.

The North Carolina State game can be used as an argument in favor of Liberty in this game, when you take into account what NC State did this year. They beat Wake Forest, Virginia and Pitt and lost by 3 to Miami. So can Liberty compete here against Coastal? Of course.

Here is what our model has to say about this game. The 1st score uses full season data. The 2nd score uses only data from the last 4 games and the final score uses the last 7 games.

Liberty                   59.5          20   NEUTRAL 
Coastal Carolina          -7.0          33
  
Liberty                   59.5          17   NEUTRAL 
Coastal Carolina          -7.0          24
  
Liberty                   59.5          17   NEUTRAL 
Coastal Carolina          -7.0          32

We seem to get into trouble when we go against our model. As you can see, the model has a clean sweep across the board of Coastal Carolina winning by 7 or more regardless of the time frame parameters used.

Our Pick

Going with what you *think* as opposed to what the numbers suggest, is not something we’d necessarily advise. However, that is what we are going to do in this spot.

The feeling here is that what Liberty was able to do against NC State and Virginia Tech is more than enough to suggest that they can not only compete here, but can also win.

With that in mind, we’ll buck our own model and take +7.5 with Liberty and we’ll also lean towards the UNDER 59.5.

Liberty +7.5

Lean UNDER 59.5

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Buffalo cruised through its first five MAC games and then ran into what was seemingly a buzzsaw defense of Ball State in the title game. Despite averaging 46.8 points and more than 300 rushing yards per game, the Bulls were held to less than 30 points in a 38-28 loss.

COVID Hurt Marshall Down the Stretch

Marshall doesn’t have as explosive of an offense, but it won each of its first seven games by at least 10 points and then COVID-19 issues struck. The Thundering Herd didn’t score against a Rice team with a losing record and then had similar issues against UAB in the C-USA Championship Game.

The hope is that they’ll be a little closer to full strength after getting more than a week between the bowl and the loss to UAB.

The difference between these teams is that Marshall plays a bit more defense, allowing a nation-best 12.6 points and 277.7 yards per game. The offenses aren’t the best in C-USA, but they didn’t allow anyone to do anything until they had numerous players out because of COVID.

Maybe their best performance was the 17-7 win against an App. State team who scored more than 30 points per game and finished near the top of the Sun Belt standings. The question is if that defense can continue against Buffalo.

Bulls Can Run!

The Bulls have outlandish numbers even through only six games. Jarrett Patterson ran for 1,072 yards and 19 touchdowns on 7.6 yards per carry while Kevin Marks added 603 yards and six touchdowns on 7.8 yards per carry.

Because of that, quarterback Kyle Vantrease didn’t have much to do, averaging 9.3 yards per pass for seven touchdowns and two interceptions. But again, as seen in the loss to a mediocre Ball State defense, if you contain Patterson, the offense loses its potency.

Vantrease threw for 365 yards in the loss, but Patterson had just 47 yards on 2.6 yards per carry. Buffalo will still score, but when they’re not averaging more than seven yards per carry, the offense is no longer elite and that’s where Marshall comes in, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry.

If its offense doesn’t work, Buffalo’s defense will need to step up, which isn’t a certainty despite what the numbers say. They’re allowing a solid 23.8 points per game but just over 161 rushing yards per contest. They also gave up at least 30 points in three of six games, meaning that average is a bit skewed against a couple bad MAC teams.

Marshall Balanced When Healthy

When healthy, Marshall had a balanced offense that scored against the majority of opponents. Similar to Buffalo, they focused on the ground game with running back Brenden Knox averaging 4.8 yards per carry for 887 yards and nine touchdowns.

Quarterback Grant Wells was fine, but he also threw five interceptions in the loss to Rice and averaged 7.9 yards per pass for the season. If Marshall gets behind early, it may have to focus on Wells and that may not work. 

Both teams want to run the ball and control the clock and then that will open up passing lanes. If either team gets out to a two-score lead, it will have a massive edge and that lead may not go away.

Buffalo has the high-flying offense, but Marshall probably has the best defense it will have faced this season. The Herd are also a more well-rounded team which is usually easier to bet on for bowl games, assuming the COVID issues are over.

Our Pick

We certainly didn’t like the way Marshall’s last two games went. Buffalo also ran into an obstacle in their final game.

We’ll have to assume both teams show up and play their “A” game. If that happens, we like our chances with a balanced Marshall offense and stout defense. Considering the running games of both teams figure to play a role, we also think this game may squeak under the total.

Marshall +5.5 and UNDER 54

(Look for +6!)