Alabama vs Oklahoma CFP First Round Preview and Picks
Friday, December 19, 2025 | 8:00 PM EST | ABC | Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Line: Alabama -1 | Total: 40.5 (MyBookie)
The 2025 College Football Playoffs kick off Friday night in Norman as Alabama travels to face Oklahoma in the first of three playoff games this weekend. Both teams finished the regular season with identical 10-2 records, though the Crimson Tide added a third loss in the SEC Championship Game. That defeat to Georgia—a 28-7 drubbing where Alabama never looked competitive—has sparked plenty of debate about whether this team deserves to be here at all.
A Rematch Worth Watching
These teams are already familiar with each other. Back in October, Oklahoma went into Tuscaloosa and pulled off a 23-21 upset as a significant underdog. What makes that result even more interesting is how it happened. Alabama dominated the stat sheet with over 400 total yards, including 326 through the air, while holding the Sooners to just 212 yards (only 74 on the ground). Oklahoma converted a mere 3 of 13 third-down attempts yet still walked out with the win. Three Alabama turnovers and a blocked field goal before halftime proved to be the difference.
The conventional wisdom says it’s tough to beat the same team twice in one season, and the Tide will certainly be motivated to even the score. Add in the embarrassment of the SEC title game loss and Alabama should have no shortage of motivation.
The Numbers Tell a Different Story
If we set aside the head-to-head result and simply look at full-season statistics, Oklahoma actually grades out better in several key areas.
The Sooners boast a yards per rushing attempt differential of +1.4, ranking 15th nationally. Alabama’s number sits at -0.8, which places them 104th in the country. That’s a massive gap and frankly a surprising one for a program that typically controls the line of scrimmage.
Alabama makes up some ground through the passing game. The overall yards per play differential still favors Oklahoma, but the margin is closer. The Sooners rank 27th at +0.9 while the Tide come in at 46th with +0.7.
On the defensive side, Oklahoma ranks 8th nationally in defensive yards per point allowed at 19.1, compared to Alabama’s 31st-ranked mark of 16.2. The Sooners simply make opponents work harder for points.
Recent Form Matters
Oklahoma enters this game on a roll, having won four straight and five of their last six since a loss to rival Texas. That stretch includes the road win over Alabama and a notable triumph against Tennessee. The Sooners have found ways to grind out wins even when not at their best offensively.
Alabama, on the other hand, has been shaky down the stretch. After the loss to Oklahoma, they needed a fortunate bounce to escape Auburn after being outgained 411-280 and converting just 4 of 17 third downs. The SEC Championship was worse—209 total yards against Georgia with multiple key players dealing with injuries.
There are concerns about Oklahoma’s offensive ceiling, but the same questions apply to Alabama right now. Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback, followed up his 326-yard performance against Oklahoma with a season-low 48.7% completion rate in the Georgia game. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s John Mateer has dealt with an injury to his throwing hand this season that required surgery, limiting his effectiveness through the air. He has been turnover-prone with 10 interceptions against 12 passing touchdowns, but he can also create with his legs and has rushed for seven scores.
Totals Trends Favor the Under
Both defenses have a proven track record of keeping scores down. Alabama’s games against ranked opponents have gone UNDER six times in six tries this season, largely due to their elite secondary. Oklahoma has been similarly stingy at home, with the UNDER hitting in six of seven games played in Norman.
When two teams with top-tier defensive specializations meet in a win-or-go-home situation, expect conservative play-calling and plenty of tension. Our model projects a final score of 17-14 in favor of Oklahoma.
Home Field Advantage
It’s also worth noting that home teams dominated in last year’s playoff first round, with all four hosts winning by double digits. Three of those were cold-weather games, so the conditions were a factor. Still, playing at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in front of a frenzied home crowd could provide the Sooners with an edge that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet.
Oklahoma averages fewer than one takeaway per home game this season, so counting on them to force turnovers again may be wishful thinking. But they also won’t need to if their defense continues performing at its current level.
The Pick
Alabama has the talent to take this game. Nobody doubts that. But the Tide have been inconsistent, they’re dealing with questions about health and motivation, and they’re walking into a hostile environment against a team that already beat them once.
Oklahoma showed they can win without dominating statistically. They’ve been the more consistent team over the final month of the season, and they have the defensive profile to keep this close.
Pick: Oklahoma +1
Pick: Under 40.5
Two elite defenses, conservative playoff football, and weather that won’t favor shootouts. Take the Sooners and the Under.