Arizona State at Iowa State: First Half Focus in Big 12 Matchup

Saturday, November 1, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
TV: TNT | Line: Iowa State -7 | Total: 49 | MyBookie

Game Overview

Two Big 12 teams searching for momentum meet Saturday afternoon when the Arizona State Sun Devils (5-3) travel to face the Iowa State Cyclones (5-3) at Jack Trice Stadium. What was last year’s Big 12 Championship game has become a matchup between two teams desperately trying to get a win.

The Cyclones enter as 7-point home favorites with the total set at 49 points. Both teams are coming off disappointing stretches, with Iowa State dropping three straight games to Cincinnati (38-30), Colorado (24-17), and BYU (41-27). Arizona State has lost two of their last three, including a 24-16 defeat to Houston where they didn’t score until the fourth quarter.

Key Storyline: Arizona State Without Sam Leavitt

The biggest development for this game is that Arizona State will be without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who suffered an injury against Houston. Leavitt has been instrumental to the Sun Devils’ success this season, throwing for 1,628 yards and 10 touchdowns. His absence significantly impacts Arizona State’s offensive outlook.

Stepping in will be senior Jeff Sims, who brings experience from his time as a starter at Georgia Tech. Sims has thrown for over 5,000 yards in his college career, but the transition to a new quarterback on the road in conference play presents obvious challenges.

First Half Edge for Iowa State

When analyzing this matchup by halves, the data points to a stronger edge for Iowa State in the first half compared to the full game. Our projections show Iowa State winning the first half by 8 points, with the second half playing out more evenly. Notably, these projections were made with Leavitt in the lineup, making the first half advantage even more pronounced now.

Iowa State -3.5 First Half represents strong value given these circumstances.

Statistical Breakdown

Iowa State Offense vs Arizona State Defense

The Cyclones average 29.0 points per game (67th nationally) against a Sun Devils defense allowing 27.7 points per game (88th). Iowa State’s balanced attack produces 417.1 total yards per game, with quarterback Rocco Becht managing the offense despite recent struggles (10 TDs, 6 INTs). Running back Abu Sama III leads the ground game with 544 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Arizona State’s defense has been vulnerable, particularly through the air where they allow 214.8 yards per game with a 63.8% completion rate against. This could be problematic against Becht and receivers Brett Eskildsen and Benjamin Brahmer, who have combined for 726 receiving yards.

Arizona State Offense vs Iowa State Defense

Without Leavitt, Arizona State’s offense faces an uphill battle. The Sun Devils average just 26.0 points per game (79th nationally) with their starter, and that number figures to drop with Sims under center. Running back Raleek Brown (706 yards, 3 TDs) and receiver Jordyn Tyson (57 receptions, 628 yards) will need to step up considerably.

Iowa State’s defense ranks 45th nationally, allowing 21.8 points per game. They’ve been particularly stout against the run, yielding just 136.8 rushing yards per game. This could force Sims into obvious passing situations early and often.

Trends and Patterns

Several trends support the first half play on Iowa State:

• Iowa State has won the first half in four of their last five home games against conference opponents
• The Cyclones have won 11 of their last 12 games against non-ranked teams at Jack Trice Stadium
• Arizona State has scored 16 or fewer points in two of their last three games
• Iowa State’s recent losses have featured slow starts followed by attempted comebacks

The home team has covered in four of Iowa State’s last five games, while Arizona State has failed to cover in three of their last four overall.

Historical Context

These teams met last year, where Arizona State dominated as 1.5-point favorites, winning 45-19. However, that game featured a healthy Leavitt leading the Sun Devils’ offense. The dynamics have shifted considerably with both teams struggling and Arizona State missing their quarterback.

The Pick: Iowa State -3.5 First Half

The combination of factors makes Iowa State’s first half spread attractive:

1. Quarterback Advantage: Becht, despite recent struggles, has continuity in the system versus Sims making his first start for Arizona State
2. Home Field: Iowa State’s 3-1 home record demonstrates their comfort at Jack Trice Stadium
3. Defensive Edge: Iowa State’s defense should control the line of scrimmage early against a depleted Arizona State offense
4. Desperation Factor: After three straight losses, expect Iowa State to come out aggressive early

Both teams need this win to salvage their seasons, but Iowa State has the clearer path to establishing control early. The Cyclones’ ability to jump out to leads at home, combined with Arizona State’s offensive uncertainty, creates a recipe for first half dominance.

Look for Iowa State to establish their running game early while forcing Sims into difficult third-down situations. The Cyclones should build a comfortable first half lead before the game tightens up in the second half as adjustments are made.

Best Bet: Iowa State -3.5 First Half