Arizona State at Mississippi State Betting Preview (Sept. 6, 2025)

The second week of the 2025 college football season brings a cross‑conference showdown in Starkville as No. 11 Arizona State visits Mississippi State. BetOnline has installed the Sun Devils as a 7‑point favorite with a total of 59, and our projection—which blends data from last season and the early returns from Week 1—has Arizona State winning 42‑21.

Why Arizona State Is Favored

Arizona State’s rapid rise under coach Kenny Dillingham turned last year’s underdog into this season’s hunted. The Sun Devils bring back 17 starters—seven on offense and ten on defense, giving them one of the nation’s highest rates of returning production. Quarterback Sam Leavitt became a preseason Big‑12 offensive player‑of‑the‑year pick and enters Week 2 off a strong opener against Northern Arizona. In that 38‑19 win he threw two touchdown passes and rushed for two more, finishing with 257 passing yards, 73 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. His favorite target, Jordyn Tyson, caught 12 passes for 141 yards and two scores against NAU, and Tyson’s bond with Leavitt has only grown since last season after he posted 75 catches for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024.

The Sun Devils’ rushing attack remains potent even after Cam Skattebo’s departure to the NFL. Tailbacks Kyson Brown and Raleek Brown return along with Army transfer Kanye Udoh; Kyson Brown earned the starting role and Dillingham said he is “no longer just a fast guy…if the ball’s in his hands, I know he’s going to give everything he’s got.” With Brown and Leavitt both rushing for 73 yards in the opener, Arizona State averaged 9.7 yards per carry.

Defensively the Sun Devils might be even better. They return every starter along a front that led the Big 12 in run defense last season, and defensive tackle C.J. Fite believes the continuity “plays a big role” in improving the pass rush. Linebacker Jordan Crook led the team with seven tackles in Week 1, while defensive back Montana Warren recorded four tackles, two pass break‑ups and a quarterback hurry.

There are a few concerns. Arizona State committed 12 penalties for 93 yards in the opener, something Dillingham admitted must improve. “We can’t have 12 penalties for 93 yards that cost us an additional 170 yards…we gotta get that cleaned up,” he told reporters. Still, with an experienced roster and a dynamic quarterback‑receiver tandem, the Sun Devils look like a playoff contender again.

Mississippi State’s Outlook

Mississippi State opened the season with a 34‑17 road win over Southern Miss, but the victory exposed some growing pains. Quarterback Blake Shapen, who missed most of 2024 with a fractured shoulder, completed 26 of 33 passes for 270 yards with one touchdown and an interception. The Bulldogs rushed for 188 yards on 42 carries and three touchdowns, showing balance in new coach Jeff Lebby’s offense. Early in the game Shapen hit a 55‑yard touchdown to open the scoring, and Mississippi State used a big third quarter to build a 34‑10 lead before coasting.

However, Mississippi State is essentially a brand‑new team. Sports Illustrated noted that the Bulldogs roster contains 65 new players and that the depth chart had more “or’s” than a rowing team. The opener revealed issues with discipline: they committed 14 penalties, including multiple illegal formations and holds that erased touchdowns. Columnist Taylor Hodges observed that Mississippi State won’t beat Arizona State if those mistakes persist. There are positives—the running backs looked explosive and the defensive line “awesome”—but this is still a rebuilding program predicted to finish near the bottom of the SEC.

Match‑up and Betting Analysis

Last year these teams met in Tempe, where Arizona State controlled the game before winning 30‑23; Shapen threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while Leavitt ran for 68 yards and two scores, and Skattebo piled up 262 rushing yards. The 2025 rematch takes place at Davis Wade Stadium—one of the SEC’s toughest environments—but the fundamentals still favor the Sun Devils.

Arizona State returns most of its Big‑12‑championship core and owns one of the nation’s most experienced defenses. The Bulldogs, by contrast, are integrating a massive infusion of transfers and freshmen while learning a new scheme and trying to fix penalties. Even with home‑field advantage, Mississippi State’s margin for error is small against an offense that can score in bunches and a defense designed to stop the run.

Our model projects a 42‑21 Arizona State win, which is a 21‑point margin—significantly higher than the current spread of 7.

Given the experience edge, quarterback advantage and offensive firepower of the Sun Devils, the best play is laying the seven points with Arizona State. If Dillingham’s team reduces its penalties, they have the capability to win comfortably in Starkville and remain on track for another Big‑12 and playoff run.

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