Auburn at Arkansas: Desperation Bowl Preview – Saturday, October 25, 2025
The Line: Pick ’em | Total: 57 | Kickoff: Saturday, October 25, 2025
In one of the more unfortunate storylines of the 2025 college football season, two SEC programs capable of hanging with anyone in the nation find themselves fighting just to reach bowl eligibility. When Auburn travels to Fayetteville on Saturday, both the Tigers and Razorbacks will be playing with their postseason lives on the line—a reality that seems almost cruel given how competitive both teams have been.
Two Teams, One Painful Reality
The parallels between these programs are striking. Arkansas sits at 2-5 overall and 0-3 in SEC play, yet their resume tells a story of heartbreaking near-misses rather than inadequacy. The Razorbacks dropped a one-point decision to Memphis, fell to #17 Tennessee by just three points, lost to #8 Ole Miss by seven, and last week came up three points short against #3 Texas A&M. That’s four games decided by a touchdown or less, all against quality opponents.
Auburn’s path has been equally frustrating. After opening 3-0, the Tigers have dropped four consecutive conference games to fall to 3-4 (0-4 SEC). Those losses came against Missouri (in overtime), Georgia, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma—with three decided by seven points or fewer. No opponent ranked higher than 15th, yet here Auburn sits, winless in league play.
The mathematics are straightforward but daunting. Arkansas needs four wins in their final five games to reach six wins, but their remaining schedule features Auburn, Mississippi State, LSU, Texas, and Missouri. Auburn has a slightly clearer path—they need three wins from their last five, and with FCS Mercer on the slate, that means finding two more against Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Alabama.
Simply put: this game matters immensely for both programs.
The Efficiency Metrics Tell a Different Story
Here’s what makes this situation so frustrating for both fanbases—these teams are legitimately good at football. Auburn ranks 10th nationally in yards per rush attempt differential at +1.9, while Arkansas checks in at 22nd with a +1.4 mark. Those aren’t numbers from mediocre teams; those are statistics from programs that control the line of scrimmage.
Defensively, Auburn has been particularly stout despite the losses. The Tigers rank 18th in the nation in yards per point allowed at 17.7—a remarkable figure considering the gauntlet they’ve faced. When your defense forces opponents to work that hard for points and you’re still 0-4 in conference play, you’re likely on the wrong side of some close games. Which is exactly what’s happened.
Arkansas has shown similar efficiency, particularly in their ability to move the football on the ground. The Razorbacks’ rushing attack has been a consistent strength, even as close losses have piled up.
Recent History and Betting Trends
Last season, Arkansas traveled to Auburn and came away with a 24-14 road win. That result should provide some confidence for the Razorbacks, though both programs have turned over personnel and find themselves in vastly different circumstances than a year ago.
From a betting perspective, Auburn enters at 3-4 against the spread this season, while Arkansas sits at 4-3 ATS. The Razorbacks have been competitive enough in losses to keep things close for bettors, while Auburn’s string of one-score defeats has created value on the Tigers in certain spots.
The total of 57 reflects what oddsmakers expect to be a competitive, potentially high-scoring affair between two teams desperate for a win. Both offenses have shown the ability to move the ball, particularly on the ground, and both defenses have been vulnerable at times despite solid efficiency metrics.
The Pick: Auburn 27, Arkansas 24
This is an absolute toss-up game, reflected in the pick ’em line at MyBookie. However, we’re leaning toward Auburn to get a measure of revenge for last year’s home loss to the Razorbacks.
Several factors tip the scales slightly toward the Tigers. First, Auburn’s schedule difficulty—while resulting in losses—has prepared them for this moment. Playing Missouri, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks, with three of those games going down to the wire, has battle-tested this team. They know how to play in pressure situations, even if the results haven’t gone their way.
Second, Auburn’s path to bowl eligibility is marginally more achievable than Arkansas’s. The Tigers need this game badly, but they also have Mercer and potentially winnable games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt ahead. For Arkansas, needing four of five with their remaining schedule creates an all-or-nothing desperation that could work against them.
Third, the home loss last season should provide extra motivation for Auburn’s program. While revenge narratives can be overblown, in a game this evenly matched, small edges matter.
Finally, Auburn’s defensive efficiency suggests they’re due for positive regression. When you’re forcing teams to gain 17.7 yards per point and still losing games, the pendulum typically swings back. Against an Arkansas team that’s been in similar close contests, Auburn’s defense could be the difference in another one-score game.
Our model projects Auburn 27, Arkansas 24. We’re taking the Tigers in a game that could easily go either way, with the expectation that this becomes yet another one-score SEC battle that comes down to the final possession.
The Bottom Line
It’s a shame that one (or possibly both) of these teams won’t make a bowl game. Many college football fans would prefer watching Auburn or Arkansas in December over a 6-6 MAC or Sun Belt team, but that’s the reality of modern college football. When you play in the SEC, moral victories and close losses don’t count in the standings.
For now, both teams have Saturday’s game as their sole focus. It’s a crossroads contest that will keep one team’s bowl hopes alive while likely extinguishing the other’s. In a season full of what-ifs for both programs, this is a chance to turn potential into reality.
Pick: Auburn to win outright