BYU at Cincinnati: Road Favorites Face Desperate Bearcats
Saturday, November 22, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET | FOX
Line: BYU -2.5 | Total: 54.5 (MyBookie)
The Setup
The No. 11 BYU Cougars (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) travel to Nippert Stadium with everything on the line as they face a Cincinnati squad (7-3, 5-2 Big 12) that refuses to go away quietly. After bouncing back from their lone defeat with an emphatic 44-13 demolition of TCU, the Cougars control their own path to both the Big 12 title game and the College Football Playoff. But Cincinnati, coming off back-to-back losses including a disappointing 30-24 home setback against Arizona, remains mathematically alive in the conference race and will be honoring 22 seniors in what should be an emotionally charged atmosphere.
The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story
While BYU enters as the road favorite, the underlying metrics suggest this could be tighter than the spread indicates. Cincinnati actually holds edges in several key efficiency categories, posting a +1.5 yards per rush attempt differential compared to BYU’s +0.4, and a +1.1 yards per play differential versus the Cougars’ +0.8. These numbers alone point to potential value on the home underdog.
Both teams demonstrate balanced efficiency on both sides of the ball. BYU generates 13.1 yards per offensive point while allowing 17.8 yards per defensive point. Cincinnati’s numbers are remarkably similar at 13.4 offensive yards per point and 16.6 defensive yards per point allowed. This statistical parity suggests we could be in for a competitive contest.
Model Projections Point to BYU, But…
Our proprietary scoring models all project a BYU win, though the margin varies significantly based on timeframe parameters – anywhere from 4 to 11 points. The advanced analytics community seems more confident than the betting market, with SP+ giving BYU a 60% win probability and projecting a 29-25 final score. FPI is even more bullish at 67.5%, while BCFToys projects a 30.9-26.3 Cougar win.
The most interesting angle emerges from our first-half model, which actually projects Cincinnati winning the opening 20 minutes by 4 points. With the prevalent first-half line sitting at Cincinnati +0.5, there’s significant value here considering a tied score at halftime would cash the bet.
Key Matchup Considerations
BYU’s offense against Cincinnati’s defense represents the biggest mismatch on paper. The Bearcats rank 88th nationally defending the pass and 86th against the run, while allowing opponents to convert quality drives at an alarming rate (120th nationally). Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier bounced back impressively against TCU after struggling at Texas Tech, posting his best QBR of the season (93.2) while throwing for 296 yards and adding 59 on the ground.
The concern for BYU is their road performance this season. While dominant at home in LaVell Edwards Stadium, the Cougars have needed late-game heroics in several road contests – a three-point escape at Colorado, double-overtime at Arizona, and a comeback win at Iowa State before falling at Texas Tech. This represents their toughest road environment since that loss.
Cincinnati desperately needs to win the turnover battle to have a chance. The problem? They sit at an even turnover margin (67th nationally) while BYU ranks 12th at +8. The Bearcats also struggle with time of possession, ranking 136th nationally at just 24:39 per game compared to BYU’s 32:24 (15th nationally).
The First Half Angle
Consider Cincinnati’s recent first-half performances and BYU’s potential travel letdown spot. The Cougars are coming off an emotional home win where they dominated from start to finish. Now they must travel across the country to face a desperate Cincinnati team that led Arizona 14-10 at halftime just last week before fading in the final 30 minutes.
With BYU potentially looking ahead to clinching scenarios and Cincinnati playing in front of their home crowd on senior night, the Bearcats +0.5 in the first half offers tremendous value.
The Play
While our models suggest BYU ultimately pulls away for a win by 4-11 points, the path to get there could be rocky. Cincinnati has shown they can hang with quality opponents early before depth and talent disparities show up late. The smart money is taking Cincinnati +0.5 in the first half, then backing BYU -2.5 for the full game as the Cougars’ superior depth and playoff motivation carry them to a hard-fought road win.
Best Bets:
- First Half: Cincinnati +0.5
- Full Game: BYU -2.5
Look for BYU to face early resistance before pulling away late, potentially needing a fourth-quarter surge to cover the number. The Cougars have outscored opponents by 10.4 points per game in the fourth quarter this season (tied for 7th nationally), which could be the difference in both winning and covering on the road.