Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers: Saturday, November 15, 2025
Point Spread: Notre Dame -11.5
Total: 55
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
When: Saturday, November 15, 12:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
The Fighting Irish head to Pittsburgh for what shapes up as their final significant test before the College Football Playoff. With wins already secured against Texas A&M, Miami, and USC, Notre Dame finds themselves as double-digit road favorites against a Panthers team that has won five straight games.
The Playoff Picture
Notre Dame controls their destiny with three games remaining on their schedule. After this trip to Pittsburgh, they face Syracuse and Stanford – neither presenting the challenge that this Pitt team does. A win here essentially locks up a playoff spot for the Irish, making this their most important remaining regular season game.
The Panthers enter with a 7-2 record and have covered in seven of nine games this season. Their two losses came against West Virginia and Louisville, with the Mountaineers defeat particularly damaging to their resume. Since making a quarterback change to true freshman Mason Heintschel, Pitt has rattled off five consecutive wins, scoring at least 30 points in each game during that stretch.
Statistical Edge Points to Irish
Our full-season model projects Notre Dame by 12 points, while recent form (last seven games) suggests an even more comfortable 36-19 win for the Irish. The underlying metrics support this assessment decisively.
The key statistical advantages for Notre Dame:
- Yards per play differential: Notre Dame +2.6, Pitt +1.1
- Yards per rush attempt differential: Notre Dame +2.5, Pitt +0.9
- Defensive yards per point: Notre Dame 17.8, Pitt 14.2
These numbers tell the story of a Notre Dame team that controls both lines of scrimmage more effectively than their opponent.
Pitt’s Curious Approach
Head coach Pat Narduzzi raised eyebrows this week with his comments about the game’s importance. When asked if this was a must-win, Narduzzi responded: “Absolutely not. It is not an ACC game… I’d gladly get beat 103 or 110 to 10… They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that.”
While coaches often downplay individual games, this level of indifference toward a home game against a top-10 opponent hosting College GameDay is unusual.
Matchup Analysis
The Irish backfield duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price faces a Pitt run defense that ranks third nationally in yards allowed per game. However, Notre Dame’s rushing attack has been elite all season, with Love tied for the national lead in touchdowns. The Panthers haven’t faced a backfield combination of this caliber, and with linebacker Rasheem Biles questionable due to injury, containing both backs becomes even more challenging.
Heintschel has provided a spark for Pitt’s offense since taking over, averaging over 300 passing yards per game. However, his inexperience shows through five interceptions and four fumbles while being sacked 16 times. Against a Notre Dame defense that ranks third nationally in interceptions and 18th in sacks, those protection and ball security issues become magnified.
The Irish quarterback situation has stabilized with CJ Carr, who has thrown 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions while leading the nation with over 10 yards per attempt. After years of transfer portal quarterbacks, Notre Dame appears to have found their homegrown solution.
Special Teams Disparity
An overlooked factor could be the kicking game. Pitt freshman Trey Butkowski leads the nation in points scored and has connected on 19 of 21 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has cycled through three different kickers, with all three missing attempts in their recent win over Navy. Erik Schmidt gets the nod this week after missing both field goal attempts this season, each from inside 40 yards.
Historical Trends
Notre Dame dominates this series with a 52-21-1 all-time record and has won seven of the last eight meetings. The Irish have won four straight against current Pitt coach Narduzzi.
For Pittsburgh, the magic number remains 30 points. They’ve won 32 consecutive games when reaching that threshold but are just 5-20 in their last 25 games when falling short. Against this Notre Dame defense, reaching 30 points presents a significant challenge.
The Pick
While Pitt’s five-game winning streak and home field advantage with College GameDay on campus create an electric atmosphere, Notre Dame’s superior talent and playoff stakes should prevail. The Irish learned their lesson about focus after their close call with Boston College.
With this representing their toughest remaining test and Narduzzi’s puzzling comments about not prioritizing the game, expect Notre Dame to deliver their most complete performance of recent weeks. The statistical edges across the board, combined with superior playmakers at the skill positions, point toward a comfortable Irish win.
The Play: Notre Dame -11.5