Utah at Baylor: Big 12 Showdown with Playoff Implications
Saturday, November 15, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX | ESPN2
The 15th-ranked Utah Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) travel to Waco to face the Baylor Bears (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) in a critical Big 12 matchup. MyBookie has installed Utah as 8.5-point road favorites with a total of 61 points.
The Stakes
Utah enters this contest with massive motivation. A win here, combined with strong finishes against Kansas State and Kansas, keeps their College Football Playoff hopes alive. The Utes need to win out impressively while getting help elsewhere in the conference to reach the Big 12 title game. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Utah a 44.6% chance to win their remaining games—the highest probability of any Big 12 team.
The Utes demonstrated their dominance recently, demolishing Arizona State, Colorado, and Cincinnati by a combined 140-30 margin. Their only recent blemish came in a tight 24-21 setback against rival BYU, which significantly damaged their conference championship aspirations but didn’t eliminate them entirely.
Meanwhile, Baylor still fights for bowl eligibility, needing one more win with three games remaining. The Bears showed life last week with a convincing 30-3 dismantling of UCF at home, where they’ve posted a respectable 3-2 record this season.
Statistical Dominance
The numbers paint a clear picture of Utah’s superiority, particularly in key efficiency metrics that often determine game outcomes.
Defensive Yards Per Point
Utah’s defense ranks among the nation’s elite with a defensive yards per point metric of 20.9, placing them 3rd nationally. This means opposing offenses must work extremely hard for every score against the Utes. Conversely, Baylor’s defense sits at 12.5 yards per point, ranking a dismal 115th nationally—indicating they allow easy scoring opportunities.
Offensive Efficiency
Utah’s offense operates at 12.9 offensive yards per point, good for 33rd nationally. When matched against Baylor’s 115th-ranked defense, this creates a significant mismatch favoring the Utes’ ability to score efficiently.
Yards Per Play Differential
The Utes boast an impressive +1.6 yards per play differential, ranking 12th nationally. This demonstrates their ability to consistently outgain opponents on both sides of the ball. Baylor manages just a +0.4 differential, ranking 54th—respectable but nowhere near Utah’s level.
Ground Game Control
Utah’s rushing attack has been particularly dominant with a +1.6 yards per rush attempt differential, ranking 11th nationally. The Utes average 267.1 rushing yards per game, placing them 3rd in the nation. This ground dominance contrasts sharply with Baylor’s -0.7 yards per rush attempt differential, which ranks 99th nationally.
Season Performance
Utah’s offense has been explosive, averaging 39.6 points per game while their defense allows just 14.2 points—a differential that ranks among the nation’s best. The Utes have scored 356 total points this season while surrendering just 128, demonstrating elite performance on both sides of the ball.
The defense has been particularly stingy, allowing just 301.1 total yards per game (17th nationally) and limiting opponents to 156.8 passing yards per contest. They’ve surrendered only six passing touchdowns all season while generating consistent pressure in the backfield, allowing just 0.78 sacks per game (7th nationally).
Baylor’s numbers tell a different story. The Bears average 33.8 points per game—solid production—but surrender 29.3 points defensively (101st nationally). Their passing attack ranks 5th nationally with 312.7 yards per game, powered by quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s 2,780 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. However, their defense has struggled, particularly against the run, allowing 177.6 rushing yards per game.
Recent Form and Trends
Utah enters on a two-game winning streak following their dominant performances against Cincinnati (45-14) and Colorado (53-7 in a previous game). The Utes have covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests. They’ve also excelled as conference favorites, going 4-1 ATS in their last five Big 12 games.
Baylor has struggled against the number recently, posting just a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games. While they’ve shown the ability to compete at home with their 3-2 record at McLane Stadium, they’ve failed to consistently cover as home underdogs. The total has gone over in 13 of Baylor’s last 19 games, suggesting their games tend toward higher scoring affairs.
Model Projection
Our predictive model forecasts a comfortable Utah win by a score of 38-17, easily covering the 8.5-point spread. This projection aligns with the statistical advantages Utah holds in virtually every key metric.
The model accounts for Utah’s superior rushing attack against Baylor’s vulnerable run defense, the Utes’ elite defensive efficiency, and their motivation to impress the playoff committee. With Utah’s ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, they should dictate the pace and flow of this game.
Matchup Keys
Utah’s rushing attack figures to be the decisive factor. Averaging over 267 yards per game on the ground against a Baylor defense that struggles to stop the run creates an obvious path to success for the Utes. If Utah establishes the ground game early, it opens up play-action opportunities while keeping Baylor’s high-powered passing attack off the field.
Defensively, Utah’s ability to generate pressure without allowing sacks themselves gives them a significant advantage. Their third-down defense, converting at a 53.3% clip offensively while limiting opponents, should prove crucial in sustaining drives and getting Baylor’s offense off the field.
For Baylor to stay competitive, Robertson must have an exceptional performance through the air while avoiding the turnovers that have plagued the Bears at times this season. The Bears need to establish some semblance of a running game to keep Utah’s defense honest, though their -0.7 yards per rush attempt differential suggests this will be challenging.
The Bottom Line
This shapes up as an excellent spot for Utah. They’re the superior team across the board, particularly in the trenches where games are won. With playoff implications on the line, expect the Utes to not only win but potentially run up the score to impress the selection committee.
The combination of Utah’s elite defensive efficiency, dominant rushing attack, and significant motivation advantage makes them a strong play laying the points on the road. Baylor’s home field provides some resistance, but not enough to overcome the talent and statistical disparities.
The Pick: Utah -8.5
The Utes have the personnel, the metrics, and most importantly, the motivation to cover this number comfortably. Look for them to control this game from start to finish as they continue their push toward a potential playoff berth.