Washington State at James Madison: Dukes’ Dream Season Meets Reality Check
The story of James Madison football in 2025 is one that Hollywood would reject as too unrealistic. The Dukes won their eighth-straight game and ran their Sun Belt Conference record to 7-0, clinching the Sun Belt East Division and their first-ever berth into the Credit Union 1 Sun Belt Football Championship Game. At 9-1 overall, JMU finds themselves in the conversation for a College Football Playoff berth – something that would have been unthinkable when they were playing FCS ball just four years ago.
But now comes the challenge that exposes the uncomfortable truth about this remarkable season: the Dukes have built their gaudy record against one of the softest schedules in all of college football.
The Great James Madison Story
The rise of the Dukes under second-year coach Bob Chesney has been nothing short of spectacular. After losing Curt Cignetti to Indiana following the 2023 season – along with half the roster and coaching staff – most expected a rebuilding period. Instead, Chesney has the team positioned for their first Sun Belt Championship Game appearance and potentially even more.
The Dukes were picked to finish first place in the East division in the preseason coaches’ poll, and they’ve delivered on those expectations. Running back George Pettaway, offensive lineman Pat McMurtrie and defensive back Jacob Thomas were awarded to be in the preseason All-Sun Belt first team, providing the foundation for this impressive campaign.
The numbers tell an impressive story. JMU’s +2.3 yards per rush attempt differential ranks #4 in the nation, while their yards per play differential of +1.9 ranks 7th nationally. This is undeniably a good football team.
The Schedule Problem
Here’s where reality crashes the party. Of the 136 FBS teams, James Madison’s strength of schedule ranks 116th. Their only legitimate test against Power Four competition came against Louisville earlier this season – a game that was competitive for three quarters before the Cardinals pulled away for a 28-14 win in the fourth quarter.
When you look at what teams with tougher schedules have accomplished against similar competition, the contrast becomes stark. Washington State, sitting at 5-5, has played a schedule that’s roughly 10 points more difficult than JMU’s according to most power ratings.
Washington State: The Ultimate Test Case
The Cougars provide the perfect measuring stick for evaluating James Madison’s true quality. Washington State lost to #4 Ole Miss 24-21 on the road – a game where the Cougars led for a majority of the first three quarters . The visitors held the Rebels to their lowest scoring output of the season as massive 32.5-point underdogs.
A week later, Washington State fell to #18 Virginia 22-20 in another nail-biter, with Virginia’s defense forcing a safety with 2:45 remaining for the winning margin.
These aren’t the results of a mediocre team – they’re the hallmarks of a squad that can compete with anyone when properly motivated. And with bowl eligibility on the line, the Cougars will be plenty motivated Saturday.
The Handicapping Angle
Our full season model projects James Madison winning 23-14, while our recent-form model (last 7 games) has it even tighter at 21-15 – just a 6-point margin. These projections account for the massive schedule strength disparity between the two teams.
SP+ ratings give WSU a -4.8 rating, ranking 82nd out of 136 FBS schools, which might not sound impressive until you realize they’ve been competitive with teams in the top 20.
Washington State has quietly become one of the better underdog teams in the country, covering the spread in four straight when getting points. This trend demonstrates their ability to play up to competition and keep games closer than expected.
Meanwhile, James Madison is 4-2 ATS as the favorite and 5-2 ATS in regular-season games in 2025, showing they’ve been solid but not dominant in covering spreads.
The Cross-Country Factor
Don’t underestimate the travel element here. Washington State must fly across the country to Harrisonburg, Virginia – a journey that typically results in jet lag and disrupted preparation. But if the Cougars can hang with Ole Miss in Oxford and Virginia in Charlottesville, they can certainly handle the atmosphere at Bridgeforth Stadium.
The Bottom Line
Should James Madison be in the College Football Playoff conversation? Based on their schedule, probably not. They’d likely get blown out by any of the true contenders. But that doesn’t mean they won’t win Saturday – in fact, they probably will.
The question isn’t who wins, but by how much. With Washington State’s proven ability to compete against superior competition and James Madison’s untested resume against quality opponents, the 14-point spread feels too wide.
The play here is simple: take the points with a Washington State team that has nothing to lose and everything to prove. The Cougars have shown repeatedly this season that they belong on the field with anyone. James Madison may win this game, but expecting them to cover a two-touchdown spread against a Power Four opponent – even one with a 5-5 record – is asking too much.
The Pick: Washington State +14 (BetOnline)
We’ll be rooting for the Dukes to prove us wrong and make their case for the playoffs with a dominant performance. But the smart money says this game stays within two touchdowns, giving Cougar backers the cover they need.