The 2025 college football season kicks off with a matchup between Fresno State and Kansas on August 23 at 6:30 PM EST in Lawrence. Kansas opens its newly remodeled stadium as a 14-point favorite (betonline and mybookie) against a Fresno State team navigating significant changes.
Fresno State: A Team in Transition
Fresno State enters 2025 with a new coaching staff led by Matt Entz, who arrives from USC where he served as defensive coordinator in 2024. Entz, previously a successful head coach at North Dakota State, inherits a Bulldogs squad coming off a 6-7 season. The roster is in flux, with only 30% of the offense returning and a mere four offensive starters, including just two on the offensive line. Defensively, only three starters are back, raising concerns about cohesion early in the season.
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The Bulldogs did make a splash in the transfer portal, landing quarterback EJ Warner, son of NFL Hall of Famer Kurt Warner. Warner, who has experience at Temple and Rice, brings a pedigree and playmaking ability to Fresno’s offense. However, with a rebuilt offensive line and a new system under Entz, Warner’s integration will be critical. Fresno’s lack of returning production and new coaching staff suggests growing pains are likely, especially on the road against a Power 4 opponent.
Kansas: Home Sweet (Renovated) Home
Kansas, coming off a 5-7 campaign, also faces challenges with only three starters returning on each side of the ball. However, the Jayhawks have a trump card in star quarterback Jalon Daniels, who returns for his final season. Daniels’ dual-threat ability gives Kansas a significant edge, particularly against a Fresno State defense that must replace eight starters. Last season, Kansas ranked 92nd in total defense, but their offense, when healthy, showed flashes of explosiveness.
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Five of Kansas’ seven losses in 2024 were by six points or less, indicating they were competitive despite their record. The return of Daniels, combined with the energy of playing in a revamped stadium, sets the stage for a strong start. Like Fresno State, Kansas leaned on the transfer portal to bolster its roster, and early indications suggest their additions are meshing well. With Daniels leading the charge, the Jayhawks’ offense should exploit Fresno’s depleted defense.
Betting Analysis: Kansas -14
Our model, based on last season’s data, projected a 37-14 Kansas win if these teams had met in 2024. While both squads lost significant talent, Kansas appears better equipped to hit the ground running. Daniels’ experience and playmaking ability provide a stabilizing force, while Fresno State’s new coaching staff and limited returning production could lead to early struggles, especially on offense.
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The 14-point spread is substantial, but Kansas’ home-field advantage in a newly renovated stadium, coupled with Fresno’s roster turnover, tilts the scales in the Jayhawks’ favor. Fresno’s offensive line, with only two returning starters, may struggle to protect Warner against a Kansas defense eager to make a statement.
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Meanwhile, Daniels and the Jayhawks’ offense should find success against a Bulldogs defense lacking continuity.
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The key variable is how well each team’s transfer portal additions perform. Kansas’ continuity at quarterback gives them an edge in this department, as Daniels’ familiarity with the system allows for quicker assimilation of new pieces. Fresno, on the other hand, must rely on Warner to adapt to a new playbook and a rebuilt supporting cast, a tall order in a hostile road environment.
The Pick: Kansas -14
We’re laying the points with Kansas in this season opener. The Jayhawks’ offensive firepower, led by Jalon Daniels, should overwhelm a Fresno State defense in transition. Entz’s defensive expertise may help the Bulldogs in time, but Week 1 on the road is a tough spot for a team with so many new faces. Kansas, motivated to christen their renovated stadium with a statement win, is poised to start 2025 with a bang. Expect the Jayhawks to pull away in the second half, covering the 14-point spread in a convincing win.