Georgia at Tennessee: Can the Vols Finally End the Bulldogs’ Dominance?

Saturday, September 13, 2025 | 3:30 PM ET | ABC | Neyland Stadium

The most anticipated SEC showdown of early season action arrives in Knoxville as No. 6 Georgia travels to face No. 15 Tennessee with College GameDay in town. At MyBookie, the Bulldogs are favored by 3.5 points with a total of 49.5 points, setting up what could be the most competitive meeting between these programs in nearly a decade.

The Streak That Defines This Rivalry

Georgia enters this contest riding an eight-game winning streak against Tennessee, with every victory coming by at least 14 points. Under Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs have been utterly dominant in this series, outscoring the Volunteers by an average of more than two touchdowns per game. The psychological edge is undeniable – Tennessee hasn’t beaten Georgia since that memorable Josh Dobbs-to-Jauan Jennings Hail Mary in 2016.

But here’s what makes this matchup different: the betting market is telling a compelling story. The line has moved dramatically from Georgia opening as 7-point road favorites down to just 3.5 points. Even more telling, Tennessee is receiving 60% of the money to cover the spread, suggesting sharp bettors see value in the home underdogs.

Quarterback Storylines Drive the Narrative

Both teams enter with questions at the most important position. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton will make his first SEC road start, while Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar gets his first SEC start period. This inexperience at quarterback could lead to a more conservative, lower-scoring affair than many expect.

Stockton has shown flashes but struggled against Austin Peay in what should have been a blowout. Coach Smart acknowledged the challenge ahead: “It’s a different demeanor when you go on the road in the SEC, especially when you have not been on the road. Your first road game’s in the SEC… it’s always an adventure.”

Defensive Advantages for Both Sides

Georgia’s defense remains elite, but Tennessee has shown they can move the ball, putting up 72 points against East Tennessee State. However, the Volunteers will be without two starting defensive backs in Rickey Gibson and Jermod McCoy, which could be problematic against a Georgia offense that needs to establish rhythm.

The key matchup will be Tennessee’s defensive front against Georgia’s offensive line. The Bulldogs are hoping to get back starters Juan Gaston and Earnest Greene, which would significantly improve their protection for Stockton.

Why the Under 49.5 Makes Sense

Several factors point toward a lower-scoring game than the market expects:

• Inexperienced quarterbacks making their first major SEC starts
• Georgia’s conservative approach with a young signal-caller on the road
• Tennessee’s injury-depleted secondary potentially forcing them into more conservative coverage
• Early season rust with both teams still finding their identity
• Weather and atmosphere in Knoxville can affect timing and execution

The under has hit in five of Georgia’s last seven road games against ranked opponents. With both teams likely to rely heavily on their running games and short passing attacks, this total feels inflated.

The Side: Why Georgia -3.5 Has Value

Despite ESPN’s analytics giving Tennessee a 51.5% chance to win, the fundamentals still favor Georgia:

Superior Depth and Talent: The Bulldogs simply have more talent across the roster, particularly on defense where they’ve consistently neutralized Tennessee’s explosive offense.

Coaching Edge: Kirby Smart is 8-0 against Josh Heupel and has shown an ability to make crucial halftime adjustments.

Motivation Factor: Georgia knows they need a statement win to validate their top-10 ranking after uninspiring performances against Marshall and Austin Peay.

Historical Dominance: Until Tennessee actually proves they can beat Georgia, the smart money stays with the team that has owned this matchup for nearly a decade.

The line movement suggests public money on Tennessee, but Georgia’s track record in this series and superior talent should prevail in a tight contest.

Best Bets at MyBookie

Primary Play: Georgia -3.5 (-110) The Bulldogs have the coaching, talent, and psychological edge. While Tennessee has improved, eight straight wins with none being close speaks volumes.

Strong Lean: Under 49.5 (-110) Inexperienced quarterbacks, early season conservatism, and both teams’ likely reliance on running games point toward a defensive struggle.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Tennessee 17

The Volunteers will make it interesting in front of their home crowd, but Georgia’s depth and Smart’s coaching will ultimately prevail in another chapter of Bulldog dominance. The streak reaches nine.