Georgia Tech vs Duke: Yellow Jackets Looking to Keep Magic Season Alive
Every year there’s a team or two that catches the attention of the college football world due to a fast start and an unblemished record. Then, the talk begins. Are they really good or just lucky and do they belong in the playoff conversation? Well, don’t look now but Georgia Tech is undefeated at 6-0 and sitting on top of the ACC with a 3-0 conference record. Duke has already lost twice, to Illinois and Tulane, but they too sit at 3-0 in the ACC making this a huge conference game when these teams meet Saturday at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham.
Now let’s be clear, neither of these teams has faced a daunting schedule. Tech has wins over Clemson and Colorado, but that Clemson win currently isn’t looking as great as it did when it happened. These teams come in with similar strong numbers in the important metrics such as yards per rush and yards per play differentials and look to be fairly evenly matched. The oddsmakers have the number just about right here with Duke favored by 1.5 points and a total of 61 at MyBookie.
But some things don’t show up in the numbers. Specifically, as mentioned above, every year we see a team or two in college football that winds their way through a season and manages to stay unbeaten. They are usually decent teams but they are also catching every break along the way. A magical season if you will. Winning breeds winning and that’s where Georgia Tech sits right now. A win here and they have a very clear path to staying unbeaten until late November and their final two games against Pitt and Georgia. So there’s a very real possibility that Tech enters the Georgia game undefeated. Other than Pittsburgh, the schedule looks to be a cakewalk. But they have to get by Duke first.
Breaking Down the Numbers
The Yellow Jackets are averaging 36.7 points per outing and rank 12th nationally in rushing at 238.0 yards per game. They’ve accumulated 2,861 total yards this season with a balanced attack that features 25 total touchdowns – six through the air and 19 on the ground. The defense has been solid, ranking 49th in the country while allowing 21.0 points per contest.
Duke brings its own offensive firepower, averaging 36.5 points per game (25th nationally) and 467.0 yards per contest (20th in Division 1). The Blue Devils have been particularly dangerous through the air, averaging 310.0 passing yards per game which ranks 10th in college football. However, their defense has been more vulnerable, giving up 25.5 points per game and ranking 78th nationally.
The Quarterback Battle
At the heart of this matchup are two of the ACC’s top signal-callers. Duke’s quarterback has been on fire, recording 250+ passing yards in six consecutive games heading into Week 8 – the longest active streak in the FBS. He’s completed 69.8% of his passes for 1,838 yards with 15 touchdowns and leads an offense that ranks top-20 in points per quality drive since Week 3.
For Georgia Tech, Haynes King brings veteran savvy to the position. The dual-threat quarterback has completed 71.2% of his passes for 971 yards with four touchdowns while also leading the team in rushing with 440 yards. Perhaps most impressively, King has zero turnover-worthy plays this season, showcasing the kind of smart, mistake-free football that championship runs are built on.
Recent Form and Trends
Georgia Tech is coming off a dominant 35-20 home win over Virginia Tech where they piled up 481 total yards and rushed for 268 yards at 6.4 yards per carry. The Yellow Jackets converted 7 of 12 third downs and never trailed in the game. Georgia Tech is 4-2 ATS this season and has won four straight meetings with Duke, though the Blue Devils are 3-1 in their last four home matchups against the Yellow Jackets.
Duke is riding a three-game winning streak, having scored 128 combined points in wins over NC State, Syracuse, and California. The Blue Devils are 3-3 ATS on the season and have been particularly explosive lately, scoring 38+ points in their last three games. Duke ranks top-20 in points per play since Week 3 and their offense has been humming under the direction of their veteran coaching staff.
The Stakes
The winner of this game will be in prime position to reach the ACC Championship game in Charlotte. Both teams sit at 3-0 in conference play, and the winner will own the critical head-to-head tiebreaker. For Georgia Tech, a win would give them a favorable schedule the rest of the way with Syracuse, NC State, Boston College, and Pittsburgh remaining. For Duke, they need this win to stay in control of their ACC destiny with Virginia and other conference games still ahead.
Betting Analysis
Our models project a shootout in this one. One model has Duke prevailing 33-30 while the other has Georgia Tech squeaking by 30-29. The over/under of 61 looks like the right number with both offenses ranking in the top 25 nationally and combining for 73.2 points per game. The last three meetings between these teams have gone under, but both offenses are clicking at a higher level than in previous years.
Georgia Tech is 4-2 ATS this season while Duke sits at 3-3 ATS. Tech is getting 1.5 points, which shows respect for the Yellow Jackets’ unbeaten record despite playing in a hostile environment.
The Pick
We think this is just one of those magical years for Tech. They’ll get a key turnover or big play and find a way to come out on top in this one, which will have everyone talking about the Yellow Jackets from now till late November. Georgia Tech has shown a knack for winning close games, having come back from deficits against Colorado, Clemson, and Wake Forest earlier this season. That kind of resilience and clutch play is difficult to quantify but impossible to ignore.
The Yellow Jackets defense has been the more reliable unit, allowing 21.0 points per game compared to Duke’s 25.5. In a game that should see plenty of points, that defensive edge combined with King’s mistake-free play at quarterback should be enough to keep the perfect season alive.
Take Georgia Tech +1.5 and expect the Yellow Jackets to find a way to win this game outright as they continue their march toward an ACC Championship appearance.