Indiana vs. Ohio State Big Ten Championship: Finding Value with the Hoosiers
The Big Ten Championship features a historic matchup between two undefeated powerhouses as #1 Ohio State (12-0) faces #2 Indiana (12-0) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night. With Ohio State sitting as a 4-point favorite and the total at 48 at MyBookie, we’re examining whether there’s still value after grabbing Indiana +6 and under 49.5 early in the week.
Statistical Excellence on Both Sides
These teams didn’t earn their perfect records by accident. The advanced metrics paint a picture of two elite squads:
Ohio State leads the nation in defensive yards per point at 24.4, while Indiana sits third at 22.5. On the offensive side, Indiana ranks fourth nationally in offensive yards per point (11.2), with Ohio State at 14th (12.3). The Hoosiers also hold the edge in yards per rush attempt differential (+2.4 vs. +1.8) and are nearly identical in yards per play differential (Indiana +2.3, Ohio State +2.8).
What stands out most is their performance against common opponents. Both teams faced Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, and UCLA, and remarkably, both allowed exactly 50 points to these teams combined. However, Indiana outscored them 233-50 while Ohio State managed 188-50 – a 45-point scoring differential that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Model Projections Support the Underdog
Our proprietary models consistently project this as a field goal game or less, with Ohio State winning by just 2-3 points across different time parameters. These projections suggest significant value remains on Indiana +4, especially considering the Hoosiers are essentially a pick ’em according to these numbers.
Interestingly, ESPN’s Football Power Index actually gives Indiana a slight edge with a 51% win probability, despite the betting line favoring Ohio State. This disconnect between analytical models and the betting market often creates opportunities for sharp bettors.
The Quarterback Duel
Fernando Mendoza has been exceptional for Indiana, completing 72% of his passes for 2,758 yards with 32 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He’s shown poise in crucial moments, engineering game-winning drives against Oregon and Penn State that demonstrated Indiana’s ability to compete with elite programs.
Julian Sayin has been equally impressive, potentially setting the college football record for completion percentage at 80.9%. His 2,832 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and just four interceptions showcase remarkable efficiency. While Sayin has the better supporting cast, Mendoza has proven he can elevate his team when it matters most.
Defensive Dominance Points to the Under
Ohio State’s defense is historically dominant, allowing just 206.6 yards per game – no other team in the nation allows under 240. They’ve held opponents to under 10 total touchdowns all season and allow just 3.77 yards per play. Meanwhile, Indiana leads the nation in havoc rate at 25%, constantly disrupting opposing offenses with pressure and turnovers.
When two elite defenses meet in a championship setting, scoring typically comes at a premium. Ohio State is 8-4 to the under this season, including 3-0 under against ranked opponents. The total has also gone under in 8 of Ohio State’s last 12 games as a favorite.
Historical Context and Motivation
While Ohio State leads the all-time series 81-12-5 and Indiana hasn’t won since 1988, this is a fundamentally different Hoosiers program under Curt Cignetti. The NIL era has leveled the playing field, allowing Indiana to compete for talent in ways previously impossible.
Moreover, Indiana has more at stake emotionally. They haven’t won a Big Ten title since 1967, while Ohio State has championship fatigue. The Hoosiers demonstrated their ability to compete with anyone by defeating #5 Oregon on the road earlier this season.
Betting Trends and Market Movement
The line movement tells an important story. Ohio State opened -6 and has been bet down to -4 at most books, indicating sharp money on Indiana. The total has similarly dropped from 49.5 to 48-48.5. Ohio State enters 10-2 ATS this season, failing to cover only against Ohio (by half a point) and at Purdue. Indiana is 7-5 ATS but has shown resilience as an underdog, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when getting points.
The Bottom Line
Everything points to a defensive struggle decided by a single possession. Our models project Ohio State by 2-3 points, well within the current number. With Indiana’s superior performance against common opponents, their motivation to end a 57-year championship drought, and the likelihood of a low-scoring game, there’s still value on both Indiana +4 and under 48.
In a game featuring the two best defenses in college football and championship pressure, taking the points and the under appears to be the sharp play.
Recommended Bets:
- Indiana +4
- Under 48