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Indiana vs Old Dominion Betting Preview: Season Opener – 8-30-25

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Old Dominion at Indiana CFB Free Pick ATS

Indiana vs Old Dominion Betting Preview: Season Opener

Game Details:

The Storyline: Historic Hoosiers Look to Repeat Magic

Indiana football enters the 2025 season with unprecedented expectations after Curt Cignetti’s historic first year in Bloomington. The Hoosiers completed one of the most remarkable turnarounds in college football history, finishing 11-2 overall and 8-1 in Big Ten play before falling to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff’s first round.

The question facing Indiana isn’t whether they can be competitive—it’s whether they can duplicate that lightning-in-a-bottle success. The school announced Monday that it has reinstated Hoosier the Bison as its official mascot after a nearly 60-year hiatus, with the Bison set to make its debut when the Hoosiers take on Old Dominion in their season opener, adding symbolic significance to what promises to be a celebration of the program’s renaissance.

Indiana’s Path Forward: Building on Success

While skeptics might point to last season’s relatively soft schedule, Cignetti has positioned his program for sustained excellence. The coach has retained significant returning talent while adding quality transfers, backed by the university’s commitment to NIL resources—a perfect example of how college football has essentially become a professional sport.

Cignetti has brought in the 18th-best transfer portal class, according to 247Sports, headlined by former University of California, Berkeley transfer Fernando Mendoza, who is slated to succeed Kurtis Rourke at quarterback. The continuity in coaching staff and system, combined with proven transfer additions, suggests Indiana can realistically target 9+ wins and remain extremely competitive in the expanded Big Ten.

Coach Curt Cignetti will ignore the noise, and he has IU well-positioned to win nine or more games in back-to-back seasons for the first time ever thanks to the job he did locking up top returning talent and securing proven transfers.

Old Dominion: The Monarchs’ Uphill Battle

Old Dominion presents a stark contrast, coming off a disappointing 5-7 season (4-4 in Sun Belt play). The Monarchs return minimal production with just three returning starters on offense and six on defense—a concerning lack of continuity heading into a challenging road opener.

However, ODU showed flashes of competitiveness when stepping up in class last season. They kept things respectable against South Carolina (falling 19-23) and showed fight against Virginia Tech despite a 17-37 loss. These performances suggest the Monarchs can at least compete early in games against superior opponents.

The concerning reality for Old Dominion is that they haven’t posted a winning record since 2016, and the talent gap between a Sun Belt program and a resurging Big Ten contender appears substantial.

The Betting Analysis

The Spread: Indiana -23.5

This number feels right given the talent disparity. Our predictive model, using data from the final seven games of last season, projects a 49-10 Indiana win—a scoreline that wouldn’t surprise given the circumstances.

Indiana should be as good as last season, if not better, with improved quarterback play from Mendoza and a defense that returns significant production. Old Dominion remains a question mark with minimal returning talent and a program still searching for its identity under head coach Ricky Rahne.

The 23.5-point spread accounts for several factors:

The Total: 54.5

This number leans toward the under. While Indiana should move the ball effectively against ODU’s defense, the Monarchs’ offensive limitations could keep this from becoming a shootout. Indiana’s defense, with more returning talent than their offense, should be able to contain ODU’s attack.

The under becomes more attractive if Indiana builds an early lead and shifts toward ball control in the second half, limiting total possessions and keeping the clock moving.

The Verdict

Indiana -23.5 represents solid value in this spot. The Hoosiers are the superior team in virtually every facet, playing at home in their season opener with everything to prove. Old Dominion’s lack of returning production and the step up in competition class makes covering this spread a significant challenge.

While 23.5 points is never a small number, the talent gap and situational factors favor Indiana covering comfortably. The total staying under 54.5 also presents value, as ODU’s offensive limitations could prevent this from reaching the projected total.

Best Bets:

The Hoosiers begin their quest to prove 2024 wasn’t a fluke, and Old Dominion represents the type of opponent where style points matter early in the season. Expect Indiana to make a statement in front of their home crowd.

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