Cy‑Hawk rivalry set for renewed fireworks
The long‑running Iowa–Iowa State showdown returns to Ames on Sept. 6. Iowa leads the all‑time series 47–24 and has dominated the rivalry historically, with a 15‑game win streak from 1983‑97 and the largest victory (57–3 in 1985). However, momentum has shifted recently. The Cyclones stunned Iowa in Iowa City last season, 20‑19, and come into the 2025 meeting on a one‑game winning streak. This year’s matchup is also notable because Iowa State has struggled at home – the Cyclones are just 8‑21 in Cy‑Hawk games played in Ames and hadn’t won on their own field since 2011. Breaking that trend while retaining the Cy‑Hawk Trophy would be a significant statement.
Season openers tell two different stories
Iowa State has looked sharp in its first two games. Matt Campbell’s team travelled to Ireland in Week 0 and upset a ranked Kansas State team before dismantling South Dakota 55‑7 in its home opener. Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht completed 19 of 20 passes for 278 yards and three touchdowns against the Coyotes, tying a Big 12 record for accuracy and leading an attack that out‑gained South Dakota 529‑209. Tight end Benjamin Brahmer caught seven passes for 47 yards and two scores, and eight different Cyclones rushed for touchdowns. The explosive start has raised expectations that this could be Iowa State’s best offense under Campbell.
Iowa, meanwhile, is still searching for rhythm under new quarterback Mark Gronowski. The South Dakota State transfer won more than 50 games in the FCS and threw for over 10,000 yards and 90 touchdowns in his collegiate career, but his Hawkeye debut was uneven. In a 34‑7 win over Albany he completed only 8 of 15 throws for 44 yards and admitted he was “disappointed” in his performance. Coach Kirk Ferentz acknowledged that Gronowski was too amped up and expects him to relax at Ames. The Hawkeyes dominated Albany on the ground (53 rushes for 310 yards), but the passing game remains a work in progress.
Key match‑ups
Quarterback advantage: Becht has been almost flawless in the early going, demonstrating poise and touch on deep throws and quick reads. Gronowski’s dual‑threat ability fits Tim Lester’s run‑first scheme, but he has not yet developed chemistry with a receiver corps that lacks experience – Jacob Gill is the only returning wideout with more than 400 yards last season. Iowa State clearly holds the quarterback edge.
Offensive line vs defensive front: Iowa’s offensive line returns three starters and is anchored by center Logan Jones and right tackle Gennings Dunker. The Cyclones’ defensive front counters with speed and length; they harassed Kansas State and South Dakota and should test Gronowski’s pocket presence. Iowa’s defense is once again a strength; ends Ethan Hurkett and Maxwell Llewellyn combined for 78 tackles and 12 sacks in 2024 and interior tackle Aaron Graves added six sacks. But Iowa State’s offensive line kept Becht clean in the opener and opened lanes for a balanced rushing attack – a good sign against a Hawkeye unit replacing NFL draftees Yahya Black, Jay Higgins and Sebastian Castro.
Special teams and intangibles: Iowa State kicker Kyle Konrardy drilled a school‑record 63‑yard field goal against South Dakota, showing the Cyclones can score from long range. Iowa will likely lean on punter Tory Taylor to control field position and ask its defense to create turnovers, much like last year when they nearly upset Iowa State despite being out‑gained. Historically, games in this rivalry are decided by a single score and the underdog often plays above its head.
Betting outlook and prediction
Sportsbooks opened Iowa State as a 2½‑point favorite with a total around 42½ points (betonline). The line has since moved to –3, suggesting bettors trust the Cyclones. Our model, which blends last year’s data and early‑season performance, projects a 24‑19 Iowa State win. That score nearly mirrors the 2024 result and would put the total just over the posted number.
The case for laying the points rests on quarterback play and recent form. Iowa State boasts the more polished passing game and multiple explosive weapons, while Iowa appears reliant on a ground‑and‑defense formula that could struggle if forced to play from behind. Unless Gronowski makes a dramatic leap in one week, the Cyclones’ balanced offense should produce enough scoring drives to create separation.
Pick: Iowa State –3. Expect a competitive, physical Cy‑Hawk game, but Iowa State’s efficiency on offense and situational experience should allow the Cyclones to retain the Cy‑Hawk Trophy and cover the spread.