Kansas State at Baylor: Wildcats Getting the Points in High-Scoring Big 12 Affair
Saturday, October 4, 2025 | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Spread: Baylor -6.5 | Total: 61.5 (MyBookie)
The Big 12 Conference continues to deliver competitive matchups, and Saturday’s matchup between Kansas State and Baylor fits that mold perfectly. Both teams enter with similar results, and both have shown they can compete with quality opponents while also displaying concerning vulnerabilities. With the Bears installed as 6.5-point home favorites, this matchup presents value on the underdog Wildcats.
Kansas State’s Season: Finding Their Footing
The Wildcats finally got back in the win column last week with a home win over UCF, snapping a brief losing streak and providing some much-needed momentum. Their season has been defined by narrow margins—competitive losses to Arizona and Iowa State showed they can hang with solid teams, but a home defeat to Army and a too-close-for-comfort result against North Dakota raised legitimate questions about consistency.
This road test against a similarly situated opponent will serve as a measuring stick for how Kansas State responds away from Manhattan. The Wildcats need to establish their ground game early and control possession to keep Baylor’s explosive offense off the field.
Baylor’s Offensive Firepower, Defensive Concerns
The Bears have proven they can light up the scoreboard, posting 40-plus points three times already this season. Their offensive scheme creates mismatches and generates big plays through the air and on the ground. Losses to Auburn and Arizona State can be attributed to facing quality competition, but the defensive performance has been problematic.
Last week’s outing against Oklahoma State should concern Baylor backers. Allowing 25 points to one of the conference’s most struggling offenses exposed continued defensive issues. Outside of a comfortable win over FCS opponent Samford, the Bears have surrendered 24 or more points in every game. This lack of defensive consistency suggests Kansas State will find scoring opportunities throughout Saturday’s contest.
Breaking Down the Matchup
The total of 61.5 reflects oddsmakers’ expectation of an offensive-minded game, and the evidence supports that projection. Baylor’s defensive struggles create opportunities for the Wildcats to sustain drives and reach the end zone multiple times. Meanwhile, Kansas State’s defense will have its hands full containing Baylor’s diverse offensive attack.
This sets up as a possession-game scenario where the last team with the football may determine the outcome. In that type of environment, grabbing 6.5 points with a Kansas State team that’s shown it can compete in close games throughout the season offers significant value.
Trends and Historical Context
Kansas State is 2-3 against the spread this season, while Baylor sits at 1-4 ATS—a red flag for bettors considering laying nearly a touchdown with the home team. The Wildcats have covered in competitive games against quality opponents, suggesting they’ll keep this one within the number even if they don’t win outright.
Both programs understand Big 12 football’s physical nature, and road underdogs in conference play historically perform better than their spread would indicate. The Wildcats’ ability to run the football and control the clock could frustrate Baylor’s rhythm and keep the margin manageable throughout.
The Bottom Line
Our predictive model projects a 30-27 final score in favor of Baylor, indicating these teams are essentially even with home-field advantage making the difference. In a game expected to feature multiple lead changes and offensive fireworks on both sides, Kansas State’s experience in close contests this season positions them well to either win outright or lose by a field goal or less.
The Bears’ defensive issues provide the clearest path to covering for the Wildcats. If Kansas State can establish offensive rhythm early and force Baylor into a shootout, those 6.5 points become increasingly valuable as the game progresses into the fourth quarter.
Pick: Kansas State +6.5
In a game between two evenly matched teams with offensive capabilities and defensive question marks, take the points with the road underdog. Kansas State has proven it belongs in tight contests, and Baylor’s inability to stop opponents consistently suggests this one stays within a touchdown throughout.