Kansas State vs. Iowa State CFB Preview – 8-23-25

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5 days ago

Kansas State vs. Iowa State CFB Pick 2025

The 2025 college football season begins with Kansas State facing Iowa State in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. This neutral-site Big 12 contest figures to be a tight contest, given the teams’ recent history.

Game Details

Date: Saturday, August 23, 2025
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland (neutral site)
Spread: Kansas State -3.5
Total: 49
Model Prediction: Based on the last seven games of the 2024 season, the model projects a Kansas State 32-30 win.

Returning Production

Kansas State (14th, 67% overall): Returns 71% of offensive production (17th) and 63% of defensive production (27th). Quarterback Avery Johnson’s dual-threat ability, and a veteran offensive line drive the offense. The defense, with a seasoned secondary, is equipped to handle passing attacks.
Iowa State (41st, 61% overall): Returns 65% of offensive production (43rd) and 57% of defensive production (54th). Iowa State’s defense, a strength under Matt Campbell, returns less production but remains disciplined.

Kansas State’s edge in returning production, especially offensively, suggests better cohesion early in the season. Adjusting the model for this factor slightly favors Kansas State, potentially increasing their projected margin to around 4–6 points.

Recent Head-to-Head History (2015–2024)

The last 10 meetings show each time winning 5:

11/30/2024: Iowa State 29, Kansas State 21
11/25/2023: Iowa State 42, Kansas State 35
10/8/2022: Kansas State 10, Iowa State 9
10/16/2021: Iowa State 33, Kansas State 20
11/21/2020: Iowa State 45, Kansas State 0
11/30/2019: Kansas State 27, Iowa State 17
11/24/2018: Iowa State 42, Kansas State 38
11/25/2017: Kansas State 20, Iowa State 19
10/29/2016: Kansas State 31, Iowa State 26
11/21/2015: Kansas State 38, Iowa State 35

Trends:

Close Games: Seven of the last 10 games were decided by one possession (8 points or fewer), highlighting the rivalry’s competitiveness.
Against the Spread (ATS): Iowa State covered in 4 of the last 5 games with one push
Scoring: The average total points across these games is 53.5, above the 2025 total of 49, suggesting a potentially lower-scoring game due to early-season dynamics and the neutral site.
Recent Momentum: Iowa State’s back-to-back wins make them a dangerous dog.

Predictive Analysis

The model’s 32-30 Kansas State prediction (2-point margin) is adjusted based on returning production, favoring Kansas State by a slightly larger margin (approximately 4–6 points) due to their offensive edge (71% vs. 65%).

A projected score of Kansas State 27, Iowa State 21 aligns with this adjustment.

However, Iowa State’s ATS success and ability to keep games close (4-2 in one-possession games in 2024) make them a live underdog.

We’d anticipate some Iowa State money showing up and pushing this number to -3 or less. Wait to play this one closer to game day.

Kansas State -3 or less