Maryland at Wisconsin Betting Preview: Value Lies with the Terrapins
Game Details:
Saturday, September 20, 2025 – 12:00 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
TV: NBC | Streaming: Peacock
Current MyBookie Line: Wisconsin -10, Total 44
Our Recommendations: Maryland +10, Under 44
Model Prediction: Wisconsin wins by 5, total points under 36
Why Maryland Plus the Points Makes Sense
The Terrapins enter this Big Ten opener at Wisconsin riding a perfect 3-0 record, having extended their non-conference winning streak to an impressive 18 games – the longest active streak in the nation. While critics point to Maryland’s soft schedule featuring Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, and Towson, their performance metrics tell a story that suggests they’re being undervalued in this spot.
Maryland’s defensive unit has been exceptional through three games, surrendering just 33 total points – the program’s fewest allowed through three contests since 2001. Their scoring defense currently ranks 20th nationally at 11.0 points per game, and they’ve been particularly stingy in the red zone, ranking second nationally by allowing opponents to score just 42.9% of the time inside the 20-yard line.
The Terrapins have also created havoc for opposing offenses, leading the FBS with seven interceptions while posting a +6 turnover margin that ranks tied for second nationally. Linebacker La’Khi Roland showcased this playmaking ability with a 100-yard pick-six against Towson – the longest interception return for a touchdown by any Maryland player in over 60 seasons.
Wisconsin’s Concerning Trends
The Badgers’ 38-14 shellacking at Alabama last weekend exposed several weaknesses that Maryland could exploit. Wisconsin started 2-0 against weak opposition before facing their first quality opponent, and the results were troubling. The loss dropped Wisconsin to 2-1 and raised serious questions.
Quarterback uncertainty continues to plague the Badgers, with starter Billy Edwards listed as day-to-day due to a knee injury suffered in Week 1. Edwards facing his former team adds an intriguing storyline, but his health remains questionable. If Edwards cannot go, sophomore Danny O’Neil would make his third career start – hardly the stable presence Wisconsin needs in a must-win conference opener.
Freshman Phenom Leading Maryland’s Offense
True freshman Malik Washington has exceeded all expectations under center for the Terrapins. Washington leads all FBS true freshmen with 773 passing yards and six touchdowns through three games, making him just the third Maryland quarterback in 30 seasons to reach those marks after three contests.
Washington’s 773 yards represent the most by any true freshman through three career games in a Power Conference since 2018, when Texas Tech’s Alan Bowman threw for 1,160 yards. The young signal-caller has displayed remarkable poise, going 96 attempts before throwing his first career interception – the longest streak by a Terrapin since 2010.
Supporting Washington is a veteran receiving corps that ranks as the most productive senior class in the Big Ten with 501 combined receiving yards. Senior Shaleak Knotts leads the way with 196 receiving yards, while Jalil Farooq recently surpassed 100 career receptions.
The Case for the Under
Our model’s prediction of 36 total points aligns with several concerning offensive trends from both teams. Wisconsin’s attack struggled mightily against Alabama’s defense, managing just 14 points against their first quality opponent. The Badgers’ quarterback situation remains unsettled, which historically leads to conservative game plans and reduced scoring output.
Maryland has shown the ability to control games defensively while playing methodical offense behind their freshman quarterback. The Terrapins have allowed opponents to score on opening possessions zero times this season – a stat they share with only Penn State among Big Ten teams.
Weather could also play a factor, with forecasts calling for a high of 75 degrees with potential afternoon thunderstorms. Camp Randall’s conditions have historically favored defensive battles, particularly in conference openers where teams are still finding their identity.
Historical Context Supports Our Play
The 2022 meeting between these teams produced a 23-10 Wisconsin win- a total of just 33 points that stayed well under most posted totals. Maryland has rushed for over 100 yards in each of their last three games against Wisconsin, suggesting they can control the ground game and keep the clock moving.
Wisconsin holds a 4-0 all-time series advantage, but three of those four meetings have been decided by 14 points or fewer. The Badgers’ largest margin came in their first meeting in 2014 (52-7), but subsequent games have been much more competitive, including a 31-24 Wisconsin win in 2015.
The Bottom Line
Maryland enters as a live underdog getting double digits against a Wisconsin team coming off an embarrassing loss and dealing with quarterback uncertainty. The Terrapins’ defensive metrics suggest they can keep this game close, while both teams’ offensive limitations point toward a low-scoring affair.
Our model’s prediction of a 5-point Wisconsin win with under 36 total points strongly supports both our recommended plays. Take Maryland +10 and the Under 44 for Saturday’s Big Ten opener at Camp Randall Stadium.
Final Recommendations:
- Maryland +10 ✓
- Under 44 ✓