Miami (OH) vs. Wisconsin College Football Prediction
The Miami (OH) RedHawks take on the Wisconsin Badgers on August 28, 2025, at 9:00 PM EST in Madison. Wisconsin enters as a -17 point favorite with a total set of 41.5 at betonline.
Miami (OH) RedHawks: A Rebuild with Questions
Miami (OH) posted a strong 9-5 record last season (7-1 in the MAC), reaching the MAC Championship for the third time in six years, though they fell 38-3 to Ohio. However, the RedHawks face an unprecedented challenge in 2025: zero returning starters on offense, a rarity in over 35 years of college football handicapping.
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With only five defensive starters back, the defense should be serviceable, but the offense is a massive question mark.
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The RedHawks brought in veteran quarterback Dequan Finn from Toledo via the transfer portal. Finn’s dual-threat ability (2,657 passing yards, 22 TDs, and 563 rushing yards in 2023 at Toledo) offers hope, but integrating him with an entirely new offensive cast against a Power Four opponent in Week 1 is daunting. Miami also added transfers from solid programs, but team chemistry remains untested.
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Last season, Miami showed some grit when stepping up in class, losing 13-6 to Northwestern, 27-16 to Cincinnati, and 28-3 to Notre Dame. However, facing Wisconsin’s talent and physicality in Madison after such heavy roster turnover could overwhelm them early.
Wisconsin Badgers: Rebounding with Talent
Wisconsin stumbled to a 5-7 record (3-6 Big Ten) in 2024, missing a bowl game for the first time in 22 years—an unacceptable outcome for a program of their pedigree. Head coach Luke Fickell faces pressure to deliver, and the Badgers are poised for a rebound. With four offensive and six defensive starters returning, Wisconsin’s roster is bolstered by superior recruiting compared to Miami (OH).
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The Badgers have a new offensive coordinator, Jeff Grimes, and a new starting quarterback, Billy Edwards Jr., a transfer from Maryland. Edwards brings Big Ten experience, completing 65% of his passes for 2,881 yards, 15 touchdowns, and adding 148 rushing yards with 5 scores in 2024. His versatility fits Wisconsin’s aim to return to their traditional grind-it-out style.
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Defensively, Wisconsin struggled against the run last year, their worst performance since 2005. They’ve addressed this by beefing up the defensive line, which should help contain Miami’s unproven offense. In 2024, Wisconsin defeated MAC opponent Western Michigan 28-14 at home, offering a relevant data point.
Predictive Analysis
Our model, based on last season’s data, projected a 21-10 Wisconsin win had these teams met in 2024—a down year for the Badgers and a strong one for Miami (OH). This year, the gap widens due to Miami’s offensive turnover. Wisconsin’s talent advantage, home-field edge, and motivation to rebound should lead to a comfortable victory.
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Miami’s defense may keep the game close early, but their offense, led by Finn, will likely struggle to sustain drives against Wisconsin’s fortified front. Edwards and Wisconsin’s ground game should exploit Miami’s depleted roster in the second half, pulling away late.
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We like Wisconsin, as their physicality and depth should overwhelm Miami by at least three scores. The 41.5 total is is worth a look; Wisconsin’s offense could push the score higher, but Miami’s offensive woes may limit their contribution.
Betting Recommendations
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Wisconsin -17: The Badgers’ talent and Miami’s offensive rebuild make this a likely cover at home.
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Over 41.5: Wisconsin’s scoring potential, combined with a few points from Miami, supports a slight lean to the over.
Final Prediction
Wisconsin kicks off 2025 with a statement, leveraging their talent and physicality to overpower an overmatched Miami (OH) squad. Expect the Badgers to control the trenches and pull away in the second half.