Miami vs Ohio State Cotton Bowl CFP Quarterfinal Prediction
Game Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025 (New Year’s Eve)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET (ESPN)
Line: Ohio State -9.5 | Total: 41 (MyBookie)
The College Football Playoff quarterfinal round kicks off on New Year’s Eve when the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl Classic. With a trip to the semifinals on the line, both teams will bring elite defenses into this matchup, setting up what could be an old-fashioned defensive slugfest.
Miami Comes in Battle-Tested
The Hurricanes (11-2) punched their ticket to this round with an impressive defensive performance against Texas A&M at Kyle Field, winning 10-3 in a physical first-round showdown. Miami’s defense completely smothered the high-powered Aggies offense, holding them to a single field goal and just 4.3 yards per play. That kind of defensive effort will need to continue against an Ohio State team loaded with offensive firepower.
The 10-day rest period between games for Miami mirrors the type of layoff any college team might experience during the regular season. They’ve had time to prepare and rest, but perhaps more importantly, they’ve already played a high-stakes playoff game and know what the pressure feels like.
Ohio State’s Extended Layoff Could Be a Factor
This game marks Ohio State’s first CFP action of the year, as the Buckeyes earned a bye with their No. 2 seed. However, there’s a potential concern buried in the calendar. Ohio State last played on December 6th when they fell to Indiana 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game. That means Ryan Day’s squad will be approaching nearly four weeks without game action when they take the field Wednesday night.
Why does this matter? Consider last year’s CFP results. Oregon (No. 1 seed), Georgia (No. 2), Boise State (No. 3), and Arizona State (No. 4) all received byes and all four lost to lower-seeded teams that had already played and won in the first round. The results were emphatic: Ohio State knocked off Oregon 41-21, Notre Dame beat Georgia 23-10, Penn State handled Boise State 31-14, and Texas edged Arizona State 39-31 in overtime. Even Oregon acknowledged this year that they were happy to play a first-round game, attributing last season’s early exit to the bye week layoff. The rust factor is real, and it could be particularly relevant here.
Measuring the Schedules
Both of these teams played similar strength of schedules during the regular season, and truth be told, neither was overly daunting compared to the gauntlet some SEC programs faced. Miami’s path included an impressive first-round road win over Texas A&M and a big early-season win against Notre Dame that ultimately helped secure their playoff spot. Ohio State opened the season with a 14-7 defensive grind against Texas but didn’t face the same week-in, week-out challenges that programs like Alabama, Tennessee, or Auburn present. Of course, when the Buckeyes did face their toughest test against Indiana in the Big Ten title game, they came up short.
Key Metrics Favor Ohio State, But Not By Much
The statistical breakdown gives Ohio State the edge on paper, but the margins aren’t as wide as the 9.5-point spread might suggest.
Offensive Efficiency: Both teams share identical yards per point numbers offensively at 12.9, which ties them with several other programs for 14th nationally. These are balanced offensive attacks capable of moving the ball against most defenses.
Defensive Dominance: This is where both teams truly shine. Ohio State leads the nation with a 24.6 yards per point allowed figure, ranking first in the country. Miami isn’t far behind at 20.9, good for fourth nationally. These are two of college football’s most suffocating defenses, and that reality should heavily influence how we view the total.
Rushing Differential: Ohio State holds the advantage in yards per rush attempt differential at +1.7 compared to Miami’s +1.2. This edge in the ground game could be significant if the Buckeyes can control the tempo.
Yards Per Play Differential: The wider gap appears here, with Ohio State at +2.6 compared to Miami’s +1.6. This comprehensive efficiency metric suggests the Buckeyes are the more complete team on both sides of the ball.
Expect a Defensive Battle
On paper, this game projects to be a low-scoring affair, much like Miami’s 10-3 first-round win over Texas A&M and Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Indiana. Our model, which weighs the last seven games for each team more heavily, produces a projected final score of Ohio State 14, Miami 10. That sounds about right given what we’ve seen from both defenses down the stretch.
Both teams rank among the nation’s best in red-zone defense, third-down conversion rate allowed, and yards per play surrendered. Miami’s defensive front, led by standout edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., presents one of the most disruptive pass rushes Ohio State will have faced all season. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes boast future NFL talent at every level of their defense under coordinator Matt Patricia.
The quarterback matchup is worth monitoring closely. Carson Beck has the arm talent to produce big numbers when he’s on, and he’s been sharp lately with 1,228 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just one interception over his last five games with a 78% completion rate and 10.8 yards per attempt. However, his propensity for turnovers against elite defenses remains a concern. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin has been remarkably careful with the football, posting just 6 interceptions all season with the Buckeyes ranking fourth nationally in giveaways per game at 0.7.
The Case for Miami and the Points
When every point matters in a defensive struggle, we’d much rather be taking the generous points than laying them. Consider the situation: Miami brings a tested defense that just shut down a potent Texas A&M offense on the road. They’ve already shaken off playoff nerves with a road win in a hostile environment. Ohio State, despite being the more talented team, faces major questions about rust after nearly a month without playing.
The coaching trends don’t overwhelmingly favor either side in this matchup. Ohio State under Ryan Day is 2-0 ATS when coming off games where they scored 14 or fewer points, suggesting they tend to bounce back. But Miami has shown they can compete with anyone when their defense plays at this level.
A Hurricanes win isn’t out of the question here. This feels more like a 6.5 or 7-point game based on the advanced metrics, and Miami seems more likely to pull off an outright upset than Ohio State is to win by double digits.
Our Pick
We’d prefer to get +10 on this game, and it wouldn’t hurt to shop around or wait to see if that number surfaces. Otherwise, we’re riding with Miami +9.5 at the current price.
On the total, both teams play at an extremely slow pace (Miami ranks 129th in seconds per play, Ohio State dead last at 136th), both defenses are elite, and both programs have had ample time to prepare for this specific opponent. The under has been the right side in both teams’ most recent games, and we don’t expect that to change here.
Lean: Under 41
When two top-five defenses meet in a playoff game with extended preparation time and a combined average pace that resembles a chess match more than a track meet, points will be at a premium. Look for a tight, physical contest decided by a score or two at most.
Picks:
- Miami +9.5 ✓
- Lean Under 41