Ohio State Dominates the Spread Against Illinois

Saturday, October 11, 2025 | 12:00 PM ET | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL

The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes travel to face No. 17 Illinois this Saturday in what looks to be a one-sided affair. While the Fighting Illini have had success this year (other than a 63-10 pounding by Indiana), including their impressive 34-32 home win over USC, they face an entirely different beast when the Buckeyes roll into Champaign.

The Statistical Mismatch

Ohio State’s defensive dominance has been nothing short of remarkable, surrendering just 25 total points through five games – an average that would rank among the best nationally on a per-game basis. No opponent has reached double digits against this defense, and more impressively, the Buckeyes haven’t allowed a single first-half touchdown all season.

Ohio State holds a yards per rush attempt differential advantage of +1.7 to -1.4 and a yards per play advantage of +3 to -0.1 against Illinois. These fundamental edges tend to compound throughout sixty minutes of football, wearing down opponents and creating the late-game separation that covers spreads.

Illinois Running Game Woes

The Fighting Illini running attack has struggled mightily, averaging just 115 yards per game on the ground, ranking No. 103 nationally. While starting back Aidan Laughery appears likely to return after missing recent games, his presence alone won’t solve the offensive line issues that have plagued Illinois all season. Head coach Bret Bielema indicated both Laughery and Mac Resetich should be available, but against a defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, even a full complement of backs faces an uphill battle.

Sayin’s Surgical Precision

Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin continues his remarkable efficiency, completing 80.2 percent of his passes to rank first nationally, while sitting third in passing efficiency (196.99). His command of the offense has been exceptional, throwing 13 touchdowns without forcing mistakes. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 113th in passing yards allowed per game at 252.3, Sayin should have another field day dissecting the secondary.

The receiver duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate has combined for 59 receptions, 898 yards and 10 touchdowns, providing Sayin with elite weapons that Illinois simply cannot match up with defensively.

Historical Trends Support the Buckeyes

The betting trends heavily favor Ohio State in this matchup. The Buckeyes are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with Illinois. While Illinois has covered in nine of their last 10 games, they haven’t faced anything close to this caliber of opponent since their 63-10 demolition at the hands of Indiana.

Sharp Money Movement

Despite the large spread, 60% of bets are backing Illinois to cover the +14.5, suggesting recreational bettors see value in the home underdog. However, the line has held steady at most books, indicating sharp money respects Ohio State’s ability to win big on the road.

The Bottom Line

Our model projects a 31-10 final score in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ suffocating defense should limit Illinois to minimal scoring opportunities, while their balanced offense methodically builds a lead throughout the game.

Luke Altmyer has performed admirably for Illinois this season with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions, but he hasn’t faced a defense remotely close to this level. The Buckeyes rank in the top 20 nationally in virtually every relevant defensive category, and they’ve yet to be truly tested this season.

The Pick

Ohio State -14.5 looks like the right side here. The Buckeyes have the defense to completely shut down an Illinois offense that already struggles to establish the run, while their offensive efficiency should produce points consistently against a Fighting Illini defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game.

The total sitting at 49.5 also presents value on the Under, as the Under has hit in 8 of Illinois’ last 11 home games. With Ohio State’s defense unlikely to surrender more than 10-14 points and a potentially clock-draining approach once they build a comfortable lead, staying under the total seems probable.

Final Predictions:

• Spread: Ohio State -14.5 ✓
• Total: Under 49.5
• Final Score: Ohio State 31, Illinois 10