Oregon vs. Oklahoma State: Betting Preview & Prediction (Sept. 6, 2025)
Autzen Stadium will be rocking on Saturday, Sept. 6 (3:30 ET, CBS) when the No. 7 Oregon Ducks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This non‑conference matchup is a rematch of the 2008 Holiday Bowl and serves as a stiff early‑season test for both programs. Oddsmakers at BetOnline have opened Oregon as a 28‑point favorite with a total of 58.5 points.
Our model, which blends last season’s performance with 2025 results, forecasts Oregon 56, Oklahoma State 17. That score implies 73 total points — far above the 58.5‑point total — and would allow the Ducks to get within a touchdown of the over by themselves. Below is a breakdown of how each side matches up and why the over 58.5 is the recommended play.
Why Oregon Can Score in Bunches
Oregon’s offense looked unstoppable in its 59‑13 dismantling of Montana State. Redshirt‑sophomore quarterback Dante Moore was efficient in his first Oregon start, completing 18‑of‑23 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns. Pokes Report noted that the Ducks used 12 different rushers and 10 receivers while piling up more than 500 total yards; their run game averaged about six and a half yards per carry and their defense forced double‑digit tackles for loss and multiple sacks. The scoring started when Moore found tight end Kenyon Sadiq on a short pass that turned into a long touchdown, and he later hit transfer receivers Malik Benson and Gary Bryant Jr. for scores. Running back Noah Whittington paced the backfield with 68 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown, while freshman Jordon Davison added two fourth‑quarter touchdowns. Special teams also contributed — Jeremiah McClellan blocked a punt that Daylen Austin recovered for points.
Dan Lanning’s defense was equally impressive. They held the FCS power to barely 240 yards and fewer than 50 rushing yards, and Pokes Report noted that five of the top ten tacklers were front‑seven players in Lanning’s multi‑front, Alabama/Georgia‑influenced scheme. The Ducks have the personnel to generate stops without committing extra defenders to the box, giving them flexibility to play at a fast pace on offense. In other words, they can push the tempo without worrying about a shoot‑out.
Oklahoma State’s Uphill Battle
Oklahoma State opened its season with a 27‑7 win over UT Martin, but the victory came at a cost. Starting quarterback Hauss Hejny broke a bone in his left foot, underwent surgery and will miss several weeks. Hejny had been a dual‑threat — he rushed four times for 27 yards and a touchdown in the opener — so the injury removes a rushing element from the offense. Redshirt freshman Zane Flores, who saw limited action last year, stepped in and went 13‑of‑20 for 136 yards. Flores was a three‑star recruit with offers from Kansas, Missouri and other mid‑level programs and remains largely untested at this level. Oklahoma State’s coaches expected both quarterbacks to play, so the switch hasn’t altered the playbook significantly — receiver Gavin Freeman told reporters that everyone practiced with both quarterbacks.
The Cowboys also come in with questions at the skill positions. Rodney Fields Jr., who sat out the opener to rest a lower‑body injury, could return and provide a boost to the run game. Backup Kalib Hicks logged 21 carries for 56 yards against UT Martin but will need to be more efficient to take pressure off the rookie quarterback. Oklahoma State’s receiving corps features slot targets like Freeman and Sam Jackson V, who combined for seven catches for 60 yards in the opener. However, the Cowboys might be without emerging pass‑rusher Wendell Gregory, who was arrested on a misdemeanor warrant after the opener. Losing Gregory would weaken a defense that must already replace key contributors from last year’s 3‑9 team. Even with Gregory, Oklahoma State didn’t dominate UT Martin; the Cowboys failed to cover the 26.5‑point spread and the game stayed under its total.
Handicapping the Matchup
The betting market reflects Oregon’s perceived superiority. The Ducks are currently listed as roughly a four‑touchdown favorite and the total sits around 58.5. Oregon covered a similar number last week and its game sailed past the total, while Oklahoma State failed to cover and its game went under, despite playing an FCS opponent.
Our model projects Oregon 56, Oklahoma State 17, suggesting a 39‑point margin and 73 total points. Several factors support a high‑scoring contest:
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Explosive Oregon offense. With Moore distributing to a deep receiving corps (Benson, Bryant Jr., Sadiq) and Whittington leading a multi‑headed rushing attack, the Ducks have already proven they can exceed 50 points against respectable competition.
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Oklahoma State quarterback uncertainty. Flores is an unknown commodity. The Cowboys may simplify their offense with more screens and draws, which could lead to quick possessions and extra possessions for Oregon.
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Cowboys’ defensive attrition. The possible absence of linebacker/edge Wendell Gregory and the reliance on backups make it harder for OSU to slow Oregon’s tempo. Oregon’s offensive line includes NFL prospect Isaiah World, a 6‑foot‑8, 315‑pound tackle, giving Moore time to exploit mismatches.
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Autzen effect. Autzen Stadium is one of the loudest venues in college football. Asking a redshirt freshman quarterback to make his first road start there is a recipe for turnovers and short fields.
Best Bet: Over 58.5 Points
While Oregon is capable of covering the large spread, laying nearly four touchdowns leaves little margin for error. The safer angle is the over 58.5, which our model clears by more than two touchdowns. Oregon might flirt with the total on its own; the Ducks scored 59 last week and averaged over seven yards per play. Oklahoma State’s offense, though limited, has playmakers like Freeman and Fields Jr. who can break a big play and push the total over late. With an inexperienced quarterback and potential defensive absences, the Cowboys could also yield non‑offensive scores.
Prediction: Oregon 56, Oklahoma State 17
Betting lean: Over 58.5 points