Pittsburgh at West Virginia: 108th Backyard Brawl
Saturday, September 13, 2025 • 3:30 PM ET • Milan Puskar Stadium
ESPN • Pittsburgh -6.5 | Total: 57.5 (MyBookie)
The storied Backyard Brawl renews for the 108th time as Pittsburgh travels 75 miles down Interstate 79 to face West Virginia in a rivalry that has consistently defied expectations. With the Panthers favored by 6.5 points, early betting action suggests this could be another classic chapter in a series where six of the last eight meetings have been decided by seven points or less.
Line Movement Tells the Story
The betting market has spoken decisively in favor of Pittsburgh. After opening as small 2.5-point favorites in July, the line has steadily climbed to -6.5 at MyBookie. (Actually, as this is being written Pitt just took even more money pusing this line as high as -7.5). This represents significant movement in a rivalry known for its unpredictability, suggesting sharp money recognizes a talent gap between these programs in their current states.
The total has remained relatively stable around 57.5-58 points, indicating oddsmakers expect a moderately high-scoring affair despite both teams showing defensive capabilities through two weeks.
Pittsburgh’s Momentum vs. West Virginia’s Questions
The Panthers (2-0) enter this matchup riding high after dominating Central Michigan 45-17 in Week 2. Quarterback Eli Holstein has been revelatory through two games, completing 21 of 28 passes for 304 yards and four touchdowns against the Chippewas. Holstein leads the ACC in passing efficiency (199.99) and touchdowns (8), becoming the first Pitt quarterback since 2003 to throw four-plus touchdowns in each of the season’s first two games.
The supporting cast around Holstein provides multiple weapons. Desmond Reid has accumulated 288 all-purpose yards through two games, ranking fourth in the ACC, while Kenny Johnson leads the conference in kick return yards (162). The Panthers are averaging an explosive 53.0 points per game while ranking second in the ACC in total defense, allowing just 212.5 yards per contest.
West Virginia (1-1) presents a more concerning picture for bettors backing the Mountaineers. Their most recent outing—a 17-10 loss to Ohio—revealed troubling offensive limitations. The Mountaineers managed just 250 total yards on 56 plays, struggling particularly in the running game with only 72 yards on 28 attempts (2.6 yards per carry).
While WVU’s defense has shown promise, allowing just 10.0 points per game and ranking 24th nationally, their offense has been inconsistent. They’re averaging 27.5 points per game (75th in FBS) and have already accumulated 154 penalty yards in just two contests.
Historical Context Favors Chaos
The Backyard Brawl’s reputation for unpredictability is well-earned. Pitt’s shocking 13-9 upset as 28.5-point underdogs in 2007 remains one of the most infamous results in WVU history, costing the Mountaineers a shot at the national championship. Two years later, unranked West Virginia knocked off No. 8 Pittsburgh 19-16 on a last-second field goal.
More recently, the home team has dominated since the rivalry’s 2022 renewal. Pittsburgh won 38-31 at home in 2022, West Virginia responded with a 17-6 defensive struggle in Morgantown in 2023, and the Panthers claimed a thrilling 38-34 victory at Acrisure Stadium last season.
The Case for Pittsburgh -6.5
The spread appears justified based on several factors:
- Quarterback Advantage: Holstein’s early-season performance suggests he’s the superior signal-caller in this matchup. His accuracy and decision-making have been impressive against quality opposition.
- Offensive Explosiveness: Pittsburgh’s 53.0 points per game average reflects genuine big-play capability, something West Virginia has struggled to generate consistently.
- Momentum Factor: The Panthers enter with confidence after consecutive dominant performances, while WVU is dealing with questions following the Ohio loss.
- Road Performance History: Despite the rivalry’s unpredictable nature, Pittsburgh has shown they can win in hostile environments.
The Total: Betting the Under 57.5
While Pittsburgh’s offensive capabilities suggest scoring potential, several factors point toward a lower-scoring affair:
- West Virginia’s Offensive Struggles: The Mountaineers’ inability to move the ball consistently against Ohio raises questions about their ability to keep pace with Pittsburgh’s explosive offense.
- Defensive Strength: Both teams have shown defensive capabilities—WVU allows 10.0 points per game while Pitt surrenders just 13.0.
- Rivalry History: Recent meetings have featured defensive struggles, with totals frequently falling short of expectations.
- Weather and Environment: September games in Morgantown can feature unpredictable conditions that favor defensive play.
Best Bets and Final Analysis
Recommended Play: Pittsburgh -7
The line movement suggests professional bettors have identified value in laying the points with Pittsburgh. While the Backyard Brawl’s chaotic history demands respect, the current talent disparity appears significant enough to overcome typical rivalry dynamics.
Holstein’s emergence as a legitimate ACC quarterback, combined with Pittsburgh’s balanced offensive attack and defensive improvement, creates a formula for covering a touchdown spread against a West Virginia team still searching for offensive identity.
Secondary Play: Under 57.5
The total represents solid value for under bettors. West Virginia’s offensive limitations, combined with the rivalry’s tendency toward defensive slugfests in Morgantown, suggest a final score in the 24-17 or 28-21 range rather than the high-scoring affair the total implies.
Final Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, West Virginia 20
The Panthers’ superior quarterback play and offensive weapons prove decisive in a game that stays within the historical pattern of close Backyard Brawl contests. While WVU keeps it respectable behind their defense and home crowd, Pittsburgh’s consistency and explosive potential ultimately prevail.
In a rivalry defined by the unexpected, sometimes the chalk represents the best value—and that appears to be the case with Pittsburgh in this 108th edition of the Backyard Brawl.