The 2025 college football season begins with a Week 1 matchup as the Stanford Cardinal visit the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Stanford is favored by -2.5 with a total of 49 at betonline.
2024 Recap and Key Metrics
In 2024, the Stanford offense averaged 14.8 yards per point—solid efficiency—while their defense struggled at 11.9 yards per point, indicating opponents scored with ease. The Hawaii offense was less efficient at 17.9 offensive yards per point and a middling 14 defensive yards per point. Our original prediction using data from 2024 had Stanford winning 29-20, reflecting their offensive edge.
Returning Production: Stanford’s Defensive Hope
Stanford returns 67% of its 2024 production (13th nationally), with 59% on offense and a strong 76% on defense. While their offense may hold steady, the high defensive return offers a chance to improve a porous unit. Hawaii brings back 58% overall (61st), split evenly at 58% on both sides. This moderate continuity suggests they’ll resemble their 2024 selves unless new talent steps up.
Transfer Portal Impact: Stanford Gains Ground
Stanford added 12 transfers, earning a 29.36-point rating (54th), with a 4-star recruit among them. This modest haul could enhance their offense and shore up their shaky defense. Hawaii’s 9 transfers netted just 9.75 points (126th)—one of the FBS’s weakest classes—offering little hope for a significant boost.
Prediction: Stanford 31, Hawaii 18
Factoring in these changes, Stanford’s offense should nudge up to 30-31 points, thanks to a slightly more efficient 14.5 yards per point. Their defense, despite returning talent and transfers, remains a weak spot but might improve to 12.5-13 yards per point, allowing Hawaii 22-24 points. However, Hawaii’s offense, hampered by regression to 18.5 yards per point, drops to 17-18 points, while their defense concedes 30-31. We’re calling it Stanford 31, Hawaii 18—a road win driven by offensive consistency and a slightly less vulnerable defense.
Stanford -2.5