Texas Tech Set to Dominate Big 12 Title Game Rematch
Saturday, December 6, 2025 | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | 11:00 AM CST | ABC
The Rematch Nobody Saw Coming
When Texas Tech and BYU meet for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, it marks just the fourth time these programs have faced each other in their histories – and remarkably, the second time this season. No opponent has ever played Texas Tech twice in the same year across the Red Raiders’ 101-year football history, making this rematch a historic first.
The previous meeting told a clear story: Texas Tech thoroughly controlled BYU in a 29-7 win that ended the Cougars’ 10-game winning streak. The Red Raiders held BYU to a season-low 255 total yards while forcing four turnovers in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.
Statistical Dominance Points to Red Raiders
The numbers paint a clear picture of Texas Tech’s superiority heading into Saturday’s championship game. The Red Raiders boast a +2.0 advantage in yards per rush attempt differential compared to BYU’s +0.5, demonstrating their ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. More impressively, Texas Tech holds a +2.1 edge in yards per play differential against BYU’s +0.7, showcasing their explosive offensive capabilities and stifling defense.
When examining efficiency metrics, Texas Tech’s advantages become even more pronounced. The Red Raiders generate points more efficiently on offense, needing just 11.5 yards per point compared to BYU’s 12.9. Defensively, the gap widens further – Texas Tech forces opponents to grind out 22.9 yards per point while BYU allows scores at 18 yards per point.
Common opponent analysis reinforces this narrative. Both teams faced UCF, West Virginia, and Utah during Big 12 play. In every single matchup against these shared foes, Texas Tech posted superior point differentials – scoring more points while allowing fewer than the Cougars managed against the same competition.
Red Raiders Rolling Into Arlington
Texas Tech enters this game as one of the most dominant teams in recent college football memory. Their 11 wins by at least 20 points this season places them among just six teams in the past century to accomplish such a feat in the regular season. The Red Raiders currently lead the nation with an average margin of 35.2 points per game, establishing themselves as the only FBS team ranking in the top five for both scoring offense and scoring defense while also being among the leaders in takeaways.
Quarterback Behren Morton has been exceptional when healthy, posting a perfect 10-0 record as a starter this season. The senior signal-caller threw for 216 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with BYU, operating behind an offensive line that consistently created running lanes for Cameron Dickey’s 121-yard rushing performance.
Meanwhile, BYU arrives in Arlington trying to shake off inconsistent performances that have plagued them recently. True freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier struggled mightily in the first meeting, completing just 23 of 38 passes for 188 yards with three turnovers. The Cougars, who entered that November 8 matchup ranked third nationally in turnover margin completely unraveled with four giveaways that sealed their fate.
The Betting Angle: Look Under
MyBookie has installed Texas Tech as 12.5-point favorites with a total of 50 points. Our proprietary models suggest both teams will struggle to reach the end zone consistently, projecting a final score of 24-14 in Texas Tech’s favor.
While the side presents some value for BYU backers getting nearly two touchdowns, the strongest play appears to be the total. Our models unanimously project between 39 and 41 total points – significantly below the posted number of 50. The first meeting produced just 36 combined points, and championship games historically trend toward lower-scoring affairs as defenses tighten and coaches lean conservative.
Texas Tech’s defense has been exceptional all season, ranking third nationally by allowing just 11.3 points per game. They’ve held three different conference opponents to single-digit point totals this year, matching a school record. With linebacker Jacob Rodriguez leading the nation with seven forced fumbles and the Red Raiders defense generating 27 takeaways (tied for second nationally), BYU’s offensive struggles from the first meeting could easily resurface.
Championship Stakes and Playoff Implications
The winner secures an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff, while the loser’s fate rests with the selection committee. FPI gives Texas Tech a 98.2% chance of making the playoff regardless of Saturday’s outcome, while BYU sits at just 35.3% overall – with only a 1.9% chance as an at-large selection if they lose.
For BYU, this essentially becomes a must-win scenario. The Cougars defied preseason projections that had them finishing eighth or ninth in conference play, but their impressive 11-1 record likely won’t be enough without the automatic bid that comes with a conference championship.
The Pick
Texas Tech has established itself as the class of the Big 12, and nothing suggests Saturday’s rematch will play out differently than their dominant first meeting. The Red Raiders possess advantages in every meaningful statistical category, from explosive plays (85 plays of 20+ yards, leading the FBS) to defensive efficiency.
While our model suggests BYU could keep this within the spread at 24-14, the stronger play lies with the total. Championship games in neutral venues typically feature conservative game plans and field position battles. Add in Texas Tech’s elite defense and BYU’s turnover issues from the first meeting, and scoring opportunities should be at a premium.
Official Selections:
SIDE: No Play
TOTAL: Under 50 (-110)