Tulane at Ole Miss: College Football Playoff First Round
Saturday, December 20, 2025 – 3:30 PM EST
The College Football Playoff begins Saturday in Oxford with the second game of the day as Tulane travels to face Ole Miss at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. This first-round matchup features the 11th-seeded Green Wave taking on the 6th-seeded Rebels in what will be a rematch of their September showdown. Ole Miss enters as 17-point favorites at MyBookie with the total set at 56.5.
Background and Context
Tulane’s presence in the playoff field has sparked considerable debate among college football fans and analysts. The Green Wave won the American Athletic Conference championship to punch their ticket, finishing the regular season at 11-2. However, the quality of those losses raises questions. Beyond the lopsided defeat to Ole Miss, Tulane also fell to UTSA 48-26, a result that doesn’t inspire confidence against elite competition. Some have suggested that Group of Five qualifiers should perhaps face each other in a play-in scenario before advancing to face power conference opponents, similar to the structure used in NCAA basketball. Whether that’s fair or not, Tulane has earned their spot by winning their conference and now must prove they belong on this stage.
For Ole Miss, this game arrives amid significant upheaval. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s recent departure to LSU has created uncertainty around the program. Kiffin will not be on the sideline for this playoff game, leaving interim coaching duties to the staff. The question becomes: how much will this distraction affect a talented Rebels team? Has the coaching change been a disruption, or has it brought the team closer together with something to prove? The answer will likely reveal itself in how Ole Miss handles an opponent they thoroughly dominated just three months ago.
First Meeting Breakdown
When these teams met September 20 in Oxford, it wasn’t close. Ole Miss rolled to a 49-10 win, accumulating 548 total yards while limiting Tulane to just 282. The Rebels posted 307 passing yards and 241 rushing yards, averaging 7.9 yards per play. Their efficiency on third down (7-of-11) and their ability to control the game from start to finish demonstrated the gap between these programs. Tulane managed only 104 passing yards in that game, with quarterback Jake Retzlaff struggling before being replaced.
However, there was one area where Tulane found success: the ground game. The Green Wave rushed for 178 yards on 39 carries, averaging a solid 4.5 yards per attempt against an Ole Miss defense that has been vulnerable against the run all season. This becomes a crucial factor when evaluating Saturday’s rematch.
Statistical Analysis and Key Metrics
Ole Miss finished the regular season 11-1 with their only loss coming by a single score to Georgia. They’ve been dominant at home, posting a perfect 8-0 record at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels rank third nationally in total offense at 498 yards per game and average 37.3 points per contest. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been excellent, throwing for 3,016 yards and 18 touchdowns. Running back Kewan Lacy provides balance with 1,279 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground.
The Rebels’ defensive numbers are less impressive, particularly against the run. They’ve allowed 150.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the SEC. This vulnerability becomes even more significant when examining the yards per rush attempt differential. Ole Miss sits at exactly 0.0 in this metric, while Tulane boasts a +1.1 advantage. Historically, teams with the better yards per rush attempt differential often cover as underdogs, as controlling the ground game can limit possessions and keep games closer than expected.
Tulane’s defense deserves credit for their performance against high-powered offenses. In their most recent game, they held North Texas – the nation’s highest-scoring team – to just 21 points. The Green Wave defense has generated 34 sacks this season and picked off 15 passes. If they can generate pressure on Chambliss and force him into mistakes, they have a path to staying competitive.
Since being benched in that first Ole Miss game, Retzlaff has responded well. He’s thrown for at least 231 yards in seven of his last nine starts, showing significant improvement as the season progressed. His ability to manage the game and avoid turnovers will be critical if Tulane hopes to cover this number.
The Lane Kiffin Factor
The elephant in the room is Kiffin’s absence. When a head coach leaves for another job before a bowl or playoff game, the conventional wisdom suggests it creates a distraction and potentially hurts the team’s focus. Players may feel betrayed, practice intensity might wane, and the interim staff may struggle to maintain the same level of preparation and game management.
However, there’s another side to this coin. Sometimes these situations galvanize a team. Players may rally together with a “us against the world” mentality. They may play with extra motivation to prove something without their departed coach. They may want to send a message that the program’s success wasn’t solely about one individual. If Ole Miss takes the field Saturday with that mindset, they could make an emphatic statement by dominating an opponent many feel didn’t deserve to be in the playoff field.
Given the talent advantage and the home field, we believe the latter scenario is more likely. This figures to be a statement game for Ole Miss. After dealing with the drama and questions surrounding their coaching situation, the Rebels have an opportunity to take out their frustrations on an overmatched opponent.
Game Projection and Betting Analysis
Our model projects Ole Miss to win 37-17, which would be comfortable but not quite as dominant as their first meeting – this game is in Oxford where the Rebels are unbeaten – but also accounts for potential improvements Tulane has made since September.
Tulane’s best path to covering involves controlling the clock with their rushing attack. If they can run for 150+ yards and maintain drives, they limit Ole Miss’s possessions and keep the game from getting out of hand. The Green Wave has shown they can move the ball on the ground against this Ole Miss defense. Maintaining that success becomes paramount to their chances.
However, we expect Ole Miss to be locked in and motivated. This is not a team that needs extra motivation after missing out on the SEC Championship Game by the slimmest of margins. They finished behind Georgia and Alabama in the conference standings despite having the talent to compete with anyone. Now they get a chance to show the nation what they’re capable of in the playoff format.
Chambliss and the Rebels’ passing attack should have success against a Tulane secondary that will be the weakest unit they’ve faced since their conference schedule concluded. The Rebels’ home field advantage, combined with their superior talent level and motivation to prove themselves in Kiffin’s absence, points toward a comfortable win.
The Pick: Ole Miss -17
We’re backing the Rebels to cover the spread. While 17 points is a significant number, Ole Miss covered it once already against this same opponent. Tulane may give them a better game than the first meeting – hence our 37-17 projection rather than another 49-10 blowout – but the Rebels should still win by three touchdowns. The talent gap is too significant, and we believe the Kiffin situation has brought this team together rather than torn it apart.
The Total: Over 56.5
For the total, we’re leaning over 56.5. While our model suggests 54 total points, we see several factors pointing to more scoring than that conservative projection. Ole Miss has the firepower to score in the 40s against this defense, particularly at home where they’ve been explosive all season. If they reach the low 40s as we expect, Tulane only needs to reach the mid-teens for this total to clear. Given that the Green Wave have shown they can move the ball on the ground against this defense, and given that they scored 378 points during the regular season (nearly 30 per game), we believe they’ll contribute enough offense to push this game over the number.
Final Thoughts
This is not the marquee matchup fans hoped for in the playoff’s opening round, but it represents an opportunity for Ole Miss to make a statement. The Rebels have playoff aspirations that extend beyond this first-round game. A dominant performance here sets the stage for a quarterfinal rematch with Georgia, where they can avenge their only loss of the season.
For Tulane, this represents a chance to prove the doubters wrong and show they belong in this field. If their rushing attack can control the game tempo and their defense can generate a few turnovers, they have an outside chance at the upset. More realistically, they’re playing to earn respect and show they can compete with an SEC power.
Saturday’s game kicks off at 3:30 PM EST on TNT. Ole Miss should advance, and they should do so convincingly.