USC at Purdue Football Preview & Betting Analysis
Saturday, September 13, 2025 | 3:30 PM ET | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN | CBS
Spread: USC -21 | Total: 58
The Storylines
The USC Trojans make their first trip to West Lafayette since 1976 as massive 21-point road favorites over the Purdue Boilermakers in what marks the Big Ten opener for both teams. USC enters this contest as one of college football’s most explosive offensive units, averaging a staggering 66 points per game through their first two contests against Missouri State (73-13) and Georgia Southern (59-20).
This matchup features a compelling subplot as Purdue head coach Barry Odom faces his former quarterback, Jayden Maiava. The two were together at UNLV in 2023, where Maiava led the Rebels to nine wins and their first Mountain West Championship Game appearance under Odom’s guidance.
USC Analysis: Offensive Juggernaut
The Trojans have been nothing short of spectacular on offense through two games. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has emerged as a legitimate Big Ten contender, leading the conference in total offense (360.5 ypg) and passing (353.5 ypg). In USC’s 59-20 rout of Georgia Southern, Maiava threw for 412 yards and four touchdowns on just 16 completions, showcasing both efficiency and explosive play capability.
The USC ground game has been equally impressive, with Waymond Jordan providing a dynamic rushing threat that complements Maiava’s dual-threat ability. The Trojans’ receiving corps, led by players like Ja’Kobi Lane, has shown the ability to create big plays consistently.
Key USC Strengths:
- Elite offensive efficiency and explosiveness
- Maiava’s familiarity with opposing defensive coordinator concepts
- Strong red zone offense facing a vulnerable Purdue red zone defense
- Experience in road environments
Purdue Analysis: Home Underdogs
The Boilermakers enter 2-0 under first-year head coach Barry Odom, with victories over Ball State (31-0) and Southern Illinois (34-17). While these wins have been solid, the level of competition pales in comparison to what USC brings to West Lafayette.
Quarterback Ryan Browne has shown steady improvement, throwing for 170 yards and two touchdowns against Southern Illinois while adding 50 rushing yards. Running back Deion Mockobee has been the offensive catalyst, carrying the ball 32 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the most recent outing.
Purdue’s Challenges:
- Defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in the red zone (allowing conversions at 80% rate)
- Lack of explosive offensive plays compared to USC’s firepower
- Significant step up in competition level
Historical Context
USC holds a 3-1 advantage in the all-time series, with the Trojans winning the most recent meeting 27-17 in the 1998 season opener at the LA Coliseum. Purdue’s lone series victory came in the legendary 1966 Rose Bowl, where the Boilermakers upset USC 14-13. This marks USC’s first trip to Ross-Ade Stadium since their 31-13 victory in 1976.
Betting Analysis
The Spread: USC -21
This is a substantial road spread, but the metrics support USC’s dominance. The Trojans rank with the best offensive rating (41.3) in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, while Purdue sits at No. 96 in ESPN’s FPI – the lowest among all Power Four teams.
Factors favoring USC covering:
- Overwhelming offensive superiority (66 ppg vs. Purdue’s defensive struggles)
- Maiava’s familiarity with Odom’s defensive philosophies from their UNLV days
- USC’s red zone efficiency against Purdue’s porous red zone defense
- Motivation to make a statement in Big Ten play
Factors favoring Purdue:
- Home field advantage in conference opener
- Potential for early season letdown from USC
- Odom’s defensive acumen and motivation against his former player
The Total: 58
This number feels conservative given USC’s offensive explosion. The Trojans have scored 132 points in two games, while Purdue has managed 65 points against significantly weaker opposition.
Over factors:
- USC’s 66 ppg average suggests they alone could approach this total
- Purdue’s red zone defensive struggles (91st in FBS)
- Fast-paced offensive systems from both teams
- Potential for garbage time scoring
Under factors:
- Purdue’s methodical offensive approach may limit possessions
- Odom’s defensive adjustments could slow USC
- Weather/field conditions at Ross-Ade
Expert Picks
Against the Spread: USC -21 Despite the large number, USC’s offensive firepower and Purdue’s defensive vulnerabilities create a substantial talent gap. Maiava’s familiarity with Odom’s defensive concepts provides an additional edge. The Trojans have the depth and explosive play ability to pull away in the second half.
Total: OVER 58 USC’s offensive efficiency suggests they’ll score in the 40s, and if Purdue can manage even 17-21 points at home, this total should be surpassed comfortably. The red zone matchup heavily favors the over.
Final Score Prediction: USC 45, Purdue 17