Wisconsin at Michigan – College Football Betting Preview (10/4/25)
Saturday in Ann Arbor features a Big Ten matchup as Wisconsin travels to face Michigan. MyBookie currently lists Michigan as a 17-point favorite with a total of 43. Both teams have been tested early, and this matchup will determine if Wisconsin can keep pace against one of the nation’s elite.
Recent Form and Schedule Strength
Both programs have taken similar paths through the first month. Each team rolled past two lighter opponents but was challenged by stiffer competition. Michigan survived a tight contest against Nebraska, winning by just three points, and fell to Oklahoma. Wisconsin, meanwhile, stumbled against both Maryland and Alabama, showing difficulty against top-tier competition.
Key Metrics
Michigan’s dominance starts up front. They rank No. 1 nationally in yards per rush differential at +4.5, a number that highlights both offensive line efficiency and defensive stoutness against the run. Wisconsin isn’t on the same level but still respectable, ranking 26th in the nation at +1. This suggests the Badgers can at least compete in the trenches, which is crucial if they hope to stay within the number.
Defensively, Michigan has allowed limited scoring in its wins, but opponents with physical ground games have managed to wear them down. Wisconsin has been inconsistent offensively, but their run-first style could be enough to shorten the game and prevent it from getting out of hand.
Betting Outlook
Oddsmakers are expecting Michigan to control the tempo, but the spread sits in a tricky zone. Our model projects a result in the 15- to 17-point range, with about 40 total points scored. That aligns almost exactly with the posted line and total, making this a numbers-driven contest rather than one with clear mismatches.
Trends show Wisconsin has covered in several recent meetings with Michigan, particularly when catching double digits. Michigan, on the other hand, has struggled at times to pull away from physical Big Ten opponents even when heavily favored.
Prediction and Pick
It’s a tall task for Wisconsin to go into Ann Arbor and walk away with a win, but they don’t need that to cash a ticket. With both teams leaning on the run and defenses likely dictating much of the pace, we see this game staying close enough for the Badgers to remain within the big spread.
Pick: Wisconsin +17
Expect Michigan to grind out another conference win, but Wisconsin should hang around long enough to cover in a lower-scoring matchup.