Miami vs Indiana CFP National Championship Game Preview
Monday, January 19, 2026 | 7:50 PM EST | Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Current Line: Indiana -7.5 to -8 | Total: 47.5
The college football national championship game kicks off tonight at 7:50 PM EST, and to be honest, it’s a bit refreshing that the game doesn’t involve Ohio State, Alabama, or Georgia!
Speaking to you strictly as a college football fan, we’d like to see the Hoosiers win tonight. It’s a great story. Indiana entered the season as one of the most historically downtrodden programs in major college football, and now they sit one game away from becoming the first 16-0 national champion since 1894 Yale. The numbers suggest that Indiana will do just that – however, the numbers also suggest they may not win by enough to cover the touchdown-plus number.
Breaking Down the Numbers
The yards per point numbers show Miami at 13 on offense and 20.3 on defense. Those are great numbers, but Indiana is even better at 11 on offense and 23.1 on defense. The yards per rush attempt differential edge goes to Indiana with a fantastic number of +2.2 compared to Miami’s +1.1. The yards per play differential numbers also favor Indiana at +2.0 versus +1.3.
Our model shows an across-the-board sweep for Indiana, and this is where it gets a little interesting:
- Full Season Data: Indiana 19, Miami 14
- Last 7 Games: Indiana 16, Miami 13
- Last 4 Games: Indiana 18, Miami 10
The ESPN computer models align with this assessment, projecting Indiana as the winner in approximately 68% of simulations. The SP+ model projects Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3 – suggesting a clear Hoosier edge.
What Each Team Brings to the Table
Indiana (15-0) has been nothing short of dominant. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza captured the Heisman Trophy and has been absolutely surgical in the playoffs. The Hoosiers crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl and dismantled Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl semifinal. Their defense ranks among the nation’s elite, and they’ve shown no obvious weaknesses throughout this remarkable run. Head coach Curt Cignetti has orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnarounds in college football history in just his second season.
Miami (13-2) has taken the hard road to get here. The Hurricanes knocked off Texas A&M on the road in windy conditions, eliminated defending champion Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl, and gutted out a 31-27 thriller against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal. Quarterback Carson Beck delivered when it mattered most, directing a last-minute scoring drive to beat the Rebels. The defense has been stout all postseason, led by a fearsome pass rush that could cause problems for any offense.
Other Considerations
There’s other things to consider here, specifically how each team handles the lead-up to a game of this magnitude. The extra time layoff can have positive or negative impacts. All of the media attention focused on the game makes it feel like a Super Bowl. Some teams simply don’t handle it well – we’ve seen that with NFL teams in the Super Bowl. But that’s also impossible to predict.
If we had to pick a team with the higher likelihood of blowing the other out, we’d say that’s Indiana. Again, we think they are the better team from top to bottom, and we think they’ll win this game. Let’s be honest – they destroyed Alabama and Oregon in their two most recent outings.
Miami does have the advantage of playing in their home stadium, though ticket distribution will likely be fairly even given how well Indiana fans traveled to the Peach Bowl. The Hurricanes have embraced the underdog role throughout the playoffs, and their physical identity up front has served them well. Still, matching Indiana’s balance and efficiency for a full 60 minutes will be a tall order.
The Way We See it
We are not going to make an official selection on this game. We’ll leave you with this, however: the numbers suggest Miami covers this number, and the game goes UNDER the total of 47.5. In fact, our model feels pretty strongly about both.
Both teams operate at a slow tempo and prioritize controlling the clock. Possession counts have been low throughout the playoffs for each squad, and neither is built around explosive, big-play offense. That recipe points toward a lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair.
Our gut says Indiana shows its dominance and pulls away in the 2nd half, remains unbeaten, and goes down as one of the most dominant teams in recent memory.
Enjoy the game, and we’ll see you next year for more college football predictions!