Miami vs Ole Miss Predictions and Picks – CFP Semifinal

Game Info: Thursday, January 8, 2026 | 7:30 PM ET | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ | ESPN

Current Line at MyBookie: Miami -3.5 | Total: 52

We’re down to the final four in college football, and Thursday’s Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels offers one of the more fascinating semifinal showdowns in recent memory. In years past, we could almost always look at a big matchup between an ACC team and the SEC and assume the SEC squad would be the better team with the much more difficult schedule. That’s no longer the case. NIL has evened the playing field, and this game illustrates that reality. Miami has actually faced a tougher schedule this season by approximately three points per game in opponent strength.

Both programs have faced a mix of quality and lesser opponents with comparable results. What separates them is how they arrived at this stage. Miami took the harder path through the bracket, knocking off Texas A&M before stunning defending national champion Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Hurricanes controlled that game wire-to-wire against the Buckeyes, proving their worth as legitimate contenders. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened with a comfortable first-round matchup against Tulane before pulling off an upset of Georgia to advance to the semis.

Key Metrics Favor Miami

Two statistics jump out when analyzing this matchup, and both favor the Hurricanes.

Starting with yards per point numbers on offense, there isn’t much separation. Miami sits at 12.9 while Ole Miss comes in at 13.3. But if you subscribe to the belief that defense wins championships, and we do, Miami holds a significant advantage. The Hurricanes post a defensive yards per point number of 21.1, which is the 2nd best among the four remaining playoff teams. Ole Miss? Their defensive mark of 16.4 is the worst of the final four.

Complementing that defense is Miami’s superior ground game. The Hurricanes own a yards per rush attempt differential of +1.3, while Ole Miss sits at just +0.1. Establishing and controlling the line of scrimmage figures to be critical for Miami in this contest. The Rebels prefer to attack through the air, but they’ll face a Miami pass defense that ranks fourth nationally.

Miami’s Pass Rush Could Be the Difference

Miami’s defensive front has been absolutely dominant in the playoffs. The Hurricanes have racked up 12 sacks in their two postseason games, with the combination of defensive ends Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain accounting for 7.5 of those takedowns. That kind of pressure disrupts everything an offense wants to accomplish.

Ole Miss does boast one of the better offensive lines in the country when it comes to protection, ranking fourth nationally with a pressure rate allowed of just 23.2 percent. But the Rebels haven’t faced a pass rush as relentless as what Miami brings. Trinidad Chambliss has been outstanding for Ole Miss in the playoffs, but sustaining that level of play against this defensive front will be a considerable challenge.

Coaching Situation Bears Watching

One factor working against Ole Miss is the transition on the sideline. Lane Kiffin departed to take the LSU job, leaving Pete Golding to guide the Rebels through the remainder of the playoff. To their credit, Ole Miss hasn’t missed a beat since the change, and the program showed resilience in taking down Georgia. Still, facing a well-coached Miami team in a semifinal environment represents a different test.

Betting Trends

Recent history offers some useful context here:

• Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
• The Under is 4-1 in Miami’s last five outings
• Miami is 9-5 ATS on the season and 6-0 against ranked opponents
• Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against ACC opponents
• Ole Miss is 9-5 ATS this season with a 4-1 mark versus ranked teams
• The Rebels are 7-7 on the total this year

Model Projections

Our model favors Miami regardless of what time frame parameters we use. When we run season-to-date numbers, the model projects a 24-16 Miami win. Using data from only the last seven games, the model says 21-14 Miami. And when we examine just the last four games, the projection shows 21-9 Miami. That’s an across-the-board sweep for the Hurricanes.

Conclusion and Picks

The betting market has this spread hovering around -3 to -3.5 depending on where you shop. This should be a hard-fought game, but we have to side with the Hurricanes. Miami’s defensive superiority, particularly their pass rush and their edge in yards per point allowed, makes them the right side here.

We also like the Under. Miami’s blueprint of defensive pressure combined with a ball-control rushing attack sets up for a lower-scoring affair. The Hurricanes have hit the Under in three consecutive games, and we expect them to slow this one down as well.

Our Picks:

• Miami -3 ✓
• Under 52 ✓