Packers Primed to Bounce Back in Dallas: Sunday Night Football Preview

Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Sunday, September 28, 2025 | 8:20 PM EDT
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Spread: Packers -6.5 | Total: 47.5 (MyBookie)

Our Model’s Prediction: Packers 31, Cowboys 14

After a disappointing 13-10 road loss to Cleveland in Week 3, the Green Bay Packers head to Dallas as 6.5-point favorites against a struggling Cowboys team that has shown significant weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Our model projects a convincing 31-14 win for the Packers, and the underlying trends strongly support backing Green Bay in this primetime showdown.

Packers Defense Creating Favorable Matchup

Green Bay enters this contest with the NFL’s top-ranked defense, allowing just 14.7 points per game. Their defensive unit has been exceptional, permitting only 232.3 total yards per contest while recording 10 sacks through three games.

The addition of pass rusher Micah Parsons in a preseason trade has transformed this defense, with the unit currently ranking first in defensive DVOA. Rashan Gary leads the NFL with 4.5 sacks, creating a formidable pass rush that should exploit Dallas’s struggling offensive line, which ranks 31st in pass block PFF grade.

This defensive strength directly contrasts with Dallas’s offensive struggles. While the Cowboys average 24.7 points per game, they face a Green Bay defense that has allowed opponents to convert just 65.0% of their passes and has surrendered only three passing touchdowns all season.

Cowboys’ Defensive Vulnerabilities Expose Opportunity

The Cowboys present one of the NFL’s worst defensive units, ranking 31st in defensive EPA per play and 32nd in defensive DVOA. Their pass defense has been particularly poor, ranking 32nd in passing yards allowed at 288.0 yards per game. This creates an excellent setup for Jordan Love and the Packers’ passing attack.

Love has thrown for 663 yards with five touchdowns against just one interception while completing 67.9% of his passes. The quarterback has demonstrated consistency in road games, recording 224+ passing yards in each of his last four games as a road favorite against NFC opponents.

The Cowboys’ injury concerns compound their defensive issues. Key defenders Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are questionable, while their lack of pass rush (bottom half in pass rush win rate) gives Love additional time to find his targets.

Historical Trends Favor the Packers

Green Bay owns a dominant recent record against Dallas, winning 10 of their last 11 meetings and covering the spread in each of their last five games against the Cowboys. The Packers have been particularly effective in Dallas, winning and covering their last five visits to AT&T Stadium.

Additionally, Green Bay has covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Cowboys, while Dallas has failed to cover in each of their last four games against NFC North opponents.

Key Statistical Advantages

Green Bay’s Strengths:

• Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last 10 games against NFC opponents
• Jacobs has recorded 81+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances against NFC East opponents
• Love has recorded 246+ passing yards in five of the Packers’ last six September games against NFC opponents
• The Packers have scored first in each of their last nine games as favorites against NFC East opponents

Dallas’s Concerns:

• The Cowboys have lost four of their last five games
• Dallas has allowed 30.7 points per game this season, ranking 27th in the NFL
• Their 288.0 passing yards allowed per game ranks last in the league
• The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against NFC North teams

Injury Impact and Key Factors

CeeDee Lamb’s status remains a significant concern for Dallas, as he’s listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. Without their top receiver, the Cowboys’ offensive capabilities become severely limited, allowing Green Bay to focus their coverage on George Pickens and other secondary targets.

For Green Bay, the return from their Week 3 loss should provide motivation. The offense managed just 10 points against Cleveland, making positive regression likely against a Cowboys defense that has struggled consistently.

Betting Analysis

The 6.5-point spread appears reasonable given the talent disparity between these teams. Green Bay’s defense ranks first in points allowed while Dallas ranks 27th, creating a significant gap in defensive capability.

The Cowboys’ 1-2 ATS record this season and their struggles covering against NFC North opponents support taking the Packers to cover. Green Bay’s historical dominance in this matchup, combined with Dallas’s defensive deficiencies, creates value on the road favorite.

For the total, both teams have combined for a 5-1 record to the under this season. Green Bay’s elite defense should limit Dallas’s scoring opportunities, while the Cowboys’ improved defensive effort at home could keep this game lower-scoring than expected.

Final Prediction

The Packers represent the superior team in nearly every meaningful category. Their top-ranked defense should neutralize Dallas’s offense, while their balanced offensive attack can exploit the Cowboys’ defensive weaknesses.

Green Bay bounces back from their disappointing loss to Cleveland with a statement win in primetime. The combination of defensive dominance, historical trends, and Dallas’s injury concerns makes the Packers an excellent play both straight up and against the spread.

Best Bet: Packers -6.5