Patriots at Broncos AFC Championship Betting Preview
Game: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday, January 25th, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
TV: CBS
Current Line at MyBookie: Patriots -4, Total 43
The Nix Injury Changes Everything
Let’s address the elephant in the room. The Broncos received devastating news following their overtime win against the Bills last week. Bo Nix, Denver’s franchise quarterback who helped lead this team to a 15-3 record, is done for the year with a broken ankle. In his place steps Jarrett Stidham, a backup who hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular-season game since 2023.
That’s a tall task for anyone. This Denver team isn’t here because of Nix alone, of course. They’re here primarily because of their defense. Consider this: of all the Broncos wins this season, only three of them weren’t decided by one score. This defense has kept them in every single game. But will that be enough this week with a quarterback who has essentially been riding the bench for two years?
Two Elite Defenses Meet
Make no mistake, both of these teams are built on defensive foundations. Denver finished the regular season ranked first in yards per play allowed, second in total defense, and third in scoring defense. They also racked up a franchise-record 68 sacks with 17 different players recording at least half a sack. That pass rush is ferocious and can wreck any game plan.
But the Patriots defense is no slouch either. Mike Vrabel’s unit gave up the fourth-fewest points during the regular season. New England made back-to-back defensive statements in the first two playoff rounds, and they appear to be peaking at the right time. With key players returning from injury, this Patriots defense could pose major problems for Stidham’s rust-laden arm.
The Numbers We Like
These teams are remarkably close in several key metrics we track, including yards per play differential. However, when we look at the last seven games of yards per point numbers, the Patriots hold an edge. Both teams carry identical 13.7 offensive yards per point figures, but defensively, Denver sits at 15.5 while New England boasts an 18.0 number.
Our model’s projections assume Bo Nix is playing, so account for that accordingly. Using full-season data, the model projects a 22-20 Denver win. Using the last seven games of data, it shifts to 26-20 Patriots. And using only the last four games, it’s 15-13 Patriots.
Line Movement Tells a Story
At one point this week, New England was favored by 6. The line has since dropped to -4, and you can even find -3.5 at certain books. Meanwhile, the total has climbed from an opener of 40 up to the current 43.
The market has adjusted for Nix’s absence, but has it adjusted enough? Without their starting quarterback, the Broncos are now underdogs at home, a scenario that historically hasn’t treated them poorly. Denver is 27-18 against the spread as home underdogs since 2010, covering at a 60% rate. However, those games didn’t feature a backup quarterback who hasn’t seen live action in two years.
Patriots Road Warriors
One factor working in New England’s favor is their road dominance. The Patriots are a perfect 8-0 away from Foxborough this season, making them the only team in the league without a road loss. They don’t fold in hostile environments.
Historically, New England has struggled in Denver during the playoffs, carrying an 0-4 postseason record at Mile High. But this Patriots team has proven to be different. They’ve won everywhere they’ve traveled this year.
On the flip side, the Broncos own a 15-3 home record over the past two years. The altitude, the crowd noise, and the familiar surroundings all work in Denver’s favor. But none of those advantages can make up for the massive downgrade at quarterback.
Drake Maye Has Been Sharp
While the Broncos are scrambling to adjust to life without Nix, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been razor-sharp all season. He’s received Most Improved Player recognition from the Pro Football Writers Association and has led one of the league’s most efficient offenses. New England tied for first in yards per play and ranked second in scoring during the regular season.
Maye has taken some hits in the postseason, getting sacked five times in each of the past two playoff games. The Broncos’ elite pass rush will certainly test him. But there’s a significant difference between a young quarterback who has been battle-tested all season and a backup who hasn’t taken a snap in meaningful action for over two years.
Speaking of which, the Patriots know Stidham well. They drafted him in the fourth round back in 2019, and Josh McDaniels served as his offensive coordinator for three seasons. That familiarity could prove invaluable for New England’s defensive game plan.
Expert Consensus
The national media is largely siding with New England here. All five NFL.com editors picked the Patriots, with projected scores ranging from 20-17 to 24-21. CBS Sports has seven of eight analysts taking New England, with only Pete Prisco picking Denver (23-21). The Patriots team site is unanimously backing their squad.
The Broncos-centric media at Mile High Huddle, predictably, are supporting their team. Nearly all of their staff picked Denver to advance, largely believing the team will rally behind Stidham and that the defense will force turnovers against Maye. It’s a reasonable theory, but it requires Stidham to avoid making critical mistakes while the defense carries the load.
Our Lean
We lean towards New England, particularly if the line continues to drop and we can grab -3 or better. The Patriots are going to make Stidham beat them. They’ll likely sell out to stop the run and force the game onto the shoulders of a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in live action for two years.
The rust factor cannot be overstated. Stidham will be facing a playoff atmosphere, a top-tier defense, and pressure unlike anything he’s experienced since his brief stint as a starter at the end of 2023. Meanwhile, Maye has been consistent all season and knows exactly what championship moments require.
We would have considered New England even if Nix was playing, though we’d have needed a much better number. Without him? The case for the Patriots becomes stronger.
Total Thoughts
We’re also leaning under 43. No Nix. A quarterback who hasn’t taken a snap in two years. Two legitimate defenses. This has the makings of a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair.
We had this game projected under when Nix was healthy, so without him, the case for the under becomes even more persuasive. Expect conservative play-calling from Denver as Sean Payton tries to protect Stidham, and expect the Patriots to focus on controlling the clock and limiting possessions.
The Bottom Line
Our Lean: Patriots -3 (if available)
Our Lean: Under 43
Both are just leans here. The Broncos defense is too good and Sean Payton is too crafty for us to be overly aggressive. But the quarterback situation is simply too significant to ignore. Denver is asking Stidham to do something few have done in conference championship history under these circumstances. But it has been done. Jeff Hostetler’s phones been ringing off the hook this week! (look it up if you’re too young to remember)
Note: Our stronger play this weekend is the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. We view that matchup as more favorable for betting purposes than this one.