AMERICAN IDOL FINALE – 2007

CLICK HERE FOR SEASON 7 PREDICTIONS  – 2008

UPDATE 5/23 – Very little doubt in tonight’s outcome. Jordin Sparks is the winner. The major, reliable polls are not even close. So, no chance to even hedge off the original wager without laying a fortune. So Our below wager, is a loser.

However, if you find any sportsbooks, friends, etc. willing to accept a wager on tonight’s outcome, go ahead and take Jordin Sparks. It’s a “lock”  in a business (sports betting) where there generally is no such thing.

So what happened? I imagine that Jordin Sparks picked up the votes that were previously going to Melinda Doolittle. That more than likely put her way over the top. However the comments of the judges certainly didn’t help. It was pretty clear that they had a preference towards Sparks and wanted to insure her victory and leave no doubt. Such is the risk when wagering on reality TV. It can be profitable, but it can also backfire.

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5/22

You have two choices for betting the American Idol finale. Well, actually three. You can bet BEFORE the performances tonight. You can bet AFTER the performances tonight. Or you can bet both before and after.

Current prices are Blake Lewis +325 and Jordin Sparks -425.

Based on all of the voting and polls to date, my guess going in is that Jordin Sparks has an edge in the overall popularity. She is, after all, a better “singer” and American Idol is supposed to be a “singing competition”. On the other hand, Blake Lewis is by far the better entertainer, and in my opinion has a better chance of giving a knock out performance when it really counts.

So the real question is, is Jordin Sparks -425 a fair, accurate price? Is she that much better and does she figure to win by a 4-1 margin of votes? I say no way.

I think you’ll see a fairly close vote, certainly closer than the current price indicates. In that case, the current prices you see out there on Blake Lewis are probably the best you’ll see from here forward. The books take these odds off the board prior to the performances tonight, and then re-post the adjusted line afterwards. Generally the next day.

So my strategy for betting this thing will be as follows.

Take Blake Lewis now, at the current price of +325 or better.

Once the show is over and the odds are reposted you’re likely to see much lower odds posted, unless this kid is totally blown off the stage tonight. This will present you with a few options on Wednesday.

1) You can scalp by playing Jordin Sparks Wednesday at lower than -325, and lock in a small guaranteed profit.

2) You can sit with your original wager on Blake Lewis and go for the nice score

3) You can buy back only a portion on Jordin Sparks and leave it heavy on Blake Lewis

4) You can buy back more on Jordin Sparks and leave your wager on heavy on her

We will be back on this page Wednesday with updates as to what the right move will be. Before show time on Wednesday, we’ll have a very good idea as to who the actual winner is. So check back for that. If you don’t want the risk involved with the above strategy, simply wait until we come back on Wednesday with Our final prediction.

80th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

This Sunday, February 24th, Marks the 80th anniversary of the Academy Awards. Every year there are surprises and this year figures to be no different. Fans will once again be able to wager on all the major Oscar categories such as Best Picture, Best Actor, and so on. No Country for Old Men is the odds on favorite to win BEST PICTURE at odds of 1/3 Followed closely by There will be blood at 7/4. ……and the Oscar goes to………

Here are the betting odds

from the largest sportsbook in the World, 5dimes.com

BEST PICTURE

 No Country for Old Men 1 – 3

There Will be Blood 7 – 4

Atonement 5 – 1

Juno 6 – 1

Michael Clayton 12 – 1

BEST DIRECTOR

 Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men) 1 – 4

Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) 7 – 2

Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) 6 – 1

Jason Reitman (Juno) 25 – 1

Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) 25 – 1

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) 1 – 10

Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) 4 – 1

George Clooney (Michael Clayton) 8 – 1

Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) 20 – 1

Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) 20 – 1

BET ON THE OSCARS AT 5dimes.com
 

BEST ACTRESS

Julie Christie (Away from Her) 2 – 5

Marion Cotillard (La vie en Rose) 2 – 1

Ellen Page (Juno) 3 – 1

Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth (The Golden Age) 20 – 1

Laura Linney (Savages) 20 – 1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) 1 – 10

Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James) 9 – 1

Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) 12 – 1

Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) 14 – 1

Philip SeymOur Hoffman (Charlie Wilsons War) 15 – 1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) 3 – 2

Cate Blanchett (Im Not There) 1 – 1

Ruby Dee (American Gangster) 2 – 1

Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) 20 – 1

Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) 10 – 1

CHECK OUT ALL THE OSCAR ODDS AT 5dimes.com

NATHANS HOT DOG EATING CONTEST

ODDS – ANALYSIS – PREDICTIONS

7/4/08

Results are in – Joey Chestnut retains his crown – they went to sudden death and had to have a 5 dog overtime

****Please Note – If you’re looking for coverage of the 2009 event – please click here

There will be plenty of betting opportunities over the 4th of July Holiday weekend, but they won’t be limited to baseball and NASCAR. No, the event likely to take center stage is the famous Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Odds have been posted on a couple of the most popular contestants as well as the field so let’s take a look at the odds while we offer Our predictions and analysis as well.

I remember the first time I heard the name Takeru Kobayashi. It was late at night and I was surfing the channels on my television. I ended up watching Jay Leno. Jay is always a funny guy, and he had prepared a short cartoon about a man named Takeru Kobayashi. The world had been flooded, and Kobayashi saved the day by dipping hot dogs in the water, and swallowing it all up. That was my first impression of professional eating.

Takeru Kobayashi is a six time world champion competitive eater. He is also a member of the International Federation of Competitive Eating. Kobayashi held the world record for hot dog eating for nearly six years, and is ranked third overall by International Federation of Competitive Eating. He has a few training methods, and techniques for competition. Kobayashi will eat bigger and bigger amounts of food prior to competition and combines that with some exercise prior to the competition. This prevents the fat from impeding his stoMACh expansion. He also known for shaking his body during competition. This has been nicknamed the �Kobayashi Shuffle�.

On July 4, Kobayashi will be competing in Nathan�s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Like all good things in life, you can wager on the event. If you�re a fan of the Japanese phenom, you can double your money by wagering on him, as his current odds are 1-1. If your not quite impressed with Takeru, you could opt for hometown hero, Joey Chestnut.

In 2007 Joey �Jaws� Chestnut snapped Kobayashi�s win streak at 6. Currently ranked 1st by the International Federation of Competitive Eating, Chestnut�s ability is quite amazing. I can�t even imagine being able to eat as much as this guy. Chestnut has a record list too long to list. Among his record are eating 59 peanut butter sandwich in 10 minutes. He also ate 7 pounds of chicken wings in under 12 minutes. Another remarkable record he claims is eating 47 grilled cheese sandwiches in under 10 minutes. This guy must have a bottomless pit for a stoMACh. His currents odds are 10-13.

If you decide to go with the field at 3-1, you will get every other eater. Among those eaters are Sonya Thomas. This 98 pound phenom has been nicknamed �The Black Widow� for her ability to defeat men Four to five times her size. She is ranked 6th in the world by the International Federation of Competitive Eating. You will also get the 2nd ranked Patrick Bertoletti. His list of accomplishments include eating an entire 16� pizza in 10 minutes, and eating a pound of chocolate in 7 minutes. Patrick also ate 21 pounds of grits in 10 minutes. How does these people do this?! Another eater includedin the field is Timothy Janus. The 30 year old day trader is shattered the tamale record by eating 71 in 12 minutes. He was the 2004 rookie of the year.

Nathan�s Hot Dog Eating Contest will be broadcast live by ESPN at 12 PM EST on July 4. Make sure to get your wagers in. While I am certainly no expert on food eating contests, I will opt with Takeru Kobayashi. The 6 time world champion lost last year, and should come back with renewed vigor this time around. I�ll have a few dollars on him at even money. Go get �em Kobayashi!!!

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2008 FRENCH OPEN ODDS

The 2008 French Open begins this week and sportsbooks have posted odds to win at Roland Garros. It should come as no surprise that Rafael Nadal is favored to win his forth straight French Open title, something not done since the days of Bjorn Borg. You would have to lay -165 to win 100 betting on Nadal to win the title.

3 of the 4 semi finalists of last year are at the top of the odds chart once again this year. Roger Federer is listed at 5-1 odds while Novak Djokovic is listed at 6-1. The bargain of the Tournament may be Nikolay Davydenko who is listed at 25-1 odds. He lost in the semi-finals last year to Federer.

David Nalbandian is listed at 20-1 odds and worth a look due to his recent success on clay, 15-2 this year.

The French Open holds some drama every year for Roger Federer fans (and Roger himself). It’s the only major title he has never won. Certainly, it’s tempting to bet on the number one tennis player in the world when you’re getting 5-1 odds. But clay has not been kind to Federer. Federer is 7-8 in finals on clay. Compare that to Nadal who is 19-1 in clay cOurt finals. He is 7-1 in finals on clay against Federer and just beat him once again in Monte Carlo. Federer hadn’t reached the finals all year until this week at Monte Carlo, so perhaps he’s finding his form just in time to take another run at the elusive French Open Title. But don’t bet on it!

As in golf with Tiger Woods, there’s more value in betting on individual matchups in the French Open in each round of the Tournament, rather than taking a shot against the dominant Nadal to win the the Tournament.

For a look at some early round value players as well as some players to stay away from, have a look at Our French Open Picks.

Here are the current odds to win the 2008 French Open

updated 5/20

Rafael Nadal 2 – 5

Roger Federer 3 – 1

Novak Djokovic 9 – 2

zx Field (Any Other Player) 8 – 1

David Nalbandian 25 – 1

Nikolay Davydenko 25 – 1

David Ferrer 30 – 1

Nicolas Almagro 40 – 1

Stanislas Wawrinka 50 – 1

Andy Murray 60 – 1

Richard Gasquet 80 – 1

Tomas Berdych 80 – 1

Fernando Gonzalez 80 – 1

Lleyton Hewitt 100 – 1

Marat Safin 100 – 1

Guillermo Canas 100 – 1

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 100 – 1

Marcos Baghdatis 100 – 1

James Blake 200 – 1

TIGER WOODS US OPEN BETTING

By 5dimes.com

It wasn’t unrealistic for Tiger Woods to believe he had a legitimate shot at the Grand Slam in 2008 before the start of the Masters at Augusta. But the best golfer in the world stumbled in the first major, putting an early damper on the Grand Slam talk….and then he had knee surgery.

So exactly what Tiger Woods will tee-off this week at the US Open is an interesting question.

His knee appears to be sufficiently healed, although he has been using a cart on practice rounds, and hadn’t played a full 18 holes since the Masters until this week. He loves the Torrey Pines course and it is a Major, so the odds are good he’ll be in the mix come Sunday.

There is a full U.S. Open betting menu, including options for Tiger, such as:

he is +250 to win the U.S. Open and even though he is the odds-on favorite and the line isn’t offering a lot of value, he might be worth the wager as he has won six times at this course in San Diego.

But although Tiger is chomping at the bit to get back at it, there are others to consider

One of Tiger’s biggest rivals, Phil Mickelson, is +500 to beat out Woods and the rest of the field in San Diego.

The USGA sneered at the wishes of the TV broadcaster and did fans a favor by pairing Tiger and Lefty together on Thursday and Friday. 5dimes.com has a Head-To-Head Matchup bet option with Woods favored at -140 and Mickelson.

The two were paired together once before at the U.S. Open back in 1999 in the third round. It wasn’t Tiger’s best round as he failed to birdie any holes and finished the round at 1-over par. Mickelson on the other hand fared much better shooting under par in every hole until he broke even three times and went 1-over once in the final Four holes finishing the round at even par.

Bettors like Woods in this one, as he is receiving a majority of action, grabbing 66% of the early action wagered, while Phil sits at 34%.

Tiger is getting even more of the action in the full Tournament matchup betting vs. Lefty with 79% of the betting action going Woods’ way.

Other matchup bets that are seeing steady betting action:

Bettors seem to have forgotten that Geoff Ogilvy won the U.S. Open at Winged Foot in New York a mere two years ago as Ogilvy is only seeing 29% of the betting action and partner Padraig Harrington is getting 71%.

Sergio Garcia is teamed with Vijay Singh and is seeing 59% of the action.

But as usual, all eyes will be on Tiger as he tries to capture the U.S. Open; take win No. 7 at Torrey Pines and shake off the rust from a two month layoff after having knee surgery.

Enjoy all the golf from San Diego.

Check out 5dimes.com’s 50% US Open match bonus running all Thursday.

5/23/12

Welcome back American Idol fans. In the past we have started Our weekly American Idol predictions much earlier than we are this year. The main reason for that is that there are fewer sportsbooks posting odds on the earlier rounds of American Idol. Specifically elimination odds. Our strong point has always been the finals where we have only missed picking the winner one time (Adam Lambert).

This year, while there have been some surprises, it once again looks as though there are only a couple of contestants with a legitimate shot to win. One sportsbook to check for current odds to win American Idol Season 11 would be 5dimes Sportsbook.

FINALE PREDICTION:

Ok, the votes are in and we await the winner. This looks to be one of the most difficult finales to predict in all the years we have been doing this for several reasons. First, we apologize for not being active with Our week to week elimination predictions this year. Betting on American Idol, this year, has not been as popular as in past years, for many reasons. As a result, we have had to direct Our time and energy to more traditional forms of sportsbetting, such as baseball and basketball. That being said, we still watched the show and have also done Our usual research, so, here goes.

First, a personal opinion. Who does yours truly think is the better artist? (Artist being the key word here). Phillip Phillips would get my vote. If I was going to buy a record, or pay to see a performance by either of these two, it would be Phillips hands down. Considering most of the people who actually take the time to officially vote are likely in the younger age groups, I would think that would give Phillips an edge. Do young people, male of female, want to sit through a couple hOurs of a 16 year old girl singing Whitney Houston tunes? Or would they rather listen to something current and original?

Phillips also has an edge based on the two most popular voting groups, the southern vote and the teenage girl vote. Both have helped propel past winners over the hump. There’s a lot of chatter about the “white guy with guitar” popularity. The last female winner was Jordin Sparks on 2007. The next 4 winners were David Cook, Kris Allen, Lee Dewyze and Scotty Mccreery. All pulled in the southern vote and the teeny bopper vote and Phillip Phillips would seem to fit right in.

Social media has been a great indicator over the years. By measuring the popularity of contestants on twitter, facebook and Google searches, you could get a pretty good idea of who the winner was likely to be. However, there’s a major problem with that angle this year. Jessica Sanchez would appear to have a huge lead based on social media. Her twitter followers and facebook “likes” have sky rocketed. But she is INSANELY popular in the Philippines and that is having a huge impact on her social media popularity. (official Idol votes can only be from the USA)

Google gives you the option of filtering those results. When you use only search data from the USA, Phillips holds a small edge. One site we visit, votefair.org, has been removing votes from the Philippines yet still shows Jessica Sanchez as the most popular contestant and has had her in the lead for the entire season. In fact, most online polls we have seen, some with only a few hundred votes, one with 11,000, favor Sanchez. The poll with 11,000 votes actually favored Sanchez by close to 70%. These small online polls have done a great job in past years of predicting the winners, however they may be iNFLuenced by a large audience that can’t actually vote for the winner.

The oddsmakers and bettors are favoring Phillips. Betfair, the popular European betting exchange still had Phillips as the overwhelming favorite as of this morning with Sanchez a 3/1 underdog.

Lastly, you have the sympathy vote. Phillips has been sick for most of the show. Kidney stones I believe. He is holding off on the surgery, against his Doctors wishes, until after the finale. We all love to see a competitor play through the pain.

So who will it be? Will Philippines voters circumvent the Idol system and crown Sanchez? Will Phillips and his kidney stones pull through? Will those risking actual money on the outcome at sportsbooks and betting exchanges prove to be right in making Phillips the prohibitive favorite?

PREDICTED WINNER

JESSICA SANCHEZ!!

You guys like betting on football? Be sure to check out our college football picks and NFL picks. They are the best around!

AMERICAN IDOL BETTING

4/23/07

CLICK HERE FOR  AMERICAN IDOL PREDICICTIONS

Ok, so you’re embarrassed to admit you watch American Idol. You tell your buddies that your girlfriend or wife “makes” you watch it with her. You just watch it to make her happy. Yeah yeah yeah. Whatever. Hey, I watch the show and actually enjoy it. But more importantly, it’s become another wagering profit center for me and the only handicapping I need to do is watch the damn show, use a little common sense and a few online tools!

As a matter of fact, the closest thing I have ever seen to a lock in the wagering world was last year when Taylor Hicks won the crown. Sportsbooks were taking high limits and it was like stealing. I actually couldn’t believe they were leaving it on the board. Unlike major sporting events, when you bet on American Idol, in the case of last years Taylor Hicks win for example, your betting on something where the results are in. This is a public opinion show. There are many ways to gauge public opinion on something like this.

Dial Idol (www.dialidol.com) is probably the most well known tool for this purpose, but their are plenty of other polls out there as well which you can use to get a good idea which way the public is voting.

It’s also important to understand the voting audience of American Idol. The “teen vote”, particularly teenage girls, is very strong for example. You also need to pay attention to other media sOurces and websites trying to mess with the results. Votefortheworst.com is one such example. Another example this year, was Howard Stern asking his listeners to vote for Sanjaya. Had Howard Stern still been on regular radio, with his former massive listening audience, he probably could have kept Sanjaya in it until the end.

Speaking of Sanjaya, when a contestant gets eliminated, as a handicapper, you also have to figure out where there votes are going to go. In Sanjayas case, aside from the phony votes, he also had a ton of support from the teenage girl vote we mentioned above. Who are they likely to vote for now??

Lastly, there are distinct patterns in the voting which can lead you to profits. For example, a couple of weeks ago, Haley Scarnato was voted off. I cashed a 5-1 ticket on her being voted off that night. The wager was based on common sense, and knowing the voting patterns of the show. During the course of this years show, she had been in the bottom 3 a few times, and was even made to cry by the judges due to her poor performance one week. The week she got the boot, she probably had the worst performance of all the contestants. Yet she was 5-1 to get the boot while “Lakisha” was the odds on favorite to get the boot. The odds were simply wrong (as was dial idol). Lakisha had never been in the bottom 3 and had actually been one of the favorites to win it all for much of this year.

There may not be a chance to cash in this year, like last years Taylor Hicks lock. But there are a few weeks to go and there can still be some surprises. Let’s take a quick look at the remaining contestants.

Melinda Doolittle – At -120 to win it all, she may not be such a bad bet. She’s clearly the best of the group and has yet to have a bad week. Each week she gets the overwhelming support of the judges and the voting audience.

Jordon Sparks  – at +200 there’s hardly any value here. This contestant is only 17, so she does figure to get some of that teenage vote going down the stretch.

Blake Lewis – At +475 there may be some value here. The last few weeks haven’t been great for this kid, but he is very talented. He mixes beat boxing in with his singing and very unique.

Lakisha Jones – She is +1000. For much of this season, she was tied with Melinda Doolittle as the one to beat. The judges couldn’t say enough good things about her. But the last few weeks her performances have slipped as has her support. She even appeared in the bottom 3 last week.

Chris Richardson – At +3300, one of two long shots at this price. His support has been slipping as well. He may pick up some of the Sanjaya vote so this week will be interesting. But all in all, he simply doesn’t match up talent wise with the rest.

Phil Stacey – Another long shot at +3300. He is +145 to be voted off this week. He has appeared in the bottom 3 a few times already which is generally a prelude to getting the boot. Add in the fact that he doesn’t figure to get any of the Sanjaya votes, and he could need a miracle performance this week to stay alive. Before this weeks performances, he’d be my pick to get the boot next.

80th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

This Sunday, February 24th, Marks the 80th anniversary of the Academy Awards. Every year there are surprises and this year figures to be no different. Fans will once again be able to wager on all the major Oscar categories such as Best Picture, Best Actor, and so on. No Country for Old Men is the odds on favorite to win BEST PICTURE at odds of 1/3 Followed closely by There will be blood at 7/4. ……and the Oscar goes to………

Here are the betting odds

from the largest sportsbook in the World, 5dimes.com

BEST PICTURE

 No Country for Old Men 1 – 3

There Will be Blood 7 – 4

Atonement 5 – 1

Juno 6 – 1

Michael Clayton 12 – 1

BEST DIRECTOR

 Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men) 1 – 4

Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) 7 – 2

Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) 6 – 1

Jason Reitman (Juno) 25 – 1

Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) 25 – 1

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) 1 – 10

Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) 4 – 1

George Clooney (Michael Clayton) 8 – 1

Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) 20 – 1

Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) 20 – 1

BET ON THE OSCARS AT 5dimes.com
 

BEST ACTRESS

Julie Christie (Away from Her) 2 – 5

Marion Cotillard (La vie en Rose) 2 – 1

Ellen Page (Juno) 3 – 1

Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth (The Golden Age) 20 – 1

Laura Linney (Savages) 20 – 1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) 1 – 10

Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James) 9 – 1

Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) 12 – 1

Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) 14 – 1

Philip SeymOur Hoffman (Charlie Wilsons War) 15 – 1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) 3 – 2

Cate Blanchett (Im Not There) 1 – 1

Ruby Dee (American Gangster) 2 – 1

Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) 20 – 1

Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) 10 – 1

CHECK OUT ALL THE OSCAR ODDS AT 5dimes.com

Back to the Futures Pt.1: The Prophet on how to bet future wagers

By Netprophet Sports

If you don’t pay close attention, it seems like the NASCAR season never ends. The 2005 season concluded a couple months back with Tony Stewart winning the Nextel Cup and already the season opening race at Daytona is on the horizon. I’m in the process of trying to isolate some good values on the futures to win the 2006 NASCAR championship (which I’ll be posting here on Bettorsworld within the next week or so) and that got me thinking about future wagers.

Many serious sports bettors consider the futures wager the province of rank amateurs. I know this guy I grew up with in Salt Lake City who’s a devout Mormon and wouldn’t think of betting on a sporting event. Every year he’d make the two hOur drive across the Nevada border to Wendover and put $100 on the Utah Jazz to win the Western Conference and the NBA title. He may still do this for all I know. It was the ultimate “homer” wager and no thought was given to the strength of the play or the value he was getting.

Another way the amateur approaches future betting is to go for the “big killing”. They’re the sports betting equivalent of the wanna-be stock investor who always gripes “if only I had bought Microsoft when they went public”. They’re not the type who’ll do the work to grind out profits in the market, nor are they forward thinking enough to find the next big company to go public. They’d rather lay some money on a high priced dog and hope for the best, which seldom (if ever) occurs. Right now at Pinnacle a $100 bet on the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series will pay back $60,000. The problem is that the true odds of Kansas City winning the World Series are probably in the range of 10,000 to 1 which makes the +60000 you’re getting in this bet a bad value from the get-go.

Even for the more pragmatic bettor, the inherent problems with futures wagers are readily apparent. You have to tie up your wagering capital for a long time. More significantly, once your bet is down you’re at the mercy of the countless interceding events that can iNFLuence the fortunes of a sports team. It’s hard enough trying to weigh the significance of scheduling, injuries, personnel movement and so forth on a day to day basis. Controlling for all of these variables over an entire season is impossible.

So why bet futures at all? More so than anything else, I try to stress to my clients the importance of thinking of sports wagering not in terms of who wins or loses, but in terms of value. Properly utilized, future book wagers are often a great sOurce of value. Below are some of the ways I like to use future wagers:

1) The early bird gets the worm. The early bettor gets the value: One of my specialties is non-sport proposition wagers, and particularly entertainment based wagers like the Academy Awards. Someone once referred to me as the “Billy Walters of non-sport entertainment bets” which is lofty praise indeed. I’ve always been a bit of a film junkie (my minor in college was in film studies) and I enjoy following “the industry” and keeping up-to-date on what’s happening in Hollywood. This gives me a decided edge over the bookmaker, who doesn’t have the time to stay juiced in to industry news and gossip.

Every year some sportsbooks start to take action on the “big” Academy Awards categories like Best Picture and Best Director well before the actual nominations are released. If you can stay up-to-date on the “buzz” surrounding certain films you can get substantially better value than if you wait until after the nominations are released.

Case in point: in early December Olympic had Steven Spielberg’s “Munich” priced at +200 to win Best Picture. That didn’t change much after the picture was released to divided critical opinion. The “buzz” was all about the yet-to-be released gay cowboy film “Brokeback Mountain” which was priced at +500. I told my clients to bet “Brokeback Mountain” at +500.

At the very least, if “Brokeback” received a nomination we’d have a position on it at a significantly better price than we could get after the nominations narrowed down the field to only five films. If you study the history of the nomination process it’s easy to identify a pattern to the films that get nominated. It’s almost as if the Academy has defined “slots” to fill accordingly: one low budget independent film, one historical period drama, one big box office film and so forth. “Brokeback Mountain” clearly fit the profile of a film that would get nominated.

So worst case scenario, if I was right we’d have a great price on one of five nominees and we could reassess Our position. In this case, its worked out about as well as it possibly could-the film has received almost universal critical acclaim, has dominated the smaller year end awards and the Golden Globes and has had just enough controversy to sustain that all important “buzz”. Much like a college sports information office promoting a Heisman trophy candidate, Universal Pictures has thrown all of their promotional efforts behind this film and given “Munich” short shrift (which Steven Spielberg has complained about in the press). In other words, we’ve got the “film to beat” for Best Picture at +500 (the current price at Olympic is -600, which will be even higher after the nominations are released). At this moment, I’m thinking it’s the winner and will hold on to the position. If something changed between now and the award presentation I’ll be able to modify my position easily-and profitably.

The nature of the film industry makes using a future wager in this manner very attractive. The release Schedule of films is established in advance and is publicly known. The cut off date for award consideration is the end of the calendar year, so nothing can pop up and become a surprise after that. Of the hundreds of films that are released each year only a handful are legit Oscar contenders and with some work its easy to narrow those down further. After that it’s just a matter of finding the value.

2) Taking a position for profit: Now we’ll turn Our attention to sports and how to use the futures wager there. As I noted above, sports inherently presents more variables than the film industry. Furthermore, the top teams are usually not priced for value. Currently at Olympic, you can bet on the eventual winner of the NCAA basketball championship. Duke is priced at +200 and Connecticut at +350 and neither price interests me at this point of the season. Both teams are certainly capable of winning, but the value just isn’t there.

The place to find value in this sort of proposition is to look at the less “obvious” teams. Shortly after the NHL season began an associate of mine took positions on several teams that started slowly. For example, he got the Calgary Flames at 40/1! They’re now 7/1 at Olympic and 12/1 at 5 Dimes.

This play wasn’t based on any sort of certainty that Calgary would win the Stanley Cup, but rather on the value they presented. In other words, the “true odds” of the Flames winning the Cup is more in the range of the current price so the 40/1 is a clear overlay. Once the playoffs begin, this sort of positional play offers a lot of options to hedge and to lock in a profit.

3) Don’t forget the field: Many bettors dismiss plays on “the field” in a futures wager out of hand, thinking that the wager represents all of the entrants not good enough to justify an individual price. If you pay attention, however, you can frequently use a “field” wager to your advantage. Shortly after Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death at the 2001 Daytona 500 I found a sportsbook that was offering a “field” wager on the NASCAR rookie of the year award at 15/1. Richard Childress Racing hadn’t “officially” announced Harvick as the fulltime replacement for Earnhardt, but the word on the streets strongly suggested that would be the case. I knew that Harvick was a talented young driver (he was the 2000 Busch Series rookie of the year), but the unique situation with a rookie driving for one of the best financed and most experienced teams in the sport was too good to pass up. I made the bet on Harvick at just the right time, since after he was announced as the replacement for Earnhardt the line dropped to 5/1. After he won his first race (in his third race) the line dropped to 2/1 and by mid season the “field” was a -250 chalk.

This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didn’t work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn’t uncommonto find a “field” bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You won’t be able to take advantage of the “field” bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.

As a postscript, I want to emphasize the importance on shopping around any futures play for the best price. Shopping points is a smart thing to do on any wager, but the differences from book to book are frequently most extreme with futures plays. A little legwork can yield a substantially better price and the resulting better value.

In the next part of my analysis of futures wagers we’ll talk about what not to do. Look for that in the next couple of days.

ODDS TO WIN 2008 US OPEN GOLF

TIGER WOODS – PHIL MICKELSON

Golf’s 2008 US Open takes place on June 12th at Torrey Pines, overlooking the Pacific Ocean in San Diego California. All eyes will be on the odds on favorite, Tiger Woods as he comes back from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Below, we will list the odds to win the 2008 US Open with the current and updated odds of every player in the Tournament.

A couple of months ago, most in the golf world were ready to hand the US Open title to Tiger Woods. He was winning everything in site in 2008 and has had some great success at Torrey Pines. But the surgery will surely add some drama this year. As will Phil Mickelson the 2nd betting choice with odds to win of 8-1, which may be a heck of a bargain. Like Woods, Mickelson has had success at Torrey Pines.

Phil Mickelson grew up in San Diego. He played High School matches at Torrey Pines. He has already played Torrey Pines at least half a dozen times this year and he is known for his preperation for all the Majors. He plays the course. Takes notes on each hole. No one prepares like Mickelson. Of course Tiger Woods has had even more success at Torrey Pines but the knee Surgery is the wild card.

Golf is as much mental as it is skill and Physical. Whether you are Tiger Woods or some weekend hack, coming back from a layoff after something as routine as arthroscopic surgery can plant a seed of doubt and affect your Game. At this level, there’s obviously no room for error. Even if the doubt only affects a few strokes early on, that may be all someone like Mickelson needs. Without question there will be big time drama when the US Open kicks off this year.

BET THE US OPEN AT 5dimes.com

From a betting standpoint, there are two ways to approach this in Our opinion. As with any match, there’s never any value betting on Woods. At 3-2 odds, the price is too high. Especially when you consider the the dynamics of this particular US Open, with the knee surgery and going up against someone like Mickelson at Torrey Pines. With or without those factors, we’d be looking elsewhere.

If we approach this Tournament with the mindset that Woods may be a half step behind, opening the door for others, there are two value plays here. One of course, is Mickelson at 8-1 odds. That’s a great price with or without the knee surgery. He’s Our pick to win it. The other play would be to take the field at 4-1 odds, which of course includes Mickelson. We’ll play the field for a very small wager with Our main play being on Mickelson.

The head to head matchups will be where the real value is at this years US Open. We’ll have additional plays on June 10th or 11th on the matchups, so be sure to check back with us.

Here are the current odds to win the 2008 US Open. We will update these odds more frequently as June 12th Approaches.

Tiger Woods 3 – 2

zx Field (Any Other Golfers) 4 – 1

Phil Mickelson 8 – 1

Sergio Garcia 15 – 1

Jim Furyk 20 – 1

Retief Goosen 25 – 1

Padraig Harrington 25 – 1

Vijay Singh 25 – 1

Adam Scott 25 – 1

Ernie Els 30 – 1

Geoff Ogilvy 30 – 1

Luke Donald 40 – 1

Zach Johnson 40 – 1

Stewart Cink 40 – 1

Justin Rose 50 – 1

KJ Choi 50 – 1

Trevor Immelman 50 – 1

Boo Weekley 50 – 1

Stephen Ames 60 – 1

Andres Romero 60 – 1

Aaron Baddeley 60 – 1

Steve Stricker 60 – 1

Angel Cabrera 80 – 1

Lee Westwood 80 – 1

Brandt Snedeker 80 – 1

Paul Casey 80 – 1

Mike Weir 80 – 1

Henrik Stenson 80 – 1

Ian Poulter 80 – 1

Stuart Appleby 80 – 1

Justin Leonard 80 – 1

Sean OHair 80 – 1

Tim Clark 80 – 1

Chad Campbell 80 – 1

Rory Sabbatini 80 – 1

Michael Campbell 100 – 1

Ben Curtis 100 – 1

Jerry Kelly 100 – 1

Woody Austin 100 – 1

Charles Howell III 100 – 1

Martin Kaymer 100 – 1

Niclas Fasth 100 – 1

David Toms 100 – 1

Colin Montgomerie 100 – 1

Bubba Watson 100 – 1

Robert Allenby 100 – 1

Hunter Mahan 100 – 1

Steve Flesch 100 – 1

Scott Verplank 100 – 1