RAYS LOSING STREAK HITS Four GameS

7/11/08

As we enter the final weekend before the break, we’re going to start Our baseball summer vacation, so this will be the last day for free plays until next Thursday. You can still check in at the Free Sports Monitor each day to check out the free picks and offers over the weekend. There’s an important message at the end of this article about this years football key releases. If you’re interested in these plays, please read it.

No big time series matchups to highlight heading into the break.  Arizona and Philly is an interesting series between a couple of division leaders, but let’s not forget, Arizona is a .500 team and Philly is only a few Games over .500. The Dodgers and Marlins has some juice to it, but like the series above, these are mediocre teams folks.

Only two Games separate the Tigers and Twins in the AL Central so that series has some implications but perhaps the most interesting series of all involves a terrible team and a very good team and that would be the Indians and Rays. The Rays have now lost a season high 4 straight and look to keep from losing 5 straight for the first time all year. It’s a huge series also, because no team wants to head into the all star break on a skid. Especially when you were the best team in baseball over the first half of the year. Baseball is as much mental as anything else. Having 4 or 5 days to sit their and stew about what’s going wrong isn’t going to help matters. The Rays need at least a split in Cleveland, where they haven’t won in over 3 years.

Speaking of the Indians and Rays, I’m going to use that Game as Our last free play before the break. As you know, baseball is a Game of streaks. Here we have one monster streak just having come to an end with the Indians snapping a 10 Game skid. The Rays on the other hand are in the midst of what looks like it will be their longest losing streak season to date and at the worst possible time, before the break. This looks like a good spot for the Indians to take two in a row, as bad as they are, and as good as the Rays have been. The Indians send Lee to the hill tonight and he’s been their shining star all year with an 11-2 record and a 2.43 era. Look for the Rays troubles to continue tonight in Cleveland.

What keeps this from being a regular play? I have a general rule that I apply across the board regardless of the sport. That is, “never ask a bad team to win for you”. When you wager on a sporting event, you are basically handing your money over to the team you bet on for a couple of hOurs. You’re entrusting this team with your hard earned money and telling them you have enough confidence in them to protect your money, to go win a Game and get you some more. With so many opportunities all year long in whatever the sport may be, to invest with good teams, why take the chance of throwing your money away with a bunch of clowns? The Indians are clowns. This is a good spot for them, but we’ll leave it as a free play.

Good Luck – Enjoy the All Star Break – If you’re interested in the All Star Game, check back as we’ll have some coverage over the weekend. Football coverage starts very soon as well. We can’t wait. Speaking of which, the Key Releases will go out to the email list first this year, before they appear on the website. If you’re serious about playing these Games, you’ll should sign up for the email list. Many of these Games move. There’s lots of people playing these plays. Enough sharps that, at times, the lines can get away from you to where there’s no more value. since they can be released at anytime during the week, email is your best bet. You can sign up below.

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Brewers +105 over Blue Jays – Just a matter of taking a hot team over a slumping teams here as we get the Brewers as a slight dog at home, where they are 22-12 on the year and riding a 3 Game winning streak while the Blue Jays have taken a nose dive losing 4 straight, 3-7 their last 10 and sit at the bottom of the AL East. The price is right in part because of the pitching matchup, which isn’t favorable for us as we get Dave Bush (2-7, 5.73 ERA) for the Brewers, but there is a little added incentive for Hill today as he gets to face the team that originally drafted him. Bush is off to a slow start but did win 12 Games in each of the past two seasons. We’ll take the Brewers to sweep the slumping Jays here.

Cardinals -106 over Royals – We have been on the Cards two Games in a row and have lost 2 Games in a row with them. We’re going right back to the wekk one more time here as the Cards look to avoid getting swept by the Royals. A win here for the Cards is crucial as it doesn’t get any easier after this. They travel to the Northeast to take on the Bosox in Fenway over the Weekend. The Cards are banged up but not making excuses. This is one they have to have and should get. Even with a little momentum, the Royals simply aren’t very good.

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Cubs +133 over Rays – We’re backing another good team here looking to avoid getting swept for the first time this year as the Cubs take on the Rays in the final Game of their 3 Game set. The Cubs are looking to grab a win before heading home to take on the Chisox in what should be a fun series. It won’t be easy at the Rays send Shields to the mound, who is 3-1 at home with an ERA of 1.72, but this is his first Game back after serving a 6 Game suspension, so perhaps we’ll catch a little rust here. Prior to this series the Cubs had won 6 of 7. You can’t keep a team that’s won 62% of it’s ball Games down for long. It’s a Game of percentages, and the percentages say the Cubs are worth a look here, despite the pitching matchup.

The Cardinals find themselves as high as +193 underdogs in Philly tonight, which is just plain ridiculous. Certainly the pitching matchup favors the Phillies and yeah, they have a higher probability of winning tonight than the Cards do. But not at odds as high as -210. You almost have to make an automatic play on the Cardinals here on principle alone. The Phillies are just 2 Games over .500 at home and they have lost 3 straight and 8 of their last 9 at home. The Cards are one of the few teams in all of baseball that has a winning record on the road. You’re just about guaranteed to win this wager over the long run. A wager on a +193 dog under these exact conditions will show you a profit long term, whereas, a play on a 210 favorite under these circumstances will send you looking for a loan eventually.

Briefly, on CC Sabathia, wouldn’t it be funny if he was bombed tonight after this big trade that’s supposed to cement the Brewers post season chances? His ERA in 4 Games against the Rockies is 9.82. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 7. Hmmm.

JULY 8, 7:05 PM CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT

• Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 Games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 7 Games
• Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 Games when playing at home against Cleveland
• Detroit is 3-8 SU in its last 11 Games when playing Cleveland

JULY 8, 7:05 PM HOUSTON vs. PITTSBURGH

• Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 Games
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston’s last 17 Games
• Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 Games when playing at home against Houston
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh’s last 11 Games when playing at home against Houston

JULY 8, 7:05 PM MINNESOTA vs. BOSTON

• Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 Games when playing on the road against Boston
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 Games when playing on the road against Boston
• Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 Games
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston’s last 15 Games

JULY 8, 7:05 PM ST. LOUIS vs. PHILADELPHIA

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 6 Games on the road
• St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 Games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
• Philadelphia is 1-8 SU in its last 9 Games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 Games at home

Let’s start with the American League. We’ll look at the AL East first. No surprises here as bettors think this will be a two team race between the Red Sox and Yankees with the Blue Jays sitting in 3rd and maybe even picking up some ground if either Yanks or Bosox falter. The Bosox numbers remain unchanged which means bettors feel the original number of 93.5 to 94 wins is about right for the Sox. Likewise with the Yanks. There number is 93.5 wins and remains unchanged. The Blue Jays are getting some action, with most bettors feeling that they will win more than the 85.5 Games the oddsmakers initially posted. Not much more though. The team most likely to be improved in the AL East according to the thousands of fans betting on these propositions, is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Oddsmakers perhaps posted a bad number as they initially put the D-Rays as low as 72.5 wins on the year. Bettors pounded that number to where it now sits at 76. So, Our predictions for the American League East based on analyzing betting trends are as follows :

AL East

Yankees

Bosox

Devil Rays

Blue Jays

Orioles

Next, let’s take a look at the American League Central Division. Once again, the bettors think it’s a two team race between the Indians and Tigers. The Tigers initial predicted number of wins according to the sportsbooks was 93.5. But the action came in on the under in that one as it looks like the betting public feels the number should be closer to 91 or 92. The Indians number hasn’t budged from it’s opener of 90 wins. So it looks like a close race between these two. Injuries and slumps could decide it. The rest of the AL Central looks a little more interesting as the Twins, Royals and Chisox are lumped fairly close together. It looks like the surprise team could be the Kansas City Royals. The number of wins initially predicted for the Royals was 71.5. Bettors pounded the Royals to where they now sit at 76, a clear choice for 3rd. We’ll put the Chisox in 4th and the Twins in the Basement. So Our AL Central predictions are as follows :

AL Central

Tigers

Indians

Royals

White Sox

Twins

Out in the West, it looks like the race is over before the season starts. That, according to those who place wagers on baseball futures. The Angels are the clear choice to win the West with 92 wins. The next closes team would be the Mariners though bettors aren’t exactly high on them as they opened as high as 66.5 at some sportsbooks and the under has been pounded. Looks like their number should be closer to 82 or 83. It doesn’t look line the baseball prognosticators have much faith in the next two teams, the Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s so we won’t make an upset pick in the West. Our American League West predictions are as follows:

AL West

Angels

Mariners

Rangers

A’s

So there you have it folks. No big surprises in the American League. The playoff race looks likely to include the Yankees, Bosox, Tigers, Indians and Angels. If we had to add one shocker to Our list of predictions after analyzing the pre season betting trends we use the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Cardinals look to take Rubber Game – Yanks try to keep streak alive

6/15

The Cardinals look to take the rubber Game in their series with the Phillies while the Yankees look to keep their 3 Game winning streak alive and gain some ground in the AL East. Yesterday we hit 3 of 4 dogs showing you the value of underdog betting in baseball.

Phillies at Cardinals +125 – Sometimes you have to go right back to the well for the same reasons you played a Game the day before. You have the two of the best teams in the National League ending their 3 Game series. After dropping the first Game by a whopping 18 runs, the Cards look to win their 15th series of the season and break a 4 series losing streak against the Phillies. No Pujoles, however, the Cards are at home, they are one of the best teams in the NL, they at are going up against Brett Myers who is 3-8 with a 5.34 era and the Phillies are only hitting .200 if you take away their 20 run outburst two nights ago. All this and you get a price of +125. It’s a long term play you simply have to make.

Yankees – 125 at Astros – While betting underdogs is one of the keys to successful baseball betting, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for favorites. As a general rule of thumb, you should never be betting favorites at a price of more than -130. You simply can’t win long term doing so. But there is room to lay -130 or less and this is an example of that. Baseball is all about streaks. Winning streaks and losing streaks. Here we have the Yankees at 3 Games above .500 for the first time all year, on a 3 Game winning streak, 7-3 their last 10 and sending Chien-Ming Wang to the hill to attempt to stay perfect on the road this year (7-2 overall with a 4.30 era). He’ll be taking on a slumping Astro team which has dropped 13 of it’s last 16 Games! Could the Yankees be making their move? They haven’t had a major strak to speak of all year long and certainly, the timing is right.

Padres + 148 at Indians – Some plays are just common sense. again, you have to remember, when you make a play in baseball, you are not necessarily expecting to win it. Hard for most baseball bettors to grasp this concept. When you make a play, you are basically saying, the odds are wrong. If I make this same play 1000 times, I will win it enough to show a profit. Playing with that mindset, will produce long term profits. Such is the case in this match up today. The Indians really shouldn’t be favored -158 over anyone. They really aren’t very good and are always a threat to lose with that bullpen. They throw Sabathia today who may be getting respect based on the past rather than the present. He’s 4-8 on the year with a 4.34. The Padres are hot, going 8-2 over their last 10 Games and worth a shot today.

BREAK EVEN CHART

Moneyline Loss Win Win %
required -320 -320 100 76.19% -300 -300 100 75.00% -280 -280 100 73.68% -270 -270 100 72.97% -260 -260 100 72.22% -250 -250 100 71.43% -240 -240 100 70.59% -230 -230 100 69.70% -220 -220 100 68.75% -210 -210 100 67.74% -200 -200 100 66.67% -180 -180 100 64.29% -170 -170 100 62.96% -160 -160 100 61.54% -150 -150 100 60.00% -140 -140 100 58.33% -130 -130 100 56.52% -120 -120 100 54.55% -110 -110 100 52.38% -105 -105 100 51.22% -100 -100 100 50.00% 105 -100 105 48.78% 110 -100 110 47.62% 120 -100 120 45.45% 130 -100 130 43.48% 140 -100 140 41.67% 150 -100 140 41.67% 160 -100 160 38.46% 170 -100 170 37.04% 180 -100 180 35.71% 200 -100 200 33.33% 210 -100 210 32.26% 220 -100 220 31.25% 230 -100 230 30.30% 240 -100 240 29.41% 250 -100 250 28.57% 260 -100 260 27.78% 270 -100 270 27.03% 280 -100 280 26.32% 290 -100 290 25.64% 300 -100 300 25.00%

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Interleage Finale – Subway Series

6/27

While many argue that Interleague play is a waste of time, this is a weekend that would counter that argument. Personally, I’m not a fan of Inter League play. I mean, who really wants to watch the hapless Indians play the pathetic Giants? But this weekend is what makes interleague play worthwhile. We have several series with some juice this weekend. Starting in New York, we have the Subway series between the Mets and Yankees which gets started with a day night double header in two different ball parks. We have the Red Line series, also called the Cross Town Classic between the Cubs and Chisox as the Chisox try to avenge last weeks sweep. Lastly we have the Freeway series between the Angels and Dodgers which goes at 10:40 pm est. In my opinion, Interleague play should be kept to the rivalries.

I’ve got 2 solid plays going tonight as Premium plays which makes it tough to come up with anything more than a lean on the rest of the card. So rather than look at any one Game, I’ll take a look at a few that might be worth a closer look. Let’s start with the Reds at Indians. Yes, it’s Sabathia on the mound, and yes, it’s the Reds. But the Indians are just a few days away from more than likely being in sole possession of last place in the AL Central (currently tied with Royals) where they will likely remain for the duration. They are a terrible baseball team. Point being, they aren’t worthy of being a -200 favorite. Ever.

The Tigers may be worth a look. They are red hot having won 14 of 18 while the Rockies have lost 4 straight. The price is reasonable at -123 or so. As is the price on the Angels tonight in the night cap in LA. Thy have won 9 of 11 from the Dodgers and send 11-3 Joe Saunders to the hill tonight while the Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 6 Games. -125 not a terrible price to lay here

I’m glad Interleague comes to a close tonight. I’m looking forward to getting back to League play. But I’m also looking forward to a few of these matchups over the weekend. Matchups like the ones mentioned in the opening paragraph almost make it worthwhile to have to sit through the Indians and Giants. Almost……enjoy!

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Let’s start with the National League East, the division that most believe will field the best team in the National League, the New York Mets. It looks like many believe the Mets could win more Games than anyone in all of Major League Baseball. At 5dimes.com, the Mets win total is 93.5 over -125. Which translates to about 94 wins on the year. That would of course have the Mets in 1st in the East but not by a landslide as the Braves and Phillies are getting some play about 6 Games behind the Mets at 87 wins. The Braves were posted at 84.5 wins or so and bettors felt that number was too low. Money has come in on the Braves to win more than that, so it looks like the betting public thinks the Braves will continue to be a thorn in the Mets side. Meanwhile the Phillies have held steady at 87.5 wins with the Florida and Washington fighting it out for last place. Our National League East Predictions are:

NL East

Mets

Braves

Philles

Nationals

Marlins

The National League West looks to be the most tightly contested race with 4 teams clearly in the mix. It looks like bettors feel the Diamondbacks and Dodgers will battle it out for first with somewhere around 87 or 88 wins. Next up are the Padres and Rockies doing battle for 3rd place. There has been enough action on the Rockies to indicate bettors think they can perhaps edge out the Padres and then bringing up the rear would be the San Francisco Giants. Our final predictions for the NL West are as follows:

NL West

Dodgers

Diamondbacks

Rockies

Padres

Giants

Lastly, in the National League Central Division we have what looks like a two team race according to the Nations baseball bettors. The Cubs have held steady at a predicted 87.5 wins but bettors feel the Brewers will be hot on their tails all year. The Brewers opened up at 84.5 wins but the money has come in on the over. Another team that looks like the oddsmakers may have overlooked when they posted their initial odds, is the Houston Astros. They opened as low as 72.5 wins and bettors pounded the over pushing that line to 76 wins. So, after the Cubs and Brewers it looks like the Astros, Reds and Cardinals will all battle it out with each team expected to win around 77 Games. The Pirates look to be the basement dwellers. With the National League Central Division looking a bit wide open, we’ll go out on a limb just a little for Our 2008 predictions.

NL Central

Brewers

Astros

Cubs

Reds

Cardinals

Pirates

In reality, it looks like bettors favor the Brewers and Cubs to be on top be we threw the Astros into the mix as a potential upset special. We’ll, that does it for the National League. Let’s play ball!!!

CARDS HOST CUBS

7/4/08

We got almost exactly what we expected last night in the Yankee/Bosox Game. Pettitte got shelled but unfortunately, the Yanks never got to Lester. We actually used the Bosox and Over as Premium plays last night ending up with a split and enough profit to buy about 2 gallons of gas. We mentioned yesterday that the dog in the series is always worth a look. Beckett against Rasner might appear to be a mismatch, but there’s really no such thing as a mismatch when these two hook up. Rasner has been banged around a bit, but he is 3-1 at home this year with a 2.08 era.

Another “division home dog” today is the Cards. At first glance the Cubs would seem to have the pitching edge with Zambrano over Looper but we catch Zambrano coming off the DL and there are legitimate question marks. Before going on the DL he was 0-3 his last 3 starts with an era of 5.75. So, maybe we catch a rusty Zambrano. Or, even better, perhaps there’s more to the shoulder injury than we know. The Cubs have won just two of their last 10 road Games but have had the Cards number in general, going 11-5 against the Cards their last 16 Games.

The above two Games stand out as the most interesting today. Games involving teams that figure to factor into the big picture at some point. You could probably throw the Mets/Phillies Game into the mix as well. I’ve mentioned numerous times on these pages that I feel a run is coming with the Mets. I have a hunch it will be the exact opposite from last year. Last year, the Mets had a historical collapse down the stretch. I have a feeling the Mets will play their best baseball of the season, down the stretch this year. We shall see. In the meantime, they aren’t worth backing as favorites regardless of who is on the hill.

Happy 4th of July to everyone. Good Luck!

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TIGERS CHASE TWINS

6/30

First – Congrats to all of you who joined me yesterday with the big 4% play on the Angels. It wasn’t as easy as expected, but we did cash the ticket. 1-0 or 10-0, still gets the money. Nice 2-0 day with the Premium releases yesterday with the other winner being on the Cards. Two plays on tap for today. You can check them out right here.

Thankfully, we’re back to League play. We have a couple of solid weeks of traditional baseball before the All Star break, so plenty of time to put together a nice run. Aside from the two premium plays today, there are a couple of other Games that could present some value, and may even be added to the ticket. We can start right at the top of the card with the Mets and Cards squaring off for the first time this year. Just about everyone in baseball expects the Mets to put together a major run at some point. The Talent is there. But my recommendation is to wait on the Mets for now. They are still a .500 team, right where they were when Randolph got the axe. No need to jump on the Mets until you see signs of the run coming. So far, no signs.

Marlins -135 over Senators – While I have no opinion here, some sharp players apparently do. This Game opened up -117 at Pinnacle Sports and was quickly bet up to -138 where it sits now. For me, the value is gone, but this one might be worth a peek if the number drops.

Orioles -102 over Royals – You should be able to tell by now if you read these pages daily, I’m not a big fan of the Royals. Despite putting together one very impressive stretch, the Royals still sit in the basement and have now started a new streak. A losing one. They have lost 2 straight and face a Baltimore team that has been money in the bank when facing righties at home this year. This could be a nice spot here, even with Greinke on the mound as I think the Royals return to form, which is a below .500 team.

Tigers at Twins – No opinion on this one but could there be two hotter teams? This is what baseball is all about. Two of the hottest teams in baseball, from the same division and in 2nd and 3rd place hooking up for a crucial series. While the Tigers appear to have the edges, watch out for those home dogs in division Games. Many a baseball handicapper has profited from those dogs over the years.

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A Preview Of The 2008 All-Star Game/Tuesday, July 15

While the MLB All Star Game is looked at as a break by most baseball bettors, for the sharps, it’s another betting opportunity to profit with. Bookmakers, in an attempt to create interest and action, often offer as many props and side wagers as they do on the Super Bowl. There will be prop bets on hits, runs, walks, homeruns, you name. Not to mention odds on all of the festivities leading up to the Game, such as the Home Run Derby. So do your homework. Check out all the props as they are posted at 5dimes.com

This year’s classic will be played at historic Yankee Stadium, which will closed its’ gates forever at the end of this season. Yankee Stadium will be the MVP of this Game as baseball bids goodbye to the most storied arena in sports. Expect a marathon preGame show, because an infield full of Yankee greats and Hall of Famers are slated to be honored. Expect also to see a massive photographer scrum in the stands if Madonna shows up to cheer on Alex Rodriguez. And oh yes, the Game counts for something — the winning league secures home field advantage for its representative in the World Series this October.

since 1997 the American League has pitched a shut out going 10-0-1. They accomplished that unbelievable trend with patience, power and sprinkled in was speed. Can they do it again with those ingredients or has the National League stirred up a better recipe? Let’s look at both leagues for tonight’s Game.

The NL Quick Facts For The Starters: Soto is chasing Piazza-type numbers: Soto is chasing Piazza-type numbers:

Astros 1B Lance Berkman returned to the starting lineup Monday against the Pirates after missing one Game because of an eye irritation. Berkman had a RBI double in Four at-bats. He also walked once, and now has 29 doubles and 70 RBI on the season

Utley is batting .200 (4-for-20) over his last five Games, but he has two home runs during that stretch.

Chipper Jones’ average keeps dropping and his major league-leading average has sunk to .379. Only once since Ralph Garr’s 1974 batting title with Atlanta had a Brave led the NL in hitting.

Ramirez was hitless in his first two Games after returning from a personal leave of absence, but he has shown his All-Star form in the last two Games sMACking 4 hits.

Braun is a young hitter who is going to go through patterns of hot and cold. He seems to be completely over his hand injury. His power potential makes him one of many dangerous hitters in this lineup.

Fukudome has just six hits in his last nine Games and doesn’t have a multi-hit Game since June 27. Luckily, the All-Star voting didn’t start at the beginning of July because Fukudome because he has been anything but in the last few weeks.

The AL Quick Facts For The Starters: Mauer now has two homers in his last seven Games, matching the total from his first 71 Games this season. Power surge? Unlikely, but Mauer is one of the best hitters in baseball.

Youkilis has hit over .300 every month of the season, and you have to love that kind of consistency.

2B Dustin Pedroia extended his career-best hitting streak to 16 Games with a sixth-inning single Tuesday against the Twins. He finished 2-for-4 with a run scored. He’s batting .486 (34-for-70) during the streak.

Alex Rodriguez tied Mickey Mantle for 13th place on the home run list, hitting No. 536 Sunday night in the New York Yankees’ Game against the Boston Red Sox. Rodriguez’s 18th home run of the season came in the second inning against Boston knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. A-Rod took a curtain call after circling the bases. Next up for the 32-year-old Rodriguez is Mike Schmidt, who finished with 548 homers. Mantle hit all of his homers for the Yankees in a career that began in 1951 and ended in 1968. Rodriguez has 191 homers since joining the Yankees in 2004.

Jeter is heating up heading into the break.

Ramirez is still hitting only .208 (5-for-24) in July, but he’s too good of a hitter not to break out of this slump soon. He remains one of the better power hitters in baseball.

Josh Hamilton leads baseball with 87 RBI’s. Enough said.

Ichiro is finally hitting over .300 and has begun to heat in recent weeks. He used his recent hot streak to solidify another All-Star selection.

Final Thought: The Game feels like an offensive display and the AL Pitching looks a little better.

Main Pick: Over

Side Pick: AL