2012 – Bettors World

Texans Patriots Playoffs Pick

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 19:28:00 +0000

Texans

vs.

Patriots

AFC Divisional Playoff

Pick with Analysis

1/13/13

The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in the final divisional round playoff Game of the weekend. The Patriots are currently -9.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a total of 47.5. The betting trends at the world largest sportsbook, sportsbook.ag, show 73% of the action thus far as been on the Patriots and 76% has been on the over.

It’s doubtful that all of the home favorites are going to win this week, let alone cover. But which of the visiting dogs is going to pull the upset? Will it be the Ravens in Denver? The Packers in San Fran? Seattle in Atlanta? Or will the Texans pull the biggest shocker of all and upset the Pats? Certainly the Packers and Seahawks would be leading upset candidates this weekend and it really wouldn’t surprise anyone if they won. But the Texans?

If we break it down by the numbers, the Patriots are a slam dunk to win and cover. Using season to date stats, we’d make the number -10 which is right in line with the current line. If we look at the stretch run, the last 6 Games, it comes up all Pats. No surprise there. The Pats simply win in the 2nd half of the season. Belichick is 45-7 in December as head coach of the Patriots. When you combine that with the Texans slide this year, it should be no surprise that in the last 6 Games the Patriots yards per point differential is 12 points better than the Texans and that’s before adjusting for home field advantage. The Texans numbers resemble those of a last place team with an 18.8 on offense and a 13.9 on defense. Very poor.

But what we have to remember here, is that the differeNCe between the NFL elite and the bottom dwellers is very small in the. With the exception of say, a team like the Chiefs this year, take most teams in the bottom half of the NFL and play them against a team in the top 5 and that team in the bottom half, unlike in college ball, can win. They may not win more than oNCe every 5 tries or so, but they can win. That’s important to note here because the Texans are NOT in the bottom half.

Let’s go back to December 10th, a 42-14 Patriots win. The Texans came into Foxboro as -5.5 point underdogs. They were 11-1 overall and 6-1 on the road, facing a Patriot team that was 9-3, 5-1 at home. Plenty of handicappers, iNCluding yours truly, felt the Texans would come in and rise to the occasion under the Monday Night lights. At the time, heading into that Game, all of the numbers we like to use pointed towards a field goal Game. Somewhere between then and now, this Game turned into a mismatch.

What happened to the Texans? Well, heading into that Game, the Texans had already cliNChed a Wild Card birth. When a team knows it’s already in, it can have a neGAtive impact on the team mentally. That sense of urgeNCy is gone. The season isn’t on the line. It happens to teams year after year. I think in this spot, the Texans may not be that 11-1 team, but they also may not be the same team that faltered down the stretch. They are, perhaps, somewhere between those two extremes which would give them a good shot at keeping this Game competitive and then, who knows, dare to dream.

It’s not as if we have no precedent here. Teams that lost regular season meetings by 28 points or more and then faced that team in the playoffs are 11-11 in those playoff Games and those losers of the first Game have won 3 of the last 5 times. These Patriots were involved in one of those Games. In 2010 they beat the Jets 45-3 in the regular season only to lose to them in the playoffs, at home. Let’s also not forget what the Ravens did to the unbeatable Belichick and Brady a few years back in Foxboro in the playoffs. That Game was over in the 1st quarter. So, the unlikely result may be more likely than we think.

The Cardinals beat the Patriots in Foxboro this year. The Jets came within 3, at Foxboro this year and the Bills came within 6, again, at Foxboro this year. On the road for the Pats, the pathetic Jags (no home field advantage) and the Dolphins both came within a TD. Now, does anyone think any of those teams are better than the Texans? The Texans went on the road and beat Peyton Manning and the Broncos this year and the blew the doors off the Ravens 43-13 at home.

The 1st quarter of this Game will go a long ways towards deciding the outcome. Last time around, it was 21-0 with 11 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter. Any Game plan that the Texans had coming into that Game, which likely includeda heavy dose of Arian Foster, had to be tossed. The Texans went to the air and the Pats knew they would. We all know what happened. It’s not as if the Pats stopped Foster. He had just 15 carries and 46 yards. You can’t play catch up by running the ball. against the Bengals last week Foster carried the ball 32 times for 140 yards.

The Texans can make this interesting by getting the running Game going. They can get the running Game going by hitting a couple of big pass plays early in this Game. That will keep the Pats defense honest and we’ll then have a Game on Our hands. The Patriots rank 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, so it’s not as if this isn’t a very real possibility. In fact, if you look across the board, these two teams are pretty close in many stat categories. Both are top 10 running the ball. Both are top 11 in the passing Game. Both are top 10 against the run. Now, the Pats 29th ranked pass defense is partly due to their having such big leads in Games, and we are mindful of that. But there lies the Texans chance.

The bottom line for us in here is that we think you’re going to see the 11-1 Texans show up here, not the team that stumbled down the stretch. The talent is there to make this one of the more exciting Games of the weekend. We wouldn’t be shocked to see the Pats win and cover, but we would be shocked to see another 42-14 Game. By the same token we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Texans pull the upset and certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the Texans cover. The under 47.5 may be worth a look here as well. If the Texans are able to get their Game going, they are going to keep Brady and company off the field as much as possible. Their best shot is a low scoring affair.

We’re going to want +10 with the Texans. Currently that would be +10 -125 at 5 Dimes, so watch the board. Patriot money is bound to make that price a little cheaper before kick off. In the mean time, we’ll put this play out at -125 as the most we’d lay. Texans +10 -125 and Under 47.5

Giants 49ers Pick

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Giants

vs.

49ers

By
John J. Raspanti

10/14/12

The last time the Giants (3-2) and 49ers (4-1) met, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, a pair of crucial turnovers proved to be the differeNCe. That day San Francisco’s offense struggled against the Giants tightfisted defense.

A repeat performance seems unlikely with the 49er offense putting up some of it’s best numbers and the Giants defense struggling. Quarterback Alex Smith (sprained finger last weekend) leads the league with a passing rating of 108.7. Smith has thrown eight touchdown passes and been intercepted oNCe. Running back Frank Gore is having another beastly season. The 29-year-old is averaging over five yards a carry. Wide receiver Michael Crabtree leads the team with 27 receptions. The 49ers are tied for third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 29.8 points per Game.

San Francisco has outscored it’s last two opponents by a 79-3 margin.

“The talent level has been upgraded,” said coach Jim Harbough this week.

The Giants have been just as impressive offensively averaging 30.4 points per Game. In last weeks thrashing of the Cleveland Browns 41-27, teammates Ahmad Bradshaw and Victor Cruz rushed for over 200 yards and scored three touchdowns.

Quarterback Eli Manning has completed 65 percent of his passes and thrown 10 touchdowns. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw exploded for 200 yards against the Browns. Andre Brown is averaging over five yards a carry (as is Bradshaw). Manning’s favorite target is speedy Victor Cruz and his 37 receptions. Cruz burned the 49er defense last year with 10 catches for 142 yards.

The Giant defense is giving up a total of 22 points a Game this season.

“We’ve definitely got to continue to get better,” said middle linebacker Chase Blackburn.

The 49ers are second in the league defensively, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks. Their defense is allowing only 13.6 points per Game. Linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis lead the team in tackles with 49, and 42 respectably. Defensive end Aldon Smith has recorded Four and a half sacks.

San Francisco has had their eye on this Game for months.

“Of course after what happened last year I definitely want to get back at these guys,” said Kyle Williams who muffed two punts in last years championship Game. “We look at it as if they have something that we should have had.”

The Giants need their defense to play much better to beat the 49ers again.

Bettorsworld Bottom Line – The Giants Game last season defined the 49ers season. Oh so close. The offseason moves the 49ers made this year were made to win this very Game. This 49ers team dominated defensively last year but came up short offensively. It looks as though the moves they made have already paid dividends as the 49ers offense is 6th best in the NFL when using yards per point as a measuring stick, to go along with that stellar defense.

The Giants numbers aren’t too shabby, but the Niners are better. We simply don’t see them losing here. If you’re looking for a team to play in a teaser this week, use the 49ers and bring them down to pk. As far as covering the -6 or -6.5, you simply cannot bet the Giants here just because you think they’ll lose, but “hang” within the number. If you’re betting the Giants, it had better be because you think they’ll win this one straight up, making the points a bonus.

We’re never crazy about laying more than a field goal in the NFL. Especially against an offense like the Giants and a QB like Eli Manning. But it’s the only way to go here. We feel the 49ers will be the last NFC team standing this year, and quite possibly, the last NFL team standing. That said, expect to see one of the best 49ers performances of the year in this spot as they beat up on the team that kept them from the Super Bowl last season. To the 49ers, this is a measuring stick and we expect them to deliver with flying colors here by beating the Giants on both sides of the ball from start to finish. 49ers -6.5

Steelers Ravens Week 13 Pick

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Steelers (6-5

Ravens (9-2)

By
John J. Raspanti

12/2/12

Will Ben Roethlisberger play? That’s the main question leading into Sunday’s rematch between the Baltimore Ravens (9-2) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. A win by the home team cliNChes a playoff spot — and perhaps the AFC North title if they can beat the Steelers for the second time in three weeks. The Ravens were lucky to get past San Diego last weekend 16-13.

Roethlisberger injured his rib and shoulder three weeks ago in Kansas City. He was limited in practice on Wednesday. With the Steelers playoff hopes hinging on a victory, it seems likely that Roethlisberger will try to play.

If he can’t go, 15-year veteran Charlie Batch will start.

“We have to figure out what we need to do,” Batch said. “In order for us to get to where we want to get to, we have to start winning.”

The Steelers offense turned the ball over eight times in a nightmarish 20-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is hopeful that his return (from an ankle injury) will give his team a boost.

“Hopefully, I can help bring back some order to this team,” said Brown.

Pittsburgh’s running Game has virtually disappeared. Jonathon Dwyer, who GAined 55 yards against the Ravens two weeks ago, will get the start.

During the Ravens Four-Game winning streak, the injury-plagued defense has bouNCed back and played sound football. The unit lost linebacker Ray Lewis and cornerback LAdarius Webb to season ending injuries Four weeks ago. since giving up 43 points to the Texans, the defense has allowed an average of 14.4 points per Game during their Four-Game winning streak.

“We are improving on defense, and we improved throughout the course of the Game,” said coach John Harbaugh.

Baltimore’s offense has done just enough to contribute to the teams’ recent winning streak. Running back Ray Rice rushed for 97 yards against the Chargers. Quarterback Joe FlACCo has completed 60 percent of his passes. At M&T Bank Stadium, FlACCo has put up some of his best numbers. The Ravens have also won 15 straight regular season Games.

The Steelers defense could see safety Troy Polamalu on the field for the first time since he suffered a calf injury in Week 5.

The yards per point stat truly is a fool proof stat which is why we love using it. It doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story in all cases, but it does paint a full picture of a team as a whole. Here is what we mean by that. Take the Steelers defense. Ok, it’s pretty good. How then, do they have a defensive yards per point number of 13.5 which places them among the worst in the league? How about turning the ball over in your own end and giving up points as a result? That’s one way. Opponents haven’t had to travel as far to put a point on the board against the Steelers. Either way, it’s a reflection on the team as a whole. A sloppy team that simply hasn’t been able to put it together this year.

The Ravens defensive number of 18 an change, on the other hand, puts them among the best in the NFL. Yet they are 26th against the run and 23rd against the pass. But when looking at points allowed, they are 7th in the NFL. That’s a good indication that this team has a bit if a bend but don’t break defense that’s pretty good in the red zone.

However the numbers got to be, is kind of irrelevant. What they do tell us, is that the Ravens have the better football team this year and will likely come out on top, at home, in this one against the hated Steelers and that’s with or without Big Ben. Unfortunately, due to the status of Big Ben, there are no lines posted on this Game. But 6 of the last 8 in this series have been decided by a field goal. With Big Ben the Ravens will likely be a field goal favorite. Without, you’re looking at 6 or 7. We’d take the Ravens here at -3 or better.

NFL Week 3 Picks

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Week 3 NFL

Picks againt the Spread

9/23/12

Here we take a quick look around the NFL and offer a few words and a pick for each Game, week 3. Any Game not includedhere, has a longer write up which can be found on Our home page.

Rams +7.5 over Bears – After just two Games it’s evident that the 2012 Rams have taken on the personality of their coach, Jeff Fisher. His Titan teams were always tough and Fisher proved over the years to be one of the better coaches in the NFL. That rends continues in St Louis so we’ll grab the spot here with a Rams team that will get better and better.

49ers -6.5 over Vikings – Until proven otherwise, in Our eyes, the 49ers are the class of the NFL. The Vikings squeaked by the Jags and lost to the Colts. The Vikings have a shaky offensive line which presents major problems going up against this 49er defense. Only one way to look here.

Lions -3.5 over Titans – Football handicappers have a tendeNCy to over analyze Games at times. CoNCentrating on obscure trends and angles. Sometimes you simply have to strip it down and go with the obvious. In this instaNCe, the Lions are simply the better football team that is further along in their progression of becoming a contender. They bouNCe back after last weeks loss in San Fran.

Bengals +3 over Redskins – The Skins win over the Saints looking less impressive and they couldn’t hold a big lead last week which could carry over have an impact here. Love what RG3 is doing in Washington as this is an exciting team now, but they are not a complete team. Remember, the Bengals were a playoff team a year ago.

Jets -2.5 over Dolphins – If the Jets come up short here they’ll be calling for Ryan’s head in New York (many are already). Honestly, if the Jets made Tebow a fullback they’d have one of the best rushing Games in the NFL and could become the pound it out type of team they have always wanted to be. Am I the only one that can see that? The Jets can’t let this one slip.

Chiefs +8 over Saints – The logical choice here would be the Saints. But the NFL isn’t always logical. The Saints are a hefty favorite based on reputation only. Not their play on the field. Right now, these are just two bad teams that have each given up 40 and 35 points in their first two Games.

Browns +3 -120 over Bills – So let’s see, the Bills GAve up 48 points in week 1 to a Jets team that couldn’t put the ball in the end zone the entire pre season, they then come home and beat the hapless Chiefs and now all of a sudden their a road favorite?

Jags +3 over Colts – GAbbert further along than LUck at this point with a year and change under his belt. LUck will continue to see new looks and will make mistakes. Colts shouldn’t be favored. Not yet.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles – Still no respect for the undefeated Cards. The Eagles are winning despite all the turnovers, which could be scary. But Cards are playing some solid football which give this Game a heck of a chance to be decided late. We’ll grab the field goal with the home dog.

Chargers -3 over Falcons – Nice matchup. Tough call. Two undefeated teams. Falcons have had the short prep week having played on Monday night and then the cross country trip for the Game, not to mention the off the field problems with Turner.

Steelers -3.5 over Raiders – We think the Steelers are down a notch or two and may run into some trouble this year. But not here.

Bears Packers

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Bears

vs.

Packers

By
John J. Raspanti　
　
9/13/12

The Bears and the Packers reignite their rivalry in a special Thursday night Game at LAmbeau field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers have won the last Four meetings between the teams (Bears still hold an overall edge 92-86) iNCluding a 27-17 thrashing in 2011. (NFC championship Game) The Packers are -5.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes sportsbook with a total of 51.5

The Bears jumped all over the lowly Colts last weekend, but not before falling behind early. Their offense line, always an issue in Chicagoland, looked shaky. Jay Cutler missed on 11 of his first 12 passes, but still ended the Game completing 21 of 35 for 333 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Matt Forte was in midseason form. He rushed for 80 yards and caught three passes out of the backfield. Free agent running Michael Bush added 42 yards and two scores.

Brandon Marshall’s Chicago career got off to a rollicking good start. The former Dolphin caught nine passes for 119 yards. His size and strength give the Bears something they’d never had. Rookie wideout Alshon Jeffrey and Cutler hooked for a beautiful 42-yard touchdown late in the Game.

The Packers looked shell-shocked after the San Francisco 49ers waltzed into Green Bay and beat them 30-22. Aaron Rodgers completed 30-44 passes for over 300 yards, but it wasn’t enough. Former Bear and new running back Cedric Benson could muster only 18 yards on the ground. Credit has to be given to the stingy 49er defense. Wide receivers James Jones and Randall Cobb caught 13 passes between them for over a 150 yards. Jordy Nelson grabbed five passes for 68 yards.

Brian Urlacher is the glue that holds the Bear defense together. His surgically repaired knee survived the Colts Game. Coach Lovie Smith wisely removed the future Hall of Famer after halftime. Julius Peppers chipped in with three tackles and a fumble recovery. Defensive end Henry Melton collected two sacks. Cornerback Tim Jennings snagged two interceptions after replacing an injured Charles Tillman.

The Packer defense was outplayed by the 49er offense. Quarterback Alex Smith played well, completing 20 of 26 passes (QB rating 125) Running back Frank Gore sliced and diced his way to 112 yards. Linebackers A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews played extremely well. Hawk lead the team with 14 tackles, while Matthews sacked Smith twice. Cornerback Charles Woodson also had a good Game, sacking Smith as well.

The Bears offense is explosive. Jay Cutler loves his new toys. The defense is another story. The Pack will be extra fired up. There’s no way they want to lose two Games in a row to start the season. Short week of prep should have more of an impact on the visiting Bears here. Pack should get the win here which means the cover is likely to follow. Packers -5.5

Ravens Seahawks

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Ravens

vs.

Texans

John J. Raspanti

10/21/12

The Ravens travel to Houston to challenge the humbled Texans in a battle of first place teams. The Ravens will be without the heart and soul of their defense, inside linebacker Ray Lewis, who completely tore his right triceps mUSCle in Sunday’s win over the Dallas Cowboys.

Lewis is out for the season.

The 37-year-old future Hall of famer has struggled at times this season. He’s leading the team in tackles (57) but had been being blocked on a routine basis by offensive linemen getting to the second level. However, Lewis is the emotional leader of the Raven defense. Also out for the season is cornerback LAdarious Webb who tore the ACL of his left knee.

Coach John Harbaugh discussed the impact of the injuries yesterday.

“There are guys who put so much effort, heart and soul into what they do,” said Harbaugh. “LArdarius was distraught; I could see it when he when I walked on the field in his face.

“Ray, in the locker room afterward didn’t know (the extent of the injury), but was worried about it.”

Baltimore’s offense (ranked 8th) will need to put more points on the scoreboard. They did well against the Cowboys (31 points), but for the first time in years, won’t have a dominating defense. The Ravens did get some good news. Linebacker Terrell Suggs was removed from the physically unable to perform list this week, placing him on the 53-man roster, the team annouNCed Tuesday.

Quarterback Joe FlACCo (eight touchdowns) has completed 62 percent of his passes. Running back Ray Rice has GAined 482 yards and scored five touchdowns. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin has caught 25 passes. second-year-man Torrey Smith is averaging 18.8 yards per catch. Tight end Dennis Pita is having another good season.

The Texans fully expected to handle the up and down Green Bay Packers. Instead, they found themselves on the wrong side of 42-24 shellacking. Houston coach GAry Kubiak said the loss was a team effort.

“Some undisciplined things that we did, that’s Our biggest coNCern today,” he said. “But I think across the board all three phases wasn’t good enough. Today we’ve got a lot of corrections to make and lots of soul searching to do, especially with this team we’ve got coming in here this week. It wasn’t one thing. It was a buNCh of things.”

Texas quarterback Matt SChaub has connected on 63 percent of his passes. Running back Arian Foster has GAined 561 yards through six Games. Foster has crossed the goal line seven times. Own Daniels leads all Texan receivers with 26 catches. Andre Johnson and James Casey are nice targets for SChaub.

Baltimore has won Four in a row. The Texans lost their first Game of the season against Green Bay.

This one is a very difficult Game to handicap. The Texans come in with the 2nd best yards per point number in the league offensively with a 12.6. Baltimore’s offensive number is 14.3, not bad. Defensively, the Ravens are where you would expect, #3 in the NFL with a very nice 20.1. The Texans however, drop to a mediocre 15.6 offensively after last weeks Game which places them in the middle of the pack.

If you look at the Texans Schedule, you’ll see that the two best offenses they played, the Broncos and Packers, had no trouble putting points on the board. The teams Houston has been able to keep in check have been the Jets, Titans, Jags and Dolphins. That’s enough evideNCe to question just how good the Texans really are.

The Ravens are also a shell of their former selves. Giving up 29 to Dallas at home and 30 to New England is very un-Raven-like. Like the Texans, they have been able to keep the bad teams in check. But you have to be coNCerned with the loss of Lewis, both on the field and with the leadership role he brings to the table.

This isn’t a Game we’ll be playing in the real world. We’d expect a big effort from the Texans this week in an attempt to bouNCe back from what can only be described as an embarrassing defeat on the national stage. But the numbers suggest this one might be closer than the spot. Ravens +7

Giants Redskins

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Giants (5-2)

vs.

Cowboys (3-3)

By
John J. Raspanti

10/28/12

The New York Giants (5-2) travel to Dallas in search of their Fourth straight win and some payback. The Cowboys (3-3) shocked the Giants 24-17 to open this years NFL season.

since losing to Philadelphia, the Giants have reeled off three impressive victories. They beat Cleveland, dominated the San Francisco 49ers, and snuck past a determined Washington Redskin squad.

Cowboy owner Jerry Jones told a crowd of Dallas fans at training camp that his team would “beat the Giants (butts)’ when New York visited Dallas stadium this week.

Safety Antrel Rolle was amused by Jones’ words.

“As far as Jerry Jones’ comment, we really don’t pay that any attention,” Rolle said.

Giant quarterback Eli Manning is having a standout season. Manning has completed almost 64 percent of his passes. He’s thrown for 12 touchdowns. The Giant offense ranks second in the league with an average of 295 yards threw the air. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has rushed for 492 yards. Backup running back Andre Brown is averaging five yards a carry. Wide receiver Victor Cruz is easily Manning’s favorite target. The third year pro has caught 50 passes and scored seven touchdowns.

Dallas has struggled at times this season, but another victory over the Giants would put them right back in contention for a division crown.

“When you think about NFC East Games, the way that they are playing, if you’re not able to get wins early against big teams, it can come back to haunt you,” said Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware.

Quarterback Tony Romo has bouNCed back after a terrible Game against the Chicago Bears. Romo’s stats are still average (eight touchdown passes, nine interceptions) but his completion percentage is a healthy 68 percent. Leading rusher DeMarco Murray is still recovering from a foot injury. His availability this Sunday is doubtful. New York has been sUSCeptible to the run this season, giving up an average of 126 yards.

Backup running back Felix Jones has a bruised knee. second year man Phillip Tanner will need to step up. Romo’s favorite targets are Dez Bryant (36 catches) and Jason Witten (33). Miles Austin is still dangerous.

Dallas’ Fourth ranked defense figures to be less effective without leading tackler Sean Lee. The starting linebacker was placed on injured reserve Wednesday. Lee will miss the rest of the season because of liGament damage to his right big toe.

The Giants are -2 point road favorites here and rightly so. They are the much better football team on both sides of the ball despite having lost at home to Dallas in the opener. Dallas has similar problems to the Stellers. The Cowboys may rank high defensively when it comes to yardage given up, but that doesn’t do a team any good if you can’t keep opponents out of the end zone. They have a defensive yards per point number of 13.1 which places them 27th in the NFL. The Giants rank 5th.

Ditto on offense for Dallas. They may GAin some yards offensively, but they can’t convert those yards into points. Their yards per point number on offense is 19.9, 31st in the NFL. The Giants are 12th.

Only one way to look here. No chance of the Giants not being focused for this divisional matchup after dropping the first Game. At -2, we’re just being asked to pick the winner here and that winner will be the New York Football Giants. Giants -2

Super Bowl 47 Pick

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Super Bowl 47

Ravens

vs.

49ers

Analysis and Score Predictions

2/3/13

The Baltimore Ravens will take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 47 in New Orleans this Sunday. The 49ers are currently -3.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a total of 47.5. The worlds largest sportsbook, sportsbook.ag has seen 64% of their action thus far come in on the Ravens side as well as 53% of their totals action on the over.

So is this the matchup you wanted? Is this the matchup you predicted? We’re you sick of the two main storylines, as we were, before the matchups were even official? Those being the Harbaugh brothers and the Ray Lewis story. Enough is enough. It gets old pretty quickly.

We’ll give you a few different predictions below using various methods. Before we get to that however, we’d make a suggestion to Our readers. Unless you have an angle here, a strong feeling one way or the other for whatever reason, it may be best to pass the side bet completely and focus on the prop bets. There are more prop bets for this Game than any other Game in any sport all year and no sportsbook posts more props than 5 Dimes Sportsbook. Do your homework and you can find an edge. There are simply too many props for any sportsbooks to track.

One shorTCUt to doing your own homework is to take advantage of other sharp players work. Monitor as many lines from as many different books as possible. Watch and see which props are moving in which direction and then try and find the old number available at another sportsbook. There are some sharps that absolutely destroy the props each and every year. Like taking candy from a baby.

Now, on to the Game.

For us, this Game is pretty much a coin flip. We see no strong edge either way here. Both teams deserve to be here. The 49ers were the better team from start to finish, but the Ravens, like the Giants last year, got healthy and hot at just the right time. If we look at Our NFL Score Prediction model, it tells the Ravens story well as it picks up on their recent success. The Score Prediction using season to date stats is San Fran 25 Baltimore 20. However, when using data from the last 7 Games it comes up 33-26 Baltimore and when using data from only the last 5 Games, it’s 38-25, Baltimore.

A case can be made for either side here. The case for the 49ers would simply be that they have been the better team from start to finish. They rank better than the Ravens in most major categories with the exception of offensive passing yards. They rank higher in rushing yards offensively and stopping the run defensively, the two most important categories in any football Game.

The case for the Ravens would obviously be that they are now healthy and playing their best football of the season and while the 49ers may rank a tad higher in most major stat categories, it’s just a tad and this is just one Game.

Before the season started we predicted that the 49ers would win the Super Bowl. In football predicting circles, it’s a cardinal sin to back off of that prediction at this point. That however, is exactly what we are going to do. From a statistical handicapping standpoint, this Game is simply too close not to take the points. One major advantage for the Ravens may very well be the QB. As great as Kaepernick has been, it’s still only his 10th NFL start. FlACCo has the big Game experieNCe and plenty of weapons. Defensively, the Ravens have already beaten Manning and Brady in consecutive weeks. Why not add Kaepernick to the pile.

Our model tells the story from a what have you done for me lately standpoint as the predictions favors the Ravens more strongly using more recent data. The less data used, i.e. from 7 Games to 5, the larger the predicted margin of victory. We’ll side with the team in better current form who also has, in Our opinion, the better QB. Both teams were contenders last year, but it’s the Ravens who have been perennial contenders, in the mix, year after year. Good chance they break through here. While were at it, we’ll also make a small play on the OVER as the NFL season has been far from a defensive showcase this year, with both of these teams participating in some high scoring shoot outs. Ravens +4 and Over 47.5

Don’t forget to check out those props!! – 5 Dimes Sportsbook

NFL Week 5 Picks

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Week 5

NFL Picks

Here, we go around the NFL and make a selection on each NFL Game on the board along with a comment or two. This week we’d advise using caution with these picks as it is a very favorite heavy card for us. We typically play dogs and small favs in the NFL, so be careful here!

10/7/12

Falcons -3 over Redskins – Falcons are by far the superior team here. With such a small number, only one way to look.

Packers -7 over Colts – The Packers numbers are mediocre and nothing to write home about. But the Colts numbers are worse. The Colts are on their way with Andrew LUck, but not in this spot. Call this a weak lean as we don’t like laying the touchdown, but it’s a Green Bay call.

Giants -8.5 over Browns – At anything less than -10, have to go with the Giants. The Browns offense simply can’t keep up with Eli here. Giants looking to bouNCe back after loss to Eagles and should have no problem doing so here.

Vikings -5.5 over Titans – Vikings yards per point numbers are roughly 14 on offense and 17 on defense. Pretty good. The Titans numbers are 15 on offense and 11 on defense. Pretty bad. Using those numbers to make a line, the Vikings would be favored by roughly 9 points. Vikings!

Bengals -3 over Dolphins – A weak call here but we’ll lean towards the Bengals at home as a result of having the much better offense in this matchup.

Ravens -6 over Chiefs – This is a whacky line. Almost looks too good to be true, which often times means stay away. But the Chiefs are 32nd in the NFL defensively when using yards per point numbers. Yes, that’s 32 out of 32 teams. Worse yet, they are 30th offensively. They are going up against one of the premiere teams in the NFL. On paper, this is a complete mismatch. But be careful, they don’t play the Games on paper!

Seahawks +3 over Panthers – Neither team has been able to move the ball consistently but the Seahawks have the better defense. The Under 43.5 also looks enticing here.

Bears -4.5 over Jags – One rule of thumb when handicapping the NFL is to focus on picking straight up winners as over 80% of the time, the straight up winner also covers the spread. With that in mind, the Bears are a better football team than the Jags and should get this one.

49ers -9.5 over Bills – again, the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL. Tough to lay a big number and equally tough to back a team that’s in off a blow out win like the Niners. In the real world, we’d never bet this Game as we simply don’t lay more than TD in the NFL. But force us to make a pick here and it’s San Fran.

Chargers +4 over Saints – Everyone keeps expecting the Saints to start winning. Everyone but us. The Saints aren’t as bad as their record, but the Chargers are better.

Broncos Patriots Week 5 Pick

Bettors World — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 10:15:00 +0000

Broncos

vs.

Patriots

By
John J. Raspanti

10/7/12

The Denver Broncos return to Gillette Stadium for the first time since last year’s playoff loss. The result of the Game (a 45-10 drubbing) conviNCed owner John Elway that he needed a new quarterback.

Enter Peyton Manning who signed a five-year, $96 million deal. Following some early season struggles, Manning found his grove in last weekends 37-6 rout of the Raiders. Unlike the Houston Game, where Manning completed only half his throws, the 36-year-old connected on 30 of 38 passes for a season-high 338 yards and three touchdowns. The Raiders barely touched Manning.

“The key that I’ve said all along is just trying to keep making progress somehow,” Manning said. “That doesn’t always show on the scoreboard.”

Running back Willis MaGAhee has rushed for 325 yards. Manning likes sure handed wide receiver Eric Decker (24 catches). Demaryius Thomas has scored twice and caught 21 balls.

The Patriots found themselves in a must-win position last week against the Buffalo Bills. They couldn’t afford to lose their third Game out of Four. In the second half, their offense blew the Game wide open. The final Scorewas 52-28 as Tom Brady completed 22 of 36 passes for 340 yards. Brady has only thrown one interception in the first Four Patriot Games. Wide receiver Brando Lloyd wants more consisteNCy from the offense.

“We need to do a better job starting the Game and that’s what we’re focused on,” Lloyd said.

second year running back Stevan Ridley has GAined 339 yards for New England. Speedy Brandon Balden had a breakout Game against the Bills (137 yards). His availability this weekend is questionable (knee injury). Though many consider him on the downside of his career, 31-year-old Wesley Welker is tied with Lloyd for the team lead in catches with 25. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has scored three touchdowns.

With Manning behind center, these two teams look to be very evenly matched. No reason this one won’t be close down the stretch which has us taking the points in this one. There are still some +7’s on the board but you’ll have to lay -120 to get them. Broncos +7 -120.