Packers Bears Week 4 Pick

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Packers

vs.

Bears

Week 4

Free NFL Pick

9/28/14

The Chicago Bears will host divisional Rival Green Bay on Sunday at Soldier Field. The Game opened with Chicago favored by -1 and is now Green Bay -1.5 at sportsbook.ag. The current total is 50 and a whopping 68% of the action taken on the side in this Game has come in on the Packers.

Sometimes in sports, particularly in the NFL, the betting public has a hard time letting go of teams. They remember the glory days, especially when those glory days weren’t that long ago, and those fond memories often show up in the betting lines.

The fond memories, and perhaps the assumption that coming off a Monday Nighter will hurt the Bears preparation, can be the only reasons the public has made the Packers a road favorite here. Because quite frankly, the Packers were just mediocre last year WITH Rodgers in the lineup and are just as mediocre, or worse, this year. True, we have just 3 Games to go on and it’s a long season, but their 1-2 start could easily be an 0-3 start had the New York Jets not fallen apart and allowed the Pack to come back from a 21-3 deficit.

The Bears are 2-1 and while their defense is still a question mark their offense is humming. It could very well end up being one of the top offenses in the NFL this year when all is said and done. It’s still a tad early to use yards per point numbers but to this point, the Bears rank #1 offensively with a ypp number of 12. The Packers offensive number is a very poor 16. Defensively, using yards per point, the Bears rank 7th overall while the Packers rank 8th worst.

With the line so low here, we’re just being asked to pick a straight up winner. We think the Bears are the better team and we also get the home field edge. The Packers have won and covered 4 straight in Chicago and there are some other ATS trends favoring the Packers, however we aren’t big trend guys here. All trends eventually turnaround. Bears +1.5

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