AFC Championship Game Preview and Prediction: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
The AFC Championship game is set, and it’s a rematch of some epic battles of recent years between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored by 2 points with a total of 47.5 (betonline). This game features two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
Historical Results in AFC Championship Games
The Bills and Chiefs both have a storied history in the AFC Championship game. Let’s take a chronological look at their journeys:
Buffalo Bills:
- 1988: Lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 21-10. This was their first appearance in the AFC Championship game.
- 1990: Defeated the Los Angeles Raiders 51-3. This victory propelled them to Super Bowl XXV, where they unfortunately lost to the New York Giants.
- 1991: Defeated the Denver Broncos 10-7. They went on to Super Bowl XXVI but lost to the Washington Redskins.
- 1992: Defeated the Miami Dolphins 29-10. This win sent them to Super Bowl XXVII, where they faced the Dallas Cowboys and lost.
- 1993: Defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 30-13. This marked their second victory over the Chiefs in an AFC Championship game and led them to Super Bowl XXVIII, where they lost to the Dallas Cowboys again.
- 2020: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 38-24. This was their most recent appearance in the AFC Championship game before this year.
Kansas City Chiefs:
- 1966: As the Dallas Texans, they lost to the Buffalo Bills 31-7 in the AFL Championship game.
- 1993: Lost to the Buffalo Bills 30-13. This was their first AFC Championship game appearance as the Kansas City Chiefs.
- 2018: Lost to the New England Patriots 37-31. This marked the beginning of their recent dominance in the AFC.
- 2019: Defeated the Tennessee Titans 35-24. This victory sent them to Super Bowl LIV, where they defeated the San Francisco 49ers.
- 2020: Defeated the Buffalo Bills 38-24. This was their second Super Bowl appearance in a row, and they emerged victorious against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- 2021: Lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24. This loss ended their streak of Super Bowl appearances.
- 2022: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20. This win led them to Super Bowl LVII, where they defeated the Philadelphia Eagles.
- 2023: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens 17-10. This was their most recent AFC Championship victory.
This is the third time these two teams have met in the AFC Championship game, with each team having won once previously.
Regular Season Records
Both the Bills and Chiefs had stellar regular seasons, securing the top two seeds in the AFC.
Buffalo Bills:
The Bills finished the 2024 regular season with a 13-4 record, earning the second seed in the AFC. They achieved several notable accomplishments:
- Won their fifth straight division title, a team record.
- Became the first team in NFL history to defeat two teams with 14 or more wins in the same season.
- Went undefeated at home with an 8-0 record.
- Allowed the fewest sacks (14) in the NFL for the second consecutive season.
- Finished the season with a league-low 8 turnovers.
Kansas City Chiefs:
The Chiefs finished the 2024 regular season with a league-best 15-2 record, securing the top seed in the AFC. They also had some impressive stats:
- Won the AFC West for the ninth consecutive year.
- Had a 7-2 record against playoff teams, tied for the best in the league.
- Achieved a league-best +11 turnover margin since Week 12.
Despite their impressive record, the Chiefs had a relatively low point differential of +59, the worst of any team with three or fewer losses since the 1970 merger. This suggests that they might have been slightly fortunate in some of their close wins.
Head-to-Head Records
The Bills and Chiefs have a budding rivalry, with their recent matchups often being close and highly competitive. During the 2024 regular season, they met once in Week 11, with the Bills emerging victorious with a 30-21 win. This was the Chiefs’ first loss of the season, highlighting the Bills’ ability to challenge them.
Interestingly, Josh Allen has a dominant 4-1 record against Patrick Mahomes in regular season games. However, when it comes to the playoffs, Mahomes has been undefeated against Allen, boasting a 3-0 record. This contrasting regular season vs. playoff performance adds another layer of intrigue to this AFC Championship matchup.
Injury Reports
Injuries are always a crucial factor in any football game, and this AFC Championship is no exception.
Buffalo Bills:
The Bills have a few key players on their injury report:
- Dion Dawkins (OT): Missed practice with an illness. Dawkins is a crucial part of the Bills’ offensive line, and his absence could significantly impact their ability to protect Josh Allen and establish the run game.
- Christian Benford (CB): In concussion protocol. Benford’s availability is uncertain, and his absence would weaken the Bills’ secondary against the Chiefs’ potent passing attack.
- Taylor Rapp (S): Dealing with a back/hip injury. Rapp’s injury could further deplete the Bills’ secondary.
- Matt Milano (LB): Has biceps and hamstring injuries. Milano is one of the Bills’ best defensive players, and his ability to play at full strength is crucial for their defense.
Kansas City Chiefs:
The Chiefs, on the other hand, appear to be relatively healthy:
- Patrick Mahomes (QB): Listed with an ankle injury but was a full participant in practice. Mahomes’ ankle injury has been a recurring issue this season, but he has shown resilience and the ability to play through it.
- Mike Caliendo (G), Jawaan Taylor (T), Jaylen Watson (CB): All listed on the injury report but were full participants in practice. Their full participation suggests that they are likely to play without limitations.
Our Pick
Our model uses different time frame parameters when making predictions. For example, one prediction uses full season data and has the Bills on top 24-22. But perhaps the strongest model run is the one that uses only data from the last 7 games. This model run filters out anything that happened in the beginning of the year and let’s be honest, how a team is playing right now, their currnt form, is what really matters.
Our model run using only the last 7 games has the Bills on top by a score of 28-19.
Honestly, most methods of coming up with a point difference between two teams, favors the Bills. The Chiefs, despite a 15-2 record, weren’t dominant statistically. They did what they had to do to win.
Of course, it’s Mahomes, the Chiefs are home, tons of playoff experience, etc.etc. They are the kings until someone knocks them off their perch. They’re tough to go against in this huge spot, but that’s exacty what we’re going to do here.