Colts at Rams Week 4 Preview: Undefeated Indianapolis Travels to Los Angeles

The undefeated Indianapolis Colts (3-0) head to SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon to face the Los Angeles Rams (2-1), who are looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking last-second loss to Philadelphia. MyBookie has installed the Rams as 3.5-point home favorites with a total set at 49.5 points for this 4:05 PM ET kickoff.

Tale of Two Momentum Shifts

Indianapolis enters this contest riding a wave of offensive efficiency that has carried them through three consecutive wins. The Colts opened their campaign with a dominant 33-8 thrashing of Miami before surviving a nail-biting 29-28 escape against Denver. Last weekend’s 41-20 demolition of Tennessee showcased their balanced attack, with the ground game leading the way behind Jonathan Taylor’s 338 rushing yards through three games – tops in the NFL.

Daniel Jones has settled into his role effectively, completing 71.6% of his passes for 816 yards and three touchdown passes while adding three more scores on the ground. The aerial attack has been distributed well, with Michael Pittman Jr. hauling in 16 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns, while Tyler Warren has emerged as a reliable target with 14 receptions for 193 yards.

Los Angeles started strong with narrow wins over Houston (14-9) and Tennessee (33-19), but last week’s 33-26 setback in Philadelphia highlighted some concerning trends. The Rams led 19-7 at halftime before being outscored 26-7 in the final two quarters, ultimately falling on a blocked field goal attempt. Matthew Stafford threw for 196 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while Kyren Williams carried 20 times for 94 yards in the losing effort.

Key Statistical Insights

Both teams rank among the league’s elite in yards per play differential at +1.6, tying them with Green Bay for the best mark in the NFL. However, Indianapolis holds a significant advantage in ball security, leading the league with a +5 turnover margin through three games. The Colts’ defense has generated seven sacks and four interceptions while protecting the football on offense.

The Colts have been particularly effective in September as underdogs, covering the spread in eight of their last nine September contests. Indianapolis has also thrived on the West Coast, with their last eight Sunday games in that region all going over the total points line.

Los Angeles brings some troubling trends into this matchup. The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Week 4 home games and have lost three of their last four Week 4 contests overall. Additionally, they’ve struggled as slight favorites, losing the first half in each of their last five games when favored by less than 3.5 points.

Individual Matchups to Watch

The Colts will look to continue feeding Taylor, who has recorded 96+ rushing yards in seven of their last eight games and has found the end zone in five of their last six contests. His 108+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last four West Coast games suggests he’s primed for another big performance.

For the Rams, Puka Nacua enters as the NFL’s leading receiver with 333 yards through three games. He’s recorded 98+ receiving yards in each of his last seven regular season home appearances. Kyren Williams has been reliable in the red zone, scoring the first touchdown in each of his last five home games and finding the end zone in each of his last nine Sunday home appearances.

Betting Trends Paint Clear Picture

The historical data strongly favors different outcomes depending on perspective. Los Angeles has won each of their last 12 Sunday games as favorites and covered the spread in each of their last six Sunday games as favorites. However, Indianapolis has a strong track record as September underdogs, winning four of their last five such contests.

The Colts face a concerning trend when playing NFC opponents as underdogs, having lost each of their last nine such games and failed to cover in each of their last six. Conversely, the Rams have dominated AFC South opponents, winning the first quarter in 11 of their last 12 meetings and scoring first in seven of their last eight encounters.

The Bottom Line

Despite our model projecting a 34-17 Rams win, we expect a much closer contest than those numbers suggest. Los Angeles should benefit from the home environment and motivation to rebound from last week’s devastating loss in Philadelphia. The Rams have shown they can score points, averaging 24.3 per game, and their defense has been opportunistic when healthy.

However, Indianapolis brings superior ball security and a more consistent offensive identity built around Taylor’s ground attack. The Colts’ defense has been stout, allowing just 18.7 points per game while forcing turnovers at a league-leading rate.

We anticipate Los Angeles to bounce back from that crushing blocked field goal loss and hand the Colts their first defeat of the season. The Rams’ experience in big games and home-field advantage should be enough to overcome Indianapolis’ perfect start.

Final Prediction: Rams win by a touchdown, covering the 3.5-point spread